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Friday Bolts – 1.15.10

thunderbolt2There won’t be any Bolts Monday as I’ll be out of town. But I’ll have you covered everywhere else. HAVE NO FEAR.

There is a lot of talk about the Cavs reportedly tanking for LeBron, but Kelly Dwyer said this: “Everyone’s current darlings, the Oklahoma City Thunder, tanked last year, the year before, the year before that — and by not signing any money on free agents last summer, one could argue that they’re tanking this year, despite the team’s playoff potential.” I don’t really agree that not signing free agents equals tanking. Some might call that smart management.

Sebastian Pruiti has an EXCELLENT breakdown of Russell Westbrook’s game tying shot and the failed last possession against the Spurs: “These two plays are very interesting, because they are basically the same play, with Kevin Durant being denied the ball. In the second play though (the one from overtime), there is a chance for Durant to get the ball. Is it Durant’s fault or Westbrook’s fault?”

Oklahoma has that affect on people: “Me and my bros in houstouns talkin about females and settling down..A couple of us are ready for a real relationship. [from @KevinDurant35]

Kevin Arnovitz breaks down DeJuan Blair’s 20-20 against OKC:

Russell Westbrook is one of the Five on the Rise: “Last season, no player in the league turned the ball over more than Westbrook. His miscues were to be expected, though, as a rookie point guard not only learning the NBA game but, in many ways, learning the point guard position, too. Of late, Westbrook has shown improvement in not just managing his mistakes, but also getting the Thunder into position to climb in the Western Conference. After averaging a season-high 3.8 turnovers per game in November, Westbrook has drastically cut his turnover stats each month, getting that down to 2.5 turnovers per game in December. He’s at 2.3 turnovers per game this month. How has that influenced Oklahoma City’s on-court product? The Thunder were 7-8 in November, 9-6 in December and are 3-4 this month.”

John Schuhmann of NBA.com actually says the Thunder have actually underachieved and should expect 49 wins.

Darnell Mayberry thinking about DeJuan Blair: “But the draft, as we all know, is based on potential. Are we to assume Blair has more upside than Mullens? The Thunder might have made the right call in passing on Blair. OKC might have blown it. Only time will tell. But where will Blair be when Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Jeff Green are hitting their strides five years from now? How will those knees, with their missing ACLs, have held up? Will Blair still be the same outstanding dirty worker or just an ordinary 25-year-old with no lift?”

Prepare yourself to get smarter – Jon Nichols of HP writes about if steals are worth the gamble: “In conclusion, based on the evidence I’ve presented today, I would suggest that lineups (and, theoretically, players) that record more steals are often better on defense. To some, this may be obvious, but to others it may not be. We can never know for sure how important steals really are, but the stats think they matter.”

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@andrew

The correct answer is: we all do.

EMaynor3@EMaynor3
Who wins in a KY Jelly wrestling match, Kim Kardashian, or Beyonce?dnt care just wud love to watch lol

Nice Jax

@Jared M
Probably 4th guard. Evans and Jennings have the star thing kind of locked down. It's also hard to see him surpassing Curry, even as a starter, until Brooks actually utilizes him more in games.

@Jared M
if he starts he will get a huge boost from this year, plus he should shoot better, the offseason should help him a lot.

What place do you think Harden will rank next year at this time for the soph rankings?

Looking at the forwards. I am invious of memphis and the nets in one regard. They have two big men that are true big men that sure can play some ball.

@Dustin
They have it divided up by forwards and guards. They have him number #1 for the guards!

1. Russell Westbrook, Thunder
Westbrook has been a better all-around player this season and it's showing in his stats and in the Thunder's win column. Exactly a year ago, Oklahoma City had a total of six wins. Six. It currently has 21.

The quarterback for his team, Westbrook is as much a reason for the Thunder's success as Scott Brooks or Kevin Durant. His turnover rate (11.1) is down, his assist rate (26.7) is up and he can still score 25-plus points when necessary. If you ever read about the impossibility of teaching a 2-guard to play the point, just revel in what's going on in Oklahoma City.

Russ is ranked #1 among sophomore guards:

Westbrook has been a better all-around player this season and it's showing in his stats and in the Thunder's win column. Exactly a year ago, Oklahoma City had a total of six wins. Six. It currently has 21.

The quarterback for his team, Westbrook is as much a reason for the Thunder's success as Scott Brooks or Kevin Durant. His turnover rate (11.1) is down, his assist rate (26.7) is up and he can still score 25-plus points when necessary. If you ever read about the impossibility of teaching a 2-guard to play the point, just revel in what's going on in Oklahoma City.

I would like to make a point that if we sign a big FA, like Bosh, although we may not have enough to offer $20 mil per, then we can go over the cap to resign our home grown players, if we wait, then we have to depend on trades. Are the thunder going to make enough money to be over the salary cap? We can only hope and support the team as much as possible.

Can anybody with insider access tell me where Westbrook is ranked this week?

@justin
I wasn't assuming either way, but deciding what the team needs long term is hard to do when your players are so young. But I would agree that there is a window, before we hand out max contracts to durant and westbrook, where we can benefit from our capspace. But I think you underestimate the longevity that most players, especially big men like Lee, want in a new contract. Lee returned to the Knicks, where he knew he would thrive in the system, in hopes of garnering a big contract this season, I doubt he would have come so cheap here on the same deal.

I think that it probably is tough for the nba players to find women who are in a relationship with them for the right reasons, some want fame, money, status with their friends, and even the genuine ones would be hard to find bceause how could a player trust that they are being real.

girlballer :
(Not any more weird than spending a shameful lot of time on a local blog devoted to said basketball players and their team…..when I really have much more productive things to do)

I can only imagine how much time is wasted on here, i know i spend hours a day on here, usually researching stuff for posts.

@girlballer
No I don't think it's weird. I mean, that's what we all want for our own selves, friends, etc.

The Hooters girls, "hot Okie girls" subject is just for fun and jokes though. I don't read much into it. When it comes to real relationships, we're on a whole different subject.

@Dan2

I'm not gonna argue every point, I'm just saying there's a window of opportunity to sign a free agent or trade for a player on a reasonable long term contract. We have one star player and one borderline star, everything else on this team is unproven. I feel we need a proven asset to hedge the bets, and possibly the third star on this team. Then, if James Harden, Serge Ibaka, or even Jeff Green develop, we have a GOOD PROBLEM.

I am assuming for the sake of argument that the free agent or traded player works out and produces to the level of the contract. The same way others seem to assume all our young assets will pan out and warrant extravagant extensions. Obviously, if we signed or traded for a player and they did not produce to their contract, that's a bad thing. You take that risk in the NBA if you want to win; otherwise it's a total crapshoot and you're hoping all your young players develope the way you want.

@Jax--as always a sound voice of reason. I have avoided commenting on the Hooters girl stuff, and the "hot Okie girls" debates on here, but I CAN understand how difficult it would be to meet people of your age/interests when you are a 20 year old professional basketball player. I feel very maternal about our core team of players and I want the best for them--if that means suggesting ways that they could meet some attractive, nice, educated girls I don't think that is TOO weird. (Not any more weird than spending a shameful lot of time on a local blog devoted to said basketball players and their team.....when I really have much more productive things to do)

#1: At no point since Lying Bastard bought the team or Presti was hired has the Thunder tanked. Tank means losing games on purpose, on the floor, not based on personnel moves made by the front office. A GM can't be judged just by immediate results--s/he has to look at the medium/long term, salary and other constraints, balance risk and reward, etc. OKC has never tanked.

justin : Rookie scale players are valuable because when you have them there’s a window to bring in free agents to build a successful team. By neglecting to do this, you defeat the whole purpose of the rookie scale.

#2: I agree completely. The opportunity is now, and once it's gone, there won't be another one for years to come (unless you blow up the team again). Although it's not the purpose of the rookie scale, it is the opportunity provided. If the team is serious about winning, Presti must use this opportunity. Even to do what Portland did--snag an asset with available space before it is gone and figure out the details later--is a commitment to winning. Andre Miller was a shrewd acquisition, who can still be turned into something else if they want. As a fan, I really don't care about the financial status of ownership, I want to see the team exercise every possible competitive advantage, and this is a test of how committed the ownership will actually be to spending (wisely) in order to win. We're not talking about becoming the top spenders in the league--but if OKC doesn't end up in the middle ground, it will be a big disappointment to me.

@girlballer

I'm not sure that our midwestern culture is comfortable for these east and west coast guys. I married a hometown cutie, born and raised in Norman, but I'm from OK/TX myself. I think it's complicated enough trying to get to know the opposite sex as it is, let alone throwing fame and fortune into the mix. But then you add a different culture/mindset/attitude to the issue... it might just prove to be more than a 20 year old knows what to do with.

Then again, people are people, and as long as there is maturity involved, and selfishness left at the door, I think it could work.

It's funny to get into relationship stuff on a basketball blog. The one thing I've learned in my life thus far, is that no matter your age or experience, everyone is an amateur at relationships.

@justin
Justin, maybe you haven't looked at nba history and how many teams have been hampered by big contracts that keep them from contending for years. By having payroll flexibility people give us picks and players for our cap space, thats amazing, no talent going out only coming in. Presti has brought in a lot of players, and until you know what you have then you can't go out and spend a bunch of money. If you look at Memphis, or the clippers, warriors, knicks, or wizards, they all made the playoffs at one point, spending money on a top FA, but were not able to sustain a solid core. If you look at the spurs, they have been great, making the playoffs every year for the last decade almost, because they preserve a good core. Until we know what we have in Ibaka and mullens and even green, we can't go out and commit to a david lee or carlos boozer, not yet. It takes most players 3 years to mature and reach that level where most of their potential has been reached, longer for big men. I'm not saying you just wait around until all your players develop, cuz you draft new players every year and you will forever be waiting, but it's also foolish to runoff and sign a big contract as soon as your rookies or sophmores show potential. Let's say we signed Lee for $10 mil for 4 years last summer. What would you do if Green, in his 3rd year, broke out and become really good? You can't keep both long term, you might be able to keep green after his rookie contract expires. That isn't happening, but you have to think ahead a little. Let the young guys grow a little more, let the picture get clearer, before you make THE move to shore up the team into a perennial title contender. What if Presti had over-reacted to westbrook's rookie year, bringing in andre miller? Westbook doesn't get nearly the minutes, maybe doesn't start, and pushes back his development. If Presti isn't making moves next year, and summer 2011, then I'll be worried, and we can start getting into an uproar. Patience is a virtue, one that can be seen in teams near the top and nonexistent in the ones at the bottom.

We all know they go to Mickey Mantles after every home game. Couldn't someone (or better yet their wife or girlfriend) conveniently arrange to be hosting a "girls night" or "bachelorette" party there at say 10ish?

“Me and my bros in houstouns talkin about females and settling down..A couple of us are ready for a real relationship. [from @KevinDurant35]

It really bothers me that you guys can't help the players out a little more! Royce has bragged endlessly about his wife the former OU cheerleader (just kidding Royce ;) yet I have seen no efforts to finagle a parade of attractive, educated, NICE girls into their sights? I have stayed out of this "are there hot girls in Oklahoma" debate (for obvious reasons...) but STILL!! The problem is that the only women these young guys meet are waitresses and the occaisional stripper!! Can't someone throw a "mixer" for the OU and Women's Athletics dept. including cheer and pom obviously and invite a player or two for a "motivational talk?" How hard is that?

***Obviously this holds true for well-heeled OSU grads as well! Boone?

You say he hasnt done much. What do expect out of that many years. Rebuilding takes umm.... what is it.... o yeah time. No one made the comment about the trade for sefolosha. That was huge pick up for us! I think presti has done an amazing job setting up the foundation for our team to be great. Maynor, Sef, Ibaka,,Westbrook Harden, Durant, green (as backup) and mullens (as a back up) are solid players that and may contribute for us for many years and they are so young still with so much upside! If nothing gets done by the end of the year or in the offseason then we can say he is being conservative and you guys can start complaining. Till then I don't think there really is much to complain about. He has done so much with so little already I don't see anything changing.

@justin
There's also the chance that you sign a big free agent, he busts, and you're screwed with no money in pocket. I'm not saying it's the wrong way to go, honestly, as long it seems like he's trying to make smart moves instead of just any move that comes across the desk, but I think the idea is it's better to bust under the cap than over it.

I think something will go down between now and next summer. I think something has to go down between now and next summer. We're no longer at the point where we can rest on our laurels and hope KD pulls us through. I think Presti knows that. Hopefully.

It's mind boggling to me. If Sam Presti sits on his hands this offseason, drafts Larry Sanders and calls it a summer.. I can totally see Darnell writing up an article praising Sam Presti for his genius, elated that his team won't be in 'salary cap hell'.

Meanwhile, we extend Kevin Durant, we extend Jeff Green, and all our other players down the list. If they all do not work out perfectly, this team is screwed -- but it'd be OK because we're operating at $2 million above the salary cap. :)

@justin

I blame the local media. The only people Presti had to dupe were the talking heads on the Sports Animal (easy -- they have no clue about the NBA nor does the station appear compelled to find even a moderately talented NBA analyst) and the Oklahoman (e.g. Darnell Mayberry who appears completely unable to do say anything critical or do anything but read the company line).

ESPN will have some things to say about OKC if we do absolutely nothing this off season. People will catch on then. OKC as a whole just isn't a savvy NBA market. Maybe some day...

@f5alcon
I was really just giving justin a hard time. I think Presti has done just about everything right since the team got here. We're at year 2.5 since lucking out and getting Durant. There's no reason to rush into something right now. I prefer his slow and deliberate technique to just jumping in guns blazing, sacrificing his long-term plan.

f5alcon :

Omar :Here’s to KD marrying an Oklahoman girl that convinces him to stay in state for his entire career

or at least knock one up

ROFL

@Dylan
He tried to get us chandler but that didnt work, its not that he is opposed to making big deals, he is just careful, one bad move could screw the team up for years, really he has replaced the entire roster except for collison.

@Boots
I think the correlation is just being made backwards. Steals don't trend towards good defense, good defense trends toward steals. A good defense puts its players in position to get a hand on the ball, whether it be a steal or contest. A player who just goes for steals has little bearing on his or the rest of the team's likelihood to contest.

Yeah, aside from two steals via trade, drafting well and setting the team up well financially for the immediate future and loading us up with tradeable contracts and a bevy of draft picks, Presti hasn't done much.

Omar :
Here’s to KD marrying an Oklahoman girl that convinces him to stay in state for his entire career

or at least knock one up

@justin
Fair enough. I understand completely.

Omar :Here’s to KD marrying an Oklahoman girl that convinces him to stay in state for his entire career

Now this is an evil plan to execute! hehe ;)

@justin

actually the reason the rookie scale is there is to protect teams from having Jamarcus Russel syndrome.. aka gambling a HUGE amount of cash locked up in an unproven rookie (that is a bust now :P)

(nerdy comment commence:) Now after reading that HP article on steals, I have to say the statisical evidence is a little shaky. He even admits that the R-squared is low (EXTREMELY low). That chart showed that the data was all over the place. You can show that there is a general trend that steals lead to better defense from the best fit line and regression data, but I'm not sure how strong that relationship is in thre real world based on the evidence.

@Lefty

I didn't mention Krstic.. I'm still healing from the Spurs game. :)

justin :
In fact, aside from the Thabo Sefolosha trade and possibly the Eric Maynor trade, Sam Presti hasn’t really done anything to improve the team aside from just making draft selections. He’s done a fine job of clearing the dead wood from the roster and gaining financial flexibility, but until he uses that flexibility to improve the team what has he really done?

I think the Krstic signing has to be considered a good move. Regardless of his output, it was clearly a move where Presti was trying to make the team better, Krstic had played at a relatively high level before, and just because you get someone on the cheap doesn't mean you're necessarily being cheap (especially considering what we had at center before Nenad was brought in). And the offer to C.J. Miles wasn't for no reason, it just didn't go through. He's done a lot to make the team better, but I have to agree that eventually, the cap space has to become players, or all of the work he's done is really for nothing.

I haven't read that last article yet, but just wanted to say being a Mizzou Basketball fan, steals are very important. One might say they win us games

Here's to KD marrying an Oklahoman girl that convinces him to stay in state for his entire career

I wouldn't say that we were tanking after Kevin's first year, but I wouldn't say the FO was actively trying to win more games. I think it was obvious that we weren't a playoff team no matter who we picked up, and so the team actively put young player development over best possible lineups. This year is strange in that I don't think we are playing specifically for player development or best lineups. If we went all young, Harden would start over Thabo. If we went all best lineup, Green or Krstic would be on the bench (as would Thabo for many games).

I'm not a fan of the Nichol article as it manages to articulate nothing. Are steals good? Of course. In a vacuum, every time you take possession from the opponent, you've helped the team. Of course, the r value isn't impressive, nor are his plots. The problem is that steals don't occur in a vacuum. AI was consistently a steal leader, and he couldn't guard a loose ball. A good defense will force more turnovers from steals, that seems obvious, thus the correlation. But a bad defender will often gamble for steals since his defensive impact gambling or not is about the same.

Also, Sam Presti seems to have all of Oklahoma convinced of the fact that the Thunder need to save their cap space and money to re-sign their core players. This is ridiculous. Rookie scale players are valuable because when you have them there's a window to bring in free agents to build a successful team. By neglecting to do this, you defeat the whole purpose of the rookie scale.

Obviously you can't go gung ho into free agency and sign two players to maximum contracts, but the degree to which many OKC fans scoff at even a reasonable free agency acquisition ($10 million or so) is entirely unique to the league. Perhaps that's Sam Presti's greatest achievement.. his fans are the only ones in the league that would understand if he's a cheapskate. :)

Seattle definitely was not interested in winning basketball games in Kevin Durant's rookie season. The Ray Allen trade (pennies on the dollar..), the hiring of P.J. Carlesimo (terrible decision hardly ever brought up by Presti apologists), the slew of salary cap oriented trades that did not bring talent back, Adrian Griffin and Donyell Marshall getting NBA minutes..

I'm not sure you could call it tanking because the players were trying to win games, but Sam Presti did nothing to help the team win basketball games his first 1.5 seasons with the franchise until he went for the Tyson Chandler trade.

In fact, aside from the Thabo Sefolosha trade and possibly the Eric Maynor trade, Sam Presti hasn't really done anything to improve the team aside from just making draft selections. He's done a fine job of clearing the dead wood from the roster and gaining financial flexibility, but until he uses that flexibility to improve the team what has he really done?

This is why I hope he does something with the cap space in the offseason, or with the expiring contracts. If he doesn't, it's an indication that the team won't spend money, and teams that don't spend money don't usually win.

@Clark Matthews
Just because Sam wants to wait and see what happens with the players we have and also not blow our money on FA doesn't mean we are trying to tank and not make the playoffs this year. Maybe he is more concerned about having the money available to resign our core players instead of using it just to say we made the playoffs this year. We aren't tanking if we are tanking this year then this is the worse tanking job I have ever seen.

Dwyer definitely has a point about tanking the first two seasons of Kevin Durant's career. Not that they were trying to lose, but Presti was not making moves with the objective of winning more games immediately. Maybe he's stretching a little by saying they were trying to tank this season, but they really haven't done anything to indicate they WANT to make the playoffs this season. Maynor's acquisition, while actually accomplishing that, really was with future seasons in mind.