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And I say SPM leaves a fair amount undone, but perhaps it "globs on" coverage of other parts of the game not covered explicitly, roughly, to the stats actually used in SPM. Making a fairly good fit at league level. But this would not be that accurate at the player level.

(Clarification: Durant +18 and Collison +7 were 1 year Adjusted +/-'s.)

1 year Adjusted is not worth that much.

SPM is probably pretty good for what it does. But it leaves a fair amount undone.

If SPM is more real and Durant is pulling a +6 on SPM, does that make 12 points of his current +18 a mirage or just most of it?

Basically all of Nicks +7 is outside of what SPM captures. Is that a mirage or real?

Is Adjusted doing a better job on Nick than Durant right now? I'd tend to think so but can't say for sure.

1 year Adjusted has Ibaka at about -5 too. I guess it is good news that his shot defense isn't pulling things down further but it isn't picking things up either.

P.S. Thanks for the SPM data.

With part of defense being the 4.3 rebound advantage per 48 minutes the average PF has on him.

So Green's poor Adjusted is basically all coming from beyond the boxscore- individual defense, team defense, impact on team offense... and error. In some combination.

@Bryan
Feel free to get sick to your stomach about Blair, but not Casspi. Sacto picked him two picks ahead of us. We did not pass on him.

Omar :Rookies could have used Blake

I think the rooks would have had a good shot with Blake on the court... Effen Clippers curse!!!!!

@DizzyDai
But there really aren't any other legit big men... Ibaka might be next in line, but these games aren't about shot-blocking, they are about highlight dunks and big shots, not Ibaka's forte. I don't think the game should be competitive no matter who is on the rookie team. Rose, Mayo, Gallinari, Love, and Lopez could be a playoff team by themselves. Outside of Evans and Blair, I'm not sure any of the other rookies would even be starters on a playoff team. Last year's draft was very talented, even if Griffin were playing the rooks would have been blown out.

In fact, this year's rookie class may be in danger of losing next year too. Wall can counter Evans, and next years rooks will have Turner, Favors, Davis, and now Griffin.

I understand why, but I think the game will be more competitive with more legit big men on the rookie team.

Rookies could have used Blake

(SPM is relative to league average)

Here are the player's rankings, by points above average contributed so far this year (for OKC alone):
Kevin Durant 4
Russell Westbrook 44
James Harden 56
Jeff Green 75
Thabo Sefolosha 91
Nick Collison 147
Nenad Krstic 191
Eric Maynor 240
D.J. White 287
Kevin Ollie 304
Kyle Weaver 310
Ryan Bowen 340
Serge Ibaka 344
Shaun Livingston 352
Byron Mullens 359
Mike Wilks 398
Etan Thomas 439

@Crow
OKC Statistical Plus/Minus so far this year:
Kevin Durant 5.93
Russell Westbrook 1.21
James Harden 3.61
Jeff Green -0.23
Thabo Sefolosha 0.00
Nick Collison 0.45
Nenad Krstic -1.89
Eric Maynor -0.15
D.J. White 4.88
Kevin Ollie -2.20
Kyle Weaver 11.97
Ryan Bowen 13.42
Serge Ibaka -4.69
Shaun Livingston -4.58
Byron Mullens -4.16
Mike Wilks -7.67
Etan Thomas -9.73

(The list is sorted by total value contributed, assuming a replacement-level player is at about -4.9 SPM)

@kev
Ha, I totally missed his name. That's three big men, plus Casspi can play some PF too. I'm not even sure I see your issue anymore Kev.

Jerebko is mainly playing SF but by the numbers, small sample is better at PF. Shoots inside. Doesn't pass.

Ibaka might make the sophs next season.

Jerebko is the kind of guy on the surface Presti probably would like. Though his Adjusted +/- is moderately negative right now. Too early to say where it will go.

You know, Jerebko actually played some point guard for Detroit for part of a game earlier this season.

! year Adjusted, at least the version available for this season which is not "regularized", is very noisy.

By 1 year Durant is 6th best in the league. By 2 year right now he is just neutral. Where he is between these extremes I don't know. Probably neither extreme but which pole he is closer to is harder to say.

By 1 year Green is in the bottom 25 of the league.
By basketballvalue's 2 year...
Green is in the bottom 25 of the league.

He is just not performing well in his present role and context. They could change that.

Jerebko should get in simply because of his awesome name.

Actually Harden leads the rooks on both statistical plus/minus and 1 year Adjusted +/-.

And now Lopez and Love are ahead of Wwstbrook on both too. Same with Gasol. Westbrook has slipped back to just neutral on 1 year Adjusted +/-. Still good on 2 year but for how long?

Jerebko was on the list above . . .

@DizzyDai
I would have loved to see Ibaka play, but to say he's been better than anyone on the rook roster for the duration of the year? That's quite a stretch. In all fairness, if the team required another guy who could play PF, I would have put Jerebko from Detroit, who has played a significant, starting role on that team for most of the year, and played it quite well.

@kev
Fair enough. I tend to have pet peeves about position related voting as well, but I don't much worry as long as they pick the best players, which I think they did here. Sure maybe one of two could have been swapped for someone else of equal value, but this lineup doesn't bother me.

It's not like Duncan being forced down our throats as a PF, or Amare as a C, or AI as worth anything. I'd rather see the best players, regardless of position, be rewarded for their play than someone make it in on a technicality of "well, we need a tall guy."

Keith :@kevIt was a PG heavy class. Should they have put someone less deserving...P>

Yes! And his name was Ibaka.

of course Keith, you are right - the actual game bears little resemblance to reality . . .

Keith I get your point - it's just one of my pet peeves . . .

they name a TEAM and then the actual team bears no concept to reality . . .

I'm just in a bad mood - sorry for the rant . . .

@kev
It was a PG heavy class. Should they have put someone less deserving (and remember these games are almost always guard-oriented) just to fill in an extra player at PF or C? It's a glorified pickup game that serves only to reward rookies and sophmores having good season, but not good enough to be all-stars.

@kev
Not to mention, who's going to guard Brook Lopez. :)

the problem is that it's a game not an end of the year list - when forty four percent of your team consists of point guards, there's an issue . . .

I know that two of them can play the two position but still, one of them should be staying home . . .

@kev
curry and evans can play off the ball, what's the big problem

@kev
Those are also the big names in the class

they picked FOUR point guards for the Rookies . . .

AWESOME work . . .

@DSMok1
Fair enough, and I didn't know it wasnt the adjusted.

Just saying in general though that I dont really think it's very meaningful.

This should be a demolition job by the sophs. The only spot they might have an advantage at is SG (Tyreke over Mayo). Of course, these kinds of games tend to be more guard oriented, as they will have the ball and are generally not as willing to pass to the frontcourt players. That's something of a disappointment as the soph frontcourt is ridiculously better than the rook frontcourt.

This rookie class is looking similar to Durant's class. They will lose the rookie game, and next year's class will look good enough to beat them. I almost think next year's rookie/sophmore game will be more exciting as it will be a closer game.

@555
Don't forget KD should also be in the H.O.R.S.E game as the defending champion!

I saw a tweet a couple days ago about him saying he was excited to shoot the promo for the H.O.R.S.E. game

Statistical, not Adjusted plus/minus. Statistical is based purely on box-score stats, not the (really noisy) on/off court data.

So withhold judgment on these ratings until you research them, please! :)

@DSMok1
I didnt realize Harden has such a good plus/minus. Not that I think plus/minus is accurate or meaningful anyways, because I dont, but still intersting.

Let's see: here are the rookies' and sophs' statistical plus/minus ratings (per 100 possessions):

Rookies:
SAC Tyreke Evans 2.00
MIL Brandon Jennings 1.34
OKC James Harden 3.61
GSW Stephen Curry 0.25
SAC Omri Casspi -1.18
CHI Taj Gibson -1.54
SAS DeJuan Blair -0.54
DET Jonas Jerebko -2.21
MIN Jonny Flynn -3.45

Sophs:
MEM Marc Gasol 4.76
NJN Brook Lopez 2.16
OKC Russell Westbrook 1.21
MEM O.J. Mayo 0.15
NYK Danilo Gallinari 1.33
MIN Kevin Love 5.75
LAC Eric Gordon 0.21
MIA Michael Beasley -0.90
CHI Derrick Rose -2.09

The players are ranked by overall contributions (in points/poss/team poss played).

If all players on each of these teams play the same minutes, I would favor the sophomores by 10 points.

I actually thought they (Rookie team last year) were very good last year, and might have a chance to beat KD's Sophomore team.
It will be fun to watch Blair and Love beating each other up in the paint...

@Royce
Word

@Mark!
Maybe I just should have said: "The Sophs are stacked."

Mark! :Stacked in the backcourt? Are you kidding? I would say that…
Casspi, Curry, Evans, Flynn, Harden, Jennings-vs-Gallinari, Gordon, Mayo, Rose, Westbrook
is a lot closer matchup than the frontcourt of…
Blair, Gibson, Jerebko-vs-Beasley, Gasol, Lopez, Love

This. I dont know how the rooks will handle Rose/Westbrook/Mayo though.

Seriously, that is a very good frontcourt that the sophs have

Stacked in the backcourt? Are you kidding? I would say that...

Casspi, Curry, Evans, Flynn, Harden, Jennings
-vs-
Gallinari, Gordon, Mayo, Rose, Westbrook

is a lot closer matchup than the frontcourt of...

Blair, Gibson, Jerebko
-vs-
Beasley, Gasol, Lopez, Love

Ibaka should have been in this game!!! Yet, I'm pleased with the teams.

Sounds like a ton of fun to watch... can't wait.

Oh, and every time I see the names Blair and Caspri, I get sick to my stomach cuz we passed.... ugh

KD - All Stars Game (I strongly believe he will be there)
RW - Rookie/Sophomore Challenge (Sophomore)
JH - Rookie/Sophomore Challenge (Rookie)

Wow... That's HUGHE...
The one way I can see the Rookie will beat the Sophomore is, if Jennings/Curry/Evans go crazy and shoot a crazy game like KD did last year. However, highly doubt that will happen though.

Sophs always have an advantage it seems. I like the rook team, but sophs have the advantage in the paint. The huge thing known as Blain will need to have a game similar to the way he played against the thunder for the rooks to have a chance.

But if the rooks had decided to take Ibaka...GAME SET MATCH!!!!!