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Thunder 84 – Grizzlies 86 recap

January 22nd, 2010

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It’s funny how all of the recent team success has just completely spoiled me as a Thunder fan. Last week we had a big win against Atlanta on the road and before that two seriously impressive one point losses against Dallas and San Antonio.  Then a not that impressive, yet still a win matchup with Minny on the road. Tonight however the Thunder seemed like Monster truck stuck in the mud.  Last year we would have taken some moral victory from a win over a team that was really hot and a few games over .500. Not now; moral victories are for last year.

The Thunder just never really felt to me like they “had” this game. There were 11 lead changes and a gazillion ties, yet I couldn’t ever get comfortable with the feeling that we were going to win.  Who knows what that is all about, I just was hoping for more. I feel like our team is the better team. I can sort of quantify that with our efficiency differential but all that is just rhetoric since we just lost. I’m just hoping we don’t look back on this game when we are fighting for playoff seeding and go “man, if we could’ve just won that one back in January”.  Ok, I know that’s probably not going to happen since we still get to play them a few more times, but still…you  know what I mean.

  • I think we are starting to see a change in the coaching methodology from Coach Brooks. Earlier in the season Brooks went with his starters and then his bench guys according to some sort of a prearranged rotation that really didn’t change much from game to game. You knew Westbrook, Durant and Green would get like 35+ minutes every night. Krstic would get his start and his minutes, Thabo the same, and Collison and Harden and Ibaka would get theirs. But lately I’ve noticed that Brooks is starting to tweak his rotations on more of a gut feel or some internal analysis of winning matchups. For example, tonight Eric Maynor had a very complete and dominant game off the bench during his 23 minutes. Russell only played 25  and was the bad Russell. How many times this year has Russell played 25 minutes or less prior to tonight? Only twice.  It was looking to me like Maynor was having a better matchup against Tinsley and Conley ( as evidenced by his team leading +8 on +/-). Russell was -10.  Maynor’s 23 minutes ties his high with the Thunder.
  • To expand on the point above, remember when Green was sucking pond water in late December and earlier this month? In a 6 game stretch he played three games with 16 minutes, 27 minutes and 14 minutes with no major foul trouble; all wins. Since then he has been back up in the realm of 35+ mpg. Hmmm.  Maybe I’m making a mountain out of a molehill but it just “feels” like something’s going on here. Russell, without foul trouble or injury had the bit in his mouth and Brooks was pulling back on the reins tonight.
  • The Thunder were getting hammered on the boards early. They were -6 after the first quarter, -4 at the half, -2 after three quarters and the Thunder came out on top 46-42.  We didn’t have anybody really take charge of the boards, it was rebounding by committee.
  • Hasheem Thabeet is a very intriguing player; those long arms go all the way to the rafters. He had 9 boards and 4 blocks in 23 minutes.
  • Mike Conley is shooting 42% from three. Believe it.
  • I was really getting tired of watching the Griz back tapping every rebound to themselves in the first half.
  • I thought we might actually see some Etan Thomas tonight but it was Mullens instead. Mully really didn’t do much of anything.
  • How about Sefolosha’s back to back fast break dimes in the second quarter for dunks by Durant and Green?
  • Hey John Hollinger, Sefolosha held OJ Mayo to 1-12 shooting. DPOY!
  • Eric Maynor often has the look of a guy who is just about to turn the ball over a lot of the time. He gets down there in the paint and runs all around and over screens this way and that, then makes a genius pass.  Eight points, 6 assists and 4 boards in 23 minutes, and two beautiful floaters.
  • That play with 20 seconds left really sucked. Tied at 84-84 and Conley drives and gets the ball partially blocked. It goes high in the air and Durant comes down with it. Gasol just rips it out of his hands and knocks him down. No foul and the shot clock goes off because Durant had “possession” of the ball….WTF?
  • Then, with the Griz not having made a field goal in over 4 minutes Rudy Gay nails a long two  in Durant’s face to finish the thing….
  • Jeff Green was 6/8 shooting from <10 feet. He was 1/10 beyond that. What kind of shots do you think he should focus on?
  • Harden was the player of the game for all players not named Durant. He had a complete line of 7 boards, 5 assists and 2 steals plus his 13 points. According to Hoopdata, factoring in credit for his assists he had 14.3 points contributed in just 9.4 possessions used (obviously a calculation).

It should be easier tomorrow with Cleveland right? Right?

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There is a good chance Thomas was brought in almost entirely to be a trade chip. If he is not traded the pickup was largely a waste. Unless he helped inspire more physical defense in practice.

His individual stats look ok but the Adjusted +/- is bad.
If they weren't playing as well as they are you might get used. But I doubt it changes now unless it is for a brief showcase. Not too long though to avoid the possibility of injury. But it really depends if everyone else just sees him as an expiring or if anyone really wants to use him or at least more than somebody else, all things considered.

But Brooks doesn't want to use Thomas. It would be really nice if he clarified why, I don't think it was because of subpar play, he was just getting in the way of the development of the younger players, which is funny when collison is the only non-rookie coming off the bench. For the fan's sake I wish we played Thomas, but I can see why when looking long term.

Dan2

More than a few of us have been saying this since the offseason. To me, the best balance is when you pair the finesse guys with the power guys. Green and Krstic are both finesse offensive and defensive players. Collison, Etan Thomas are power guys. Serge seems to be more of a power guy. So to get the best balance of scoring inside and out, stout defense and help, rebounding and shot blocking, it's best to pair one finesse guy and one power guy. So instead of Krstic/Green, go Krstic/Collison, and Green/Collison and Ibaka/Krstic.....

Green-Durant is now positive and Green's best pair...
but this ends up mostly as a compliment to Durant.
Durant is more positive with 6 of the guys who play modest or bigger minutes- all except Thabo, who he might still be negative with.

Go to 82games.com and look at the different lineups that Green is in, out of his top 10 in terms of minutes, only 2 are + in +/-, and where the off is better than def, when collison subs for Kristic, and when we go small with green playing center. I think that suggests that Kristic and Green should NOT play together, they don't complement each other at all.

...somebody 'or somebody new" somebody might be better...

I don't think Green goes anywhere til Durant is signed, whenever that is- this summer by extension or next summer or the one after that (if it goes that long, he is more likely gone).

He is Durant insurance among other things.

So if you have Green and he continues to play like he is this year then the goal when he is in the game is just try to keep it close. Put him with a better rebounder whenever possible or maybe without a lane clogger to encourage his inside driving. I am not sure who the best partner is right now but somebody might be better.

For all the times I've said Durant-Green was way negative- and they were- I now feel it only fair to note that right now it is Green's best pair, though modestly.

thanks - I must have been half asleep - I will adjust it . . . thanks . . .

kev, you gave Russell Westbrook credit for 2 contest shots on OJ Mayo in thed 3rd Q startin with 5 minutes, which should have been Thabo instead

Now then... moving away from the personal and back to the actual subject... all I'm saying is that I don't think it pays to get this down on Green just yet.

The bottom line is that he is a BIG part of this quite surprising season... I don't think we mess with success quite yet. Let's see how the season unfolds and try not to throw the baby out with the bath water.... have some patience my friend.

LOL... deliberately trolling? That's pretty funny. It's not like you were the first or only person to have ever talked about "t-rex" arms. I don't want to be rude because I value your comments and the friendly nature of this forum, but come on man, the world does not revolve around some guy named Justin on a basketball forum.

Seems to me that his attitude has changed a LOT since he first got here. Hopefully it's just a phase... we'll see.

LOL I think this Bryan guy is delibrately trolling me or something.

Jeff Green is not 'no smaller than a lot of 4's', he's smaller than almost all of them. Standing reach! Look it up! I said this last year when they put him at PF that it wouldn't work because he's got T-Rex arms, and lo and behold he can't rebound or play consistent defense against starting PF's. This is not a basketball secret it's common sense, and everyone knew this about Green when he was drafted (to play SF).

As for his shot coming back, Jeff Green had had exactly 4 months (FOUR) out of his whole career where he made more than 1 out of 3 of his three point attempts. His numbers last year from deep were greatly helped by a torrid couple of months where he shot 40%+. Considering most of his other months shooting from long range are in the low 30's / upper 20's, which scenario seems more realistic? That Jeff Green is a below average shooter who gets a hot hand once in awhile, or Jeff Green is a terrific shooter that is still finding the range after 2.5 years in the league? Maybe he'll be a low 30's shooter from three point range, and that's fine, but this fantasy about Jeff Green becoming a consistent three point threat is too much wishful thinking for me from what I've seen.

Look at Kevin Durant. Last year he didn't have one month below 36% from 3pt range, he was very consistent. So when he comes in shooting cold this year, then year, he'll probably turn it around some, and he has as he's been ultra hot from long range. Jeff Green's gone half a season shooting poorly..

thanks . . .

I sensed something amiss in his pre-draft interviews - I couldnt put my finger on it - thanks for the insight . . .

usually, guys with that kind of attitude are not good passers - he was one of the most unselfish players in the NCAA -

I know everyone is human, but you'd like to think he was a good person . . .

thanks again . . .

To some extent you expect that from young guys that have so much going for them... but it was just a D-Move.

Kev, just saw him and some of the boys out at Cafe Nova a few nights ago and, maybe it was the liquor, but he was just very rude and stuck up, while the others were friendly.

A buddy of mine had been talking to the guys for a minute, while I was close by, and he tried to introduce him to a female friend that had been dying to meet him. She walked up, he looked her up and down, rolled his eyes, LAUGHED, and turned the other way.

She was pretty hurt by it.

yeah I like Harden as a player... I just wish he would stop holding the ball when he drives the lane. He has got to be the most-blocked player on the roster... any stats on this?

hey Bryan, I trust what you are saying, but would you elaborate on the personal experiene about Harden??

Justin... I just think that you and some of the other Green haters are just unwilling to cut a guy some slack. It may very well turn out that, for the sake of the franchise AND Green himself, that he leave the team to play SF somewhere at some point.

But to give up on him now, after barely more than a year play the 4, seems a bit unforgiving. Green has the highest vertical of every player on the team (minu Ibaka), he is no smaller than a lot of 4's in the league, he gets to the cup much better than he used to, and his shot WILL come back (they always do).

We saw this same sort of thing with everyone baggin on Westbrook. Give the kid a minute.

James Harden's been our second best scorer this month. He's playing well; if he can stop making the boneheaded mistakes he'd be great.

I get that sense sometimes too, Diane. Plus, I can tell you from personal experience that he is not a very nice person. Somebody needs to bring him back down to earth.

I just don't think The Thunder played good last night at all. I'm not a statistic person but they just looked kind of lazy, not sharp.

Okay, I'm saying it and getting it off my chest. I don't like James Harden. I certainly like his 3 pointers but I think he holds on to the ball too long, and too much. He acts like he is doing The Thunder a favor. And that's it.

I'm with you Greg. I think that some of the things Brooks has asked him to do have been difficult for him to adjust to. But he brings effort and energy every night and that shot ability is still there.

It will come back. At some point in the near future he will quiet his critics, just as Russell did.

I know you're not the only one, and it really puzzles me. He's one of the least efficient offensive players at his position in the league, yet gets some of the most minutes. It takes some strenuous mental acrobatics to consider 15 points on 18 shots a good game offensively.. that's a lot of wasted possessions.

Well Green was our second leading scorer, and if Westbrook isn't going to take advantage of Mike Conley guarding him, then I like seeing Green being more assertive. His shot isn't real consistent right now, but like somebody pointed out earlier, he was deadly from inside 10 feet and that's because he's the best finisher on our team. His outside shot was great last season, so he has the capability. I just like how he's been playing overall the last week, and I'm not the only one.

The Grizzles are about to lose Rudy Gay after this season, and after all we're talking about the Grizzlies. A franchise that has a notorious reputation for being poorly ran (giving up Pau Gasol?).

The Thunder's future is significantly brighter in my opinion ,in large part due to management and our STAR. And granted the first 2 games of the series with Memphis were in Memphis. So we split those, and then we'll go 3-1 for the season.

@Greg

Solid night offensively?? Jeff Green had 15 points on 18 shot attempts, zero free throw attempts. That is not a solid night offensively by anyone's standards.

Sammy,
I know that Thabeet looks intriguing, but don't forget that the Thunder tend to make opposing bigs look better than they are.

And no way am I giving up Maynor for Thabeet. All Memphis needs is a really good PG off the bench and they will be deadly.... and I for one have ZERO interest in giving them that piece for a guy that is only marginally better than Ibaka (if at all). I already hate the idea of playing them 4 times a year from now to eternity, if they pick up a solid back up PG before we get a nice offensive AND defensive post player, we will be struggling to keep from getting swept every year.

All that's been said about Green is true. But he also outrebounded zach randolph (no one would have predicted that one) and had 3 blocks, and a solid night offensively. You could tell he brought a little more energy last, especially on the boards, and he's been doing it all week. Props to Jeff and my hopes are his slump-bust is permanent.

As mentioned, the calls last night were more than frustrating. I won't go over them all, but it happens every time they are on the road and seem to be gaining momentum. That's all I'm going to say on that subject.

Harden and Maynor were huge last nigh offensively. That teardrop is beautiful.

Sure hindsight is 20/20 but if your gonna go for a three, why not have harden in as well on the last shot? It looked like a busted play that Durant just found some open space.
Play before why does durant not get right on him force him to pass or drive, if he passes I like our chances of deflection, if he drives I think we only blocked him like 3 times in a row.

Man if westbrook could develop the teardrop it would make him so deadly on drives.

and Collison was gettin no love from the refs last night...hopefully he had a lady friend to make him forget his frustrations...he was pissed.

Just be glad we got to Maynor before Memphis. Memphis is a backup point guard from being real scary.

Maynor's no spin floater is absolute money. I don't care we lost the game- the backup point guard has a better feel for the game with all of our pieces. He is a master of spacing and rarely picks up his dribble. Westbrook becoming expendible. Trade value will never be higher.

First 4 games of the season the current starting lineup got at least some run in the 4th quarter. I don't want to take the time to check them all but last 5 games they only got run in one of them for just 4 minutes.

What's special about the current starting lineup? Mainly that Presti handpicked them for that.

But when the game is in the final turn lately Brooks Brooks has gone elsewhere. I think that is worth noting.

Thunder's overall record is ahead of almost anyone's expectations but they are winning by almost 6 1/2 against the East and losing by more than 3 points per game against the West. Still plenty of room for improvement against the West. And changing the starting lineup or just changing out of it quicker and using it less would appear to help.

If they don't want to change the starting lineup I'd just say that Collison comes in for the less effective so far of Green or Krstic after about 5 minutes unless the starters are tied or in the lead. If Durant is cold or the offense as a whole is not clicking I'd bring in Harden or Maynor a few minutes earlier than usual.

For second in a row, Thunder's loss coincides with Suns loss, it makes me a bit happier. Now Suns is 8th on the standing.

Some times they do well, much different than the rest of time, but so far all I can say is that usually happens against the East.

If you ran the tape of that unit for all its minutes I'd think you could notice some recurring stuff to fix- and if you are the opponent some stuff to exploit. So far the opponents and their tape unit or execution or luck are winning that battle more often.

@kev
I was going to write a rebuttal to your critique of Jeff green, but I realized you're right. I think jeff green did a great job tonight for Jeff green. He was great battling all night to deny the entry pass and prevent good position, but it seemed like a planned strategy because everyone knew that if zbo got the ball on the block vs green zbo was going to score (which he did). I know it's not news but we need a dominant low post presence. When Green is face guarding zbo and your starting center only collects two boards, something is wrong. I'm very intrigued by thabeet and if he can be had for our two picks or for maynor I do that trade.

Starting lineup had another -12 in 15 minutes.

I have to assume they strongly believe in that lineup (despite the numbers) and aren't going to be deterred most nights from using it the way they always do.

I'd think you should be able to tell when it is not working more than normal and shift to even modestly lower minutes for it after the first quarter... but they don't do that.

Kev, send me your spreadsheet for this game. I only caught the fourth quarter. eric4mayor6@yahoo.com

I'm torn on Harden starting. I don't think we see any noticeable change in Harden's production if he becomes a starter. If we do see a change, it'll likely be negative. He'll be playing against better opponents, and his scoring priority takes a dip.

I think we could do some pretty nice things with him on offense in the starting lineup. I think Westbrook moves well without the ball and shoots pretty well coming off screens in the 15-18ft range. With Harden in to help distribute, that frees up Westbrook to do some work off the ball for a change.

Honestly, I don't think Brooks has the offensive chops to make it happen that way tho. I dunno if it's lack of experience, lack of control or lack of imagination, but the offense is missing this season. With Harden in the starting lineup, we'd likely just see him occasionally get the ball and be expected to create his own shot, just like we commonly see with Green and Durant.

Besides that, the clear candidate to be a starter is Collison over Krstic, but that move probably won't ever be made. Dunno why he'd move Harden over Thabo before swapping out Krstic who seems like a clear candidate for offense off the bench and not a starter.

Gotta make some kind of change to the starting lineup IMO..

I meant after tomorrow night's game . . .

we have three days off between games - If I have the urge, I might pore over all the spreadsheets and see how many of his contests were agaisnt starters, and how many were agaisnt bench players . . .

excellent question Justin . . .

even though his defensive numbers have been very good lately, keep in mind that he's doing most of it against the bench. His defensive numbers probably wouldn't hold up if he started the game. I think he's a good defender, but Thabo is better primarily because of his height and length advantage.

Personally for that reason I'd keep it as it is - play Thabo to start and adjust Harden's minutes form game to game base don the situation . . .

not only that, but we have no decent bench scorer if Harden starts - until we acquire a bench scorer, I wouldn't even contemplate starting Harden . . .

Kev, what do you think of James Harden possibly starting? Thabo's much better at defense but it seems like Harden's scores are getting more consistent as the season goes and he's starting to hit his ouside shots a lot more.

Defensive Breakdown

The score came up (+6) which is well below average. I personally don’t think it was that bad, but we didn’t have a single interior player with a good defensive score. Most notably, Green was used down low. We had a stretch at the end of the game where we came up with consecutive stops to give our offense a chance to tie the game, but we were fortunate that the Grizzlies went away from the low post.

Defensive MVP – James Harden (+8)

**** Note – I track “steals” differently. I give the guy that initially deflected the ball the credit – while I believe that the NBA gives the guy that ultimately gains possession the steal. My reasoning is that the second guy doesn’t have the opportunity to do anything if the first guy doesn’t alter the intended direction of the ball. So in other words, the steals count in this column will vary from the official total listed in NBA box scores. *****

Some guys gamble to get their steals; meaning that they give away proper defending position to get their thefts. Harden gets his steals within the framework of the defense. Today I had him for four steals. Better – he had NO mistakes. He has great hand eye coordination that allows him to use his quick hands to deflect balls.

Let’s go to the second quarter for an example. James Harden is on the weakside guarding Sam Young. Harden is just outside the lane; this is the standard position for a deep weakside defender. Center Marc Gasol gets the ball in the lane and is surrounded by a host of Thunder players. Gasol makes a critical mistake and puts the ball on the floor. Harden executes a clean strip and Oklahoma City is off to the races.

Russell Westbrook (+6)

Westbrook has better defensive days against non-penetrating point guards. I don’t know why he only played twenty five minutes; maybe it was due to his offense. His defense was decent; I had him down for only one “dumb switch” – that was a switch to Rudy Gay late in the first quarter. He continues to excel at closing out on shooters. He had five contests and a deflection. He also had a steal in the first quarter.

Thabo Sefolosha (+3)

Thabo did a decent job for the time that he was in there (20 minutes). Obviously, that reduced time accounts for his lower defensive score. Even in those twenty minutes, I only have three notations for Thabo: a stop, a contest outside, and a loose ball gained.

Eric Maynor (+1)

Kevin Durant (+1)

Durant (like most Thunder players) is excellent in rotation and contesting shots. Tonight’s game was no exception. But today his on ball defense was subpar. He struggled mightily against Rudy Gay. These were his mistakes on Gay:

• GUP (gave up penetration) to Gay – ball was rotated to Mike Conley for three (1st Q – 8:30)
• Watched Rudy Gay shoot without contesting (this is RARE for the 2009-2010 version of KD). Gay converts from about fifteen feet. (1st Q – 5:55)
• Posted by Rudy Gay – Gay hits a short jumper (3rd Q – 10:50)
• GUP to Gay – Gay scores on a drive and is fouled by KD (3rd Q – 6:00)
• Shooting foul on Gay (4th Q – 9:50)

I’m not even a Gay fan – but he looked like an All-Start tonight. By the way, I didn’t penalize KD for his defense on that game winning shot. KD was there with his arms outstretched to the ball; that was just a primetime shot.

Nenad Krstic (zero)

Nick Collison (-2)

Serge Ibaka (-3)

Byron Mullens (-3)

Mullens played five minutes – that was long enough to give up a score to Marc Gasol in the post, and a to commit a foul on the Grizzlies center a few moments later. I have yet to see anything from Mullens that would lead me to believe that he will be a future starter at center.

Jeff Green (-5)

If Jeff Green played defense for us at small forward, he would be a very good – maybe even an EXCLLENT defender. On defense inside, he was abused by Zach Randolph down low. I will give you two glaring examples.

Late in the third quarter, Memphis reserve guard Jamal Tinsley is isolated out top. He’s draining the clock for the last shot. Green is low with Randolph – and Green is positioned slightly above Zach (probably to stop any penetration). Tinsley advances the ball in the lane away from Green’s side – so he’s not in a position to help. Meanwhile, Randolph makes a quick move to get rebounding position against Green. Green was frozen for a second while he was watching the ball. Once Randolph got Green on his hip, it was all she wrote – you aren’t moving that widebody out of position. What’s worse is that Tinsley threaded the ball to Randolph instead of shooting. Help defender Nick Collison was forced to come over and foul to stop the easy two.

In the fourth quarter, Randolph showed his superior strength. Conley was dribbling the ball out right – Green and Randolph were on the box on the left side – seemingly out of the play. Conley reverses his dribble and quickly comes left. Randolph uses his behind to move Green out of the way. Green offered no resistance – he doesn’t have the bulk to do that against a guy like Randolph. Zach pivoted away form Green and scored easily.

We definitely got screwed by the refs down the stretch, but we also benefited from bad calls the other night, so I guess everything evens out.