Home > Commentary > 2010 Draft Prospectus – Part II

2010 Draft Prospectus – Part II

Welcome to part two of the 2010 Draft Prospectus, or as I like to call it, the “I really don’t think the Thunder will keep any of these picks if these are the individuals left on the board so they’d probably trade out of these prospects and the draft altogether at this point, which means we both might be wasting our time  going over the rest of the prospectus but anyways” continuation of the series.

To put it bluntly, from here on out, none of these guys would be able to contribute to the Thunder in the next two years in any meaningful way regarding all three of their areas of need: a true low-post offensive scoring threat, a defensive rebounding behemoth and, less so, a shot-blocking rim protector.

What you’ll find is that almost all of these individuals could probably shore up one, maybe even two of these off of the bench but when you’re expecting to pick out of the Top 10 in the draft, that’s the reality of the situation.  The issue moves then from what you know they can do to what they might also be able to develop further down the line and how they fit with your team.

But that’s the thing, the Thunder don’t need any more projects to stash away for two years in the hopes they they’ll develop, nor do they have the roster space to sacrifice for that to be a reality either.

And with all that being said, let’s just jump right into who the #2 prospect would be for the Thunder given a realistic expectation of where they could probably pick in this draft.

Disclaimer:  You might have missed this from yesterday’s installment because it was mentioned in the comments section, but I never feel right about basing my prospectus picks off of a player I’ve never seen, thereby going only off of what other people and stats have to say about a prospect. This is why the #2 slot could not go to Hassan Whiteside, who if I had ever been able to see play and thus could have seen if his numbers, skills and potential are as high as some gurus believe, he would probably have been an easy #2 prospect ahead of…

#2 – Solomon Alabi – 7’1, 245 – C – Florida State

Hasholomon Thalabi, er, Solomon Alabi, is certainly an intriguing prospect as a true, seven-foot big man. He’s a long and athletic center who can run very well for his size, a high character kid who is loved by his teammates, always plays hard, reportedly works even more tirelessly off of the court than he does on it and who is a tremendous shot-blocker because he’s also a great leaper with impressive timing (remember the timing part later).

Toss on a developing post game on the offensive end with even better offensive mechanics (guy shoots free throws better than most guards at 83%) than Hasheem Thabeet  had at the same age and experience (Alabi has only played basketball for just over six years reportedly) and needless to say there is certainly a lot to like about Alabi, especially since he is a tremendous paint defender and shot blocker but only averages around 2.2 fouls a game in college. Body control, people.

Did I mention that before he even played at Florida State most scouts and NBA executives would not have been able to say all of the positives I just listed about Alabi? Yes, he’s progressed that quickly while in Tallahassee.

But here’s the problem:  His low post offense does not include great vision, dribbling ability to cut to the rim, adequate strength for the position, passing skill…or REBOUNDING, either offensively or defensively.

Strength can be added, sure. And at 245 lbs Alabi has added weight and strength while in school so that’s not as much of a concern as his still very raw offensive game in the paint and his sub-par rebounding, which is almost shocking given his great leaping ability combined with his elite timing and body control capability. There’s no physical reason Alabi should not be pulling down double digit rebounds every game (only grabbing 7 a game) except for the fact that his technique and positioning leave much to be desired.

Oh yeah, and not to scare everyone, but Alabi also had a serious foot injury his first year at Florida State and as anyone around here can tell you, big men and potential lingering foot injuries just don’t mix well with the Thunder brass or the fans after we had a BAD–EXPERIENCE  (you cut me deep Tyson Chandler, cut me deep).

So given the fact that it would take Alabi 2-3 years to be anything more than a shot-blocking, paint protector off of the bench for the Thunder and the concerns about his raw offensive game never developing and his underwhelming rebounding status, I think a team that was not in the Thunder’s situation would gladly take Alabi in the late lottery and just give him the time he needs to potentially develop into a very imposing post presence on the defensive end. And if he can ever progress his offensive game and his rebounding to the level that his athleticism and hard work suggest he can, then look out.

But sadly for Solomon we ARE talking about the Thunder and not some other team who could gladly take him and wait.

That’s why Alabi is #2 on the Draft Prospectus. He’d be an amazing get for where the Thunder are picking–if they only had the extra room to stash another big man project away, because there certainly is a lot to like about Solomon Alabi.

Tune in tomorrow for #3…

J.G. Marking is the author of the inspirational book, “A Voice Is Calling.” He’s currently working on his first fiction novel, “The Gift of the Greenstone”

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justin :Chris Anderson with a jump shot might be more appropriate in terms of impact.

Ibaka is already close to being a bird-man type player. In fact I hoped his ceiling was that high over the summer. Now I think Ibaka can do much more. Concerning the Wallace comparisons someone mention 15 boards and 3 blocks a game. Given the minutes, Ibaka can match that.

@justin
The saddest part is that what caused the big blowup over there was exactly what Big Ben brought back this year: heart. Once they got him back, the Pistons sold their defensive soul to the devil. How coincidental.

It's too bad Dumars ruined the Pistons, it would have been nice to see Ben be productive on a good team again..

I drafted Ben Wallace in the last round of the Daily Thunder draft hoping to add some rebounds and blocks. He's got 3 less blocks on the season than Horford (whom I drafted in the 3rd Rd.), twice as many steals and 18 less rebounds. Horford's 23 and an all-star this year, Wallace is 35 AND STILL KICKING ASS! I don't think Serge can equal Ben Wallace, but I'll settle for getting close.

Chris Anderson with a jump shot might be more appropriate in terms of impact.

I just saw the "Ibaka could/will be Ben Wallace with a jump shot." I know Ibaka has some great things going, and a lot of people like him, but that comparison is just ridiculous. Ben Wallace was one of the greatest defensive/rebounding/shotblocking big men of all time. Ben Wallace has yearlong averages of 15+ rpg, 3.5 bpg, and 1.8 spg. And that was on possibly the slowest team ever in the shot-clock era, so those stats are even smaller than they could be almost anywhere else. Ben Wallace with a jump shot would, essentially, be the greatest center of all time.

I would love for Ibaka to be that good, but anyone expecting that is outside of their mind.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
I was with you on Thabeet, but after watching him play I think it's possible he could be a top-5 player from this draft in a few years. When you're really elite at one skill, you only have to be average at the other skills in order to be a valuable player. This is why I really like Whiteside, actually. I still have hope for Beasley and I'm proud to say I more or less nailed Noah.

@Sammy

The Jax eye test isn't great at predicting college-to-pros transition. Sadly.

I thought Lopez would be awesome, and I still think he's great. But he's the one guy that worked how I thought. Beasly has been disappointing, Noah better than expected, and David Lee WAY better than expected. Actually, I got Thabeet almost right. He isn't quite in the D-League, but he's close.

It's frustrating when I try to take my eye test and compare it to what other people have. For example, no single player on that comparison link has the same height/weight/wingspan measurements on draftexpress. In fact, several of them are WAY off.

So, I reserve the right to change my opinion after combine results.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Also, this is why teams scout and pretty much every report comes back that Whiteside is the real deal.

@f5alcon
I don't think anyone is writing off Serge. He is just 20yo after all. But the point is while he could develop into an offensive beast, it's not something we should be counting on because frankly the odds are against it.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
It's something to keep in mind. If Whiteside slips to the mid-first, the conference he plays in will be a huge factor. I'd still take him over Alabi.

@justin
serge is better then gortat in tRb% and blk% this year, and better the amundson was for his first 3 season, so i wouldnt quite write of serge yet.

@justin

Well, now that I say that, the Colonial conference that Sanders plays in is probably on the same level or just under the Conference USA.

How much should we question the production of players like Sanders and Whiteside due to the competition level of their respective conferences?

* on edit disregard the first sentence. not sure why I even typed that.

Sorry, that last post was meant to reply to justin.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

I haven't seen Whiteside play either, but the conference he plays in causes me concern. Every prospect in that list, other than Whiteside, plays in a legit conference with legit D1 talent.

I think we should stop the discussion at Monroe. Udoh is a similar option but I prefer Monroe's size. Both are exceptionally skilled offensively. Neither are dominant rebounders but can get the job done well. Udoh has the edge in terms of shot blocking and I would give Monroe the edge in passing.
Something important to consider is the way they act off the court. I don't know much about the character of either, but Udoh is a local kid (out of Edmond) which always helps and Monroe has the G-town connection with Green. Green goes back to school during the summer so I have to think they at least are acquaintances.

@Mark!

Right. I tried to be careful by saying that he has no excuse, since the other prospects (other than Udoh) get it done. But when his mind is set on rebounding on the offensive glass, he does as well as the other prospects. So that is at least something to consider.

Other nice things that he brings to the table (via that comparison link) is the best True Shooting Pct (which includes FT%, FG%, eFG%), comparable scoring per 40, and the lowest foul rate.

I'm not saying he's the second coming of Hakeem. I'm saying he's a great prospect for selection just past the lottery who is currently providing similar or better production on the court as other top prospects projected much higher than him.

i.e. going for blocks shouldn't affect your defensive rebounding position and ability.

@J.G.

I was referring to Jax's chart.

justin :Whiteside gets more blocks than Alabi and look at his #’s..

You read my disclaimer, right?

Whiteside gets more blocks than Alabi and look at his #'s..

Monroe might be affected on the offensive boards because he plays more on the perimeter..

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

I don't think you can disregard below average defensive rebounding, even if the player is possibly going for blocks instead. I would say this is especially true for a developing player like Alabi.

Rebounding ability starts with body type and whether or not you have the build to be a dominant rebounder. But a lot of it is instinct/intuition/strategy/understanding and he's not currently building that if his coach is asking him to be aggressive going for blocks instead of figuring out how to grab defensive boards.

It might help FSU, but I dunno how much it'll help us.

I'd like to award Mark! with today's Kev-ian, glass half-full post of the day!

Especially since it had me nodding and chuckling.

@Mark!
I vote you start a Thunder youth training camp. Send secret messages to presti detailing all the fundamentals you taught to little 8 year olds, and which ones are best. You can beat the system by creating your own. ;-)

justin :The problem is that Serge Ibaka clones many of these guy’s abilities and would make them surperfluous, so maybe there is value in a stash pick.

Exactly.

Let's not forget that we need to look more at % than we look at totals. Nit that the minutes played is too dissimilar among the Center prospects in this draft, but it's still something to look at.

As far as rebounding goes, Alabi is out of position for the defensive rebound too often because he is trying to block shots. Now to be fair, the other Center prospects can block shots and get defensive rebounds, so I'm not using this as an excuse. But take a look at the rebounding % and you see a noticeable trend.

NAME__________OFF%_____DEF%
-----------------------------
Alabi_________12.8_____16.3
Aldrich_______13.9_____25.5
Sanders_______12.2_____24.1
Monroe________08.8_____24.7
Whiteside_____13.1_____23.1
Udoh__________14.9_____17.3

Alabi and Udoh are hurting their defensive rebound position going for blocks. But their offensive rebound % shows that they as good at rebounding outright as the other prospects. Somehow, Monroe is off in never never land when it comes to offensive rebounding, but that must be an anomaly, since his defensive numbers look good.

If you want to take a look at the comparison yourself, try this link: http://bit.ly/9vOuY1

Hakeem ruined the NBA draft, scouting, etc. for a whole generation. Moreso than Kevin Garnett ruined it for the high school influx..

@Clark Matthews

Those are my two main concerns too.

As far predictive stats go, college rebounding correlates to NBA rebounding more so than any other college to pro comparative stat. Off the top of my head, I seem to recall there's something like a ~70% correlation.

I'm also not sold on late starters and the "amazing growth potential" based on observing rapid development. Of course they're rapidly developing! They weren't even bouncing balls with their hands a few years ago.

Bill Simmons has a whole spiel about recreating the Olajuwon lightning-in-a-bottle in TBOB. He was a once in a lifetime talent coming from once in a lifetime situation. It may not ever be replicated again.

I want someone who's been playing with a basketball since they could crawl. You know how people who learned a second language or learned to play an instrument as a child can inexplicably pick it up as second nature when needed as an adult, even in spite of not doing those things for years? That's what I want in a basketball player. Second nature foundamentals.

Unfortunately, we don't coach basketball fundamentals to children in this country. And Euros don't play defense. What a mess.

@justin
Thank you for being so technical on how I should phrase "I see developing into" instead of saying "absolute peak".
I don't see any reason why if he continues to work and gain experience, he won't develop into Ben Wallace with a jumper.

The problem is that Serge Ibaka clones many of these guy's abilities and would make them surperfluous, so maybe there is value in a stash pick.

@J.G.

Larry Sanders is a spitting image of Theo Ratliff, in my opinion. Long, lanky, great timing, explosive athlete who can also score some in the paint. Sanders' reach must be close to Kevin Durant's if not a bit longer, and he's much more athletic.

I agree if we draft a big, the more offense the better, but aside from Monroe there really won't be any offense around when we pick. At that point, barring a trade, I'd look at BPA and if we're disqualifying smalls, then I'd take Sanders over Alabi..

@Blake

Louis Amundson, Marcin Gortat, Greg Oden, and Kendrick Perkins all have similar TRB% and BLK% as Ibaka (some higher in both). How many DPOY trophies will Amundson win in his career?

NBA progression is not linear. Maybe you could claim that Ben Wallace with a jump shot is Serge's absolute peak, but the odds of him reaching that state are probably less than one percent considering the range of players that exhibit Serge's production.

Serge is a nice find and has exceeded expectations, but ease off a bit on the comparisons.. Ben Wallace / Shawn Kemp are once in a generation talents, Serge isn't putting up the type of production that would indicate he's anywhere near those guys (and in fact, is more in line with other rotation bigs such as Amundson).

Unfortunately, rebounding is probably the statistic that translates best to the NBA. If Alabi struggles there, it's very likely he will struggle with that in the league.

Alabi also scares me because, as you mention, he has only played for six years. You can spin it as, "he's this good and he's still learning the game," but this franchise has been burned by projects more than they have Tyson Chandler's foot. They had the good sense to void the Chandler trade, but the reason they made the deal in the first place is that Robert Swift, Johan Petro, and Mouhamed Saer Sene never did squat.

@J.G.

They'd probably select Alabi for the reasons Jax stated, stow him away somewhere and let him stew..

We lucked out with Serge, most of those stashed picks don't reap rewards..

justin :Ben Wallace is arguably the best defensive player of his generation, one of only two players to ever make an all star game while never scoring more than 10 points a game in his career (Mark Eaton made one ASG, Big Ben made four).
Comparing Serge to Shawn Kemp was silly but kind of endearing. Comparing him to Ben Wallace is nuts.

Serge is 20 years old, Ben Wallace started playing in the NBA until he was 22, didn't start until his 4th year and didn't average more than 25 minutes per game until his 5th year.
Serge's stats right now in his rookie season compare favorably to Ben's 2nd yr:
Ben Wallace
YR TM G GS MIN FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% STL BLK TO PF OFF DEF TOT AST PTS
97-98 WAS 67 16 16.8 1.3-2.4 .518 0.0-0.0 .000 0.5-1.5 .357 0.90 1.10 0.4 1.7 1.7 3.2 4.9 0.3 3.1
Serge Ibaka
09-10 OKC 42 0 16.4 2.3-4.4 .514 0.0-0.0 1.000 0.6-1.0 .558 0.30 1.00 1.0 2.3 1.8 3.1 4.9 0.1 5.1
He's a better shooter now than Ben ever was.

J.G. :@Blake Isn’t wishful thinking what the Draft is all about?!

So is the free agent market.

@justin
But can Sanders score offensively (and I'll be generous in saying that Sanders is a low-post scorer) and defend the paint like he does in college at the next level since he's all of 6'10 and 220lbs now? Will his game be the same if he tries to pack on 10-20 lbs to survive the rigors of an NBA season in the post? And how exactly would Sanders be an improvement in low post offense for the Thunder vs a player who has shown a strong 12 foot jumpshot?

I think these are the things NBA executives look out.

This is the article I was waiting for.

I like Alabi as a pick just past the lottery. I was stoked when the ESPN Draft Machine has us taking him with our pick.

I like Alabi as a project about 100 times more than I like Mullens as a project. His production in a solid college conference is good. He has all the physical attributes of Hasheem Thabeet, but unlike Thabeet, he looks interested and competitive and passionate.

If only you could just stash him in Europe for a season or two, let a good coaching staff refine his game, you'd be reaping the rewards later.

Just to say, there are no bonus points for being right about the next day's prospect since there seems to be a nice little game developing (though I can say right now, someone is correct about Prospect #3 already)...except for cool points, which you can award yourself if you end up being right.

But please remember that this is what I think the Thunder would do/pick given their current makeup and situation, more than who I would want if I was building a team or who I think are the better players.

How often do players such as Alabi succeed in the NBA? He's not an explosive athlete even if he moves well for his size, the only thing he's top25 in the nation in is blocks. I'd rather take a shot at Sanders who can block shots and has also been scoring, is rebounding better than Alabi, and is a much more explosive athlete.

Justin is right Larry Sander is a perfect fit for the Thunder. I don't know how this is not talked about more on these comments.

Number three should be Larry Sanders. I might even put Sanders in front of Alabi.

@Blake
Isn't wishful thinking what the Draft is all about?!

Ben Wallace is arguably the best defensive player of his generation, one of only two players to ever make an all star game while never scoring more than 10 points a game in his career (Mark Eaton made one ASG, Big Ben made four).

Comparing Serge to Shawn Kemp was silly but kind of endearing. Comparing him to Ben Wallace is nuts.

Draft Prospectus III - James Anderson

Kind of wishful thinking that we could draft a big man that could provide a post-up game, was a great rebounder and shot blocker. Those guys are few and far between in the NBA, much less through the middle to late part of the first round of the draft. I think our best bet at a post-up game will be KD (like Jordan & Kobe in thier later years and what would make KD and Lebron unstoppable). Our shot blocker/rebounder is already on the roster and quickly developing. I see Surge developing into Ben Wallace w/ a 12-15 foot jumper. Where we'll be drafting it would be worth getting a developmental big man (like Alabi, Lawal, Udoh or Whiteside) or a shooter like James Anderson or Xavier Henry (who both happen to be local guys).