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Sunday Discussion – The Harden Hourglass

Watches are so named as a reminder – if you don’t watch carefully what you do with your time, it will slip away from you – Drew Sirtors

(Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)

(Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)

Forty-eight minutes. Forty-eight nerve-amplifying, pupil-dilating and excitedly exhausting minutes is just not enough. At least not for the Thunder’s shooting guard duality. And so, with two very different but equally impactful players on their roster, that age-old issue of time creeps its ugly head again. Is there enough time for both James Harden and Thabo Sefolosha on the court to both make the kind of impact they can to help the Thunder win games?

Maybe. But what if there is a more pressing question underlying the question of minutes itself? What if the real question is: Do Thabo and James affect the outcome of a game in a positive way equally?

Now there’s a dilemma. That’s a question that I’m not sure any of us really want to answer. Well, this isn’t a place for the faint of heart fan so let’s see how they each rank up among the NBA’s elite SG’s to get a better picture. Before we do that, let us not forget those individual grains of sand in the hourglass that both players have in a game thus far.

Thabo Sefolosha averages 32.5 minutes a game; James Harden averages 21.2 minutes a game.

Now onto where each ranks among the league’s leading shooting guards…

Thabo is 10th in the league in steals among SG’s. Surprisingly enough, Harden is 13th in the league in steals among SG’s, only 3 spots behind Thabo. Of that Top 15, Harden is the only member to not average 30+ minutes a game.
Harden is 14th in the league in assists among SG’s, the only member of the Top 15 to not average 30+ minutes a game. Thabo is 24th in the league in assists among SG’s.

Harden is 19th in the league in points among SG’s, the only member of the Top 20 to not average 25+ minutes a game.  Thabo finds himself at 33rd in the league in points among SG’s.

Thabo is 2nd in the league in rebounds among SG’s. Harden is 18th in the league in rebounds among SG’s, one of only two players in the Top 20 to not average 25+ minutes a game (Demar DeRozan is the other).

Thabo is fourth in the league in blocks among SG’s. Harden is tied for 15th with Kobe Bryant in the league in blocks among SG’s, one of only two players in that Top 15 to not average 25+ minutes a game (DeRozan again).

Harden is in the 9th in the league in Free-Throw Shooting among SG’s…and since minutes played doesn’t really have anything to do with free-throw shooting percentage since it’s a percentage and not a cumulative total, I wasn’t going to qualify it, but just know that Harden and Philly’s Willie Green are the only two SG’s in the Top 10 who don’t average 30+ minutes a night. Thabo is not in the Top 30 in FT% among shooting guards.

So what does that all mean? Well simply put, James Harden is one of the most efficient, all-around shooting guards in the NBA — and he’s only playing 21.2 minutes a game. And that’s a problem. Especially since the argument could very easily be made that Harden impacts a game more positively for the Thunder than Thabo Sefolosha does.

Now Thabo is the Thunder’s unquestioned best on-the-ball defender and one of the best defenders in the entire LEAGUE. But as we all know, Thabo is an offensive liability who only does one thing better than most other shooting guards in the league on the offensive side of the ball: rebound.  For a guy who can slash wonderfully and has an absurd wingspan, I do not understand why Thabo does not drive to the bucket when he’s wide open more instead of jacking up ill-advised three pointers.

Harden is, hands down, one of the most impressive all-around shooting guards in the NBA. Not only is he 12th among SG’s in the NBA in PER (Player Efficiency Rating), but he accomplishes all of his Top 15 and Top 20 rankings in, again, a paltry 21.2 minutes a game. He is definitely not the defender Thabo is, but he has made huge strides in this area already in this still young season.

Does this mean that Thabo should give up his starting role to Harden? Maybe. But I understand that Thabo’s value on this team stems primarily from his ability to lock down/mess with the other team’s best scorer early and often, which would be impeded if he came off the bench.

Does all of this mean that Harden is a better player for the Thunder than Thabo? Again, maybe. Now some individuals would scream, “Of course it does, look at the numbers!” and they’d have a pretty good argument. Harden is at least within striking distance of Thabo in steals, blocks and rebounds (the only ones Thabo is ahead of Harden in) and Harden is way ahead of Thabo in the others. But that being said, stats are notoriously lacking when it comes to defensive analysis and so much of what Thabo does will never be scored or quantified by a box score, so let’s try to keep a level head about all of this as we move forward. But in terms of an overall player, Harden is definitely a more complete player than Thabo. But that’s not what the issue is, or the question was, for this column. It is if Harden helps the Thunder win games more than Thabo does, and I just don’t think we can definitely know the answer to that question yet.

However there is one thing that the number crunchers and the fans who watch the games can all agree on: Harden needs to be on the court more. 21.2 minutes a game is not enough. Now if Brooks wants to keep him as a Sixth man who brings a savvy playmaking and scoring punch off the bench, I’m all for it. But 21.2 minutes is still not enough, especially when Ginobli could average 30+ minutes a game coming off the pine behind legendary defender/questionable cheap-shot artist Bruce Bowen.

Maybe you slide Thabo to the 3 when you bring in Harden at the 2, thereby actually giving Kevin Durant some rest so he doesn’t average 42+ minutes a game this year, saving him from a fourth quarter or playoff run (come on, hope!)  filled with fatigued, if not concrete infused muscles in his legs.

At this point, I don’t care if Harden sees time at the 5 if that’s what it will take to bump up his average to at least somewhere around 30 minutes a game. Because if he’s in the Top 15 and Top 20 of most statistical categories in the league among SG’s RIGHT NOW, imagine what he could be at if he’s playing more than just 21.2 minutes a game.

But I suppose we’ll all know the answer to that question, in due time.

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There has been a fair amount of use of Harden-Livingston. I haven't totalled it up but it looks ok, not great, not bad.

@Dan2
And I take it as a compliment. So definitely thanks!

Sorry, J.G., I so use to the articles being written by Royce, even though there have been a lot of other contributors lately. I meant it as a compliment to you.

How about both Thabo and Harden in the starting line-up?

I'm serious: RW-JH-TS-KD-(Center) or JH-TS-KD-JG-(Center) may be our ideal lineup.

Right now our #3 overall is outplaying our #4 overall and our #5 overall. Why not make Green or Westbrook our sixth man spark off of the bench?

@The DON is SO hot right now
It feels flat out wrong for me to be defending Lebron James, but I honestly don't think he is on roids. Guy had the body of an NFL player in his teens- so either he started juicing around 12 yoa or so, or this is just a case of superior genes.

@J.G.
The discussion point that I would like to see is Camby v. Gortat as the acquisition we would most like to see in the coming weeks. Camby is being actively shopped by the Clippers if you believe the rumors page at HoopsWorld. Gortat clearly wants out of his 6 min per game in Orlando- so much so that he made the list of players likely to be moved at espn.com. Do we move on these guys? Which one do we prefer, and how much are we willing to give up? While Camby is clearly putting up better numbers, there is no guarantee that we could keep him beyond this season, and his career obviously has quite a bit less tread left on it. If you want to posit this one for general discussion, you might have to act fast because the point might well be moot come wednesday morning.

I think that at the least... Harden's beard should get more run.

@J.G.

This is one of those games where you start Thabo and get a feel for how his matchup with LeSteroids is going. If it looks like LeRoids will be going off, then might as well have him go off while we have a SG on the floor that will at least contribute something to us on offense in Harden

@Dan2
Royce actually sat this one out, this one was written by yours truly. You can look every Sunday for the weekly "Discussion" from me.

Now then if you didn't like the article though, then of course Royce was the author. :)

One point that might be overlooked is how careful Harden is with the ball. Against the Warriors, he took 13 fg's, 14 FT attempts, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, in 30 minutes, stat stuffer for sure, but what sticks out to me the most is 0! turnovers! He had the ball in his hands a lot, lots of shot attempts, FT's rebounds and assists, and he played 30 minutes, but he didn't turn the ball over, durant had 6, westbrook had 4 and green had 3. Thabo, not horrible with turnovers but not great either, especially since he doesn't facilitate or drive to the rim, which is where a lot of TO's occur. So Harden already is one of, if not the smartest players we have on offense. He has to play more, the more he plays, the better his defense will get. I do like Harden coming off the bench, Like Royce said, starting with Thabo helps keep the opposing team's top scorer, if a guard, in check, where if Harden started, I could see us getting down in the 1st more often. Brooks just needs to be creative, but I think Harden has shown that he deserves a lot more than 20 minutes, in my mind. Harden is already better than Uncle Jeff, if they played an equal number of minutes. If we had another decent PF that could score, hopefully Ibaka in the future, I think harden and green would be best suited to come off the bench. Both smart players, can score, have a good head on their shoulders, who best suited to bring us back from a deficit or hold a lead when the other team's bench is on the floor? While green is athletic, he doesn't have crazy hops and he doesn't play with a ton of energy, both of which play better coming off the bench, with the mindset that your starters aren't your best 5, but the best 5 to start the game.

Please not Green, I would say Thabo because he's such an consistant defensive player and his track record this season speaks well of him.

So looking ahead to tonight, what would everyone like to see done regarding Harden and Thabo's playing time?

And does Thabo actually get assigned to Lebron or does that fall to Green or Durant (or any other unfortunate soul)?

@Danny

I agree, and I always say that my take on the situation is in no way a knock on thabo, who is a very valuable piece of this team. It's just that Harden is that beautiful (pause). Like I said, it's not necessarily about starting Harden (YET), it's about him getting more PT, especially with the first unit and KD especially

I don't think the statistics favor James Harden that much. Obviously he's more efficient on offense compared to Thabo, but he's only been average to below-average compared to his SG peers. He's a bit more of a play maker, but it's not an enormous advantage.

One aspect of playing Thabo at SG is that it makes our starting five one of the longest in the NBA, even with Jeff Green at PF. Him, Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook get their hands on a lot of balls.

The DON is SO hot right now :I have to point something out about the people that post on this site. Everyone is great, but there is one problem, you guys have a tendency to be stat geeks too much. Stats are great but do not tell you the whole story, as any person that has ever played basketball will tell you. Stop trying to be too smart for your own good by using obscure stats in this argument. BOTTOM LINE IS:
James Harden is a far better BASKETBALL PLAYER than Thabo and will make us better if he were to get more PT.
Is thabo better for us in certain scenarios? probably. But overall Harden is better, plays within the team framework, makes everyone better, and is yet another person that the opposing teams defenses have to pay attention to, therefore making life much easier for KD (you can’t measure that with stats). It’s really that simple. Stop overlooking the fact that outside of D Thabo is below mediocre at EVERYTHING else on the basketball court. Having another player in the lineup who can do all the things Harden can do makes us a better basketball team.
The DON has spoken.

One of the smarted post i've read from you on this site, I agree with the part about looking at too many stats. I myself played organized basketball since I was 7yrs old and it's true that thsese stats could obscure people from seeing what us as former or current players see.

I meant to say that Thabo frustrates offenses**

Because he certainly doesn't frustrate defenses. Except when he makes that occasional corner-3, and his man thinks "Crud, I really thought that was a good shot to let them have.."

That's frustrating, at least. =)

@The DON is SO hot right now
It's weird that you say this because the stats really favor Harden and not Thabo. And especially considering that Harden is proving that he will be an above-average defender in the NBA (man, everything he does just looks so Un-Rookieish!). Someday, Harden will be a longtime starter.

Really, Don: I share in your Harden-crush. His game is so fun to watch. I love everything about him. He's maybe my favorite Thunder player right now (sorry, KD--you're still my boy!). But, I think you're missing what Thabo does contribute. When we're playing the Kobes and the D-Wades of the league, it is absolutely vital that Thabo plays a full game, and that he can bring a defensive intensity from the tip.

Let's consider that first game against the Lakers: if Harden starts and plays more minutes than Thabo, we don't force OT, and we lose by at least 10. I really think that's true.

Thabo should start. He frustrates defenses. He forces bad-passes. He makes everything out-of-sinc. Without this sort of pressure in our front-court, opposing teams can coolly move the ball around the parameter until they can take advantage of inevitable mismatches in the paint. This is really, really bad for us.

But, like I said, Harden does need more minutes. And eventually he should be getting more minutes than Thabo. But even then, I really like Harden as our 6th man.

I have to point something out about the people that post on this site. Everyone is great, but there is one problem, you guys have a tendency to be stat geeks too much. Stats are great but do not tell you the whole story, as any person that has ever played basketball will tell you. Stop trying to be too smart for your own good by using obscure stats in this argument. BOTTOM LINE IS:

James Harden is a far better BASKETBALL PLAYER than Thabo and will make us better if he were to get more PT.

Is thabo better for us in certain scenarios? probably. But overall Harden is better, plays within the team framework, makes everyone better, and is yet another person that the opposing teams defenses have to pay attention to, therefore making life much easier for KD (you can't measure that with stats). It's really that simple. Stop overlooking the fact that outside of D Thabo is below mediocre at EVERYTHING else on the basketball court. Having another player in the lineup who can do all the things Harden can do makes us a better basketball team.

The DON has spoken.

@dj
I think I basically agree with this. Harden needs more minutes: that is plain. I still really like the arrangement of Thabo starting though (at least for now). Our team is young, and we need to assert defensive-intensity from the tip. This is important for our success.

And I was pretty disappointed by Weaver's injury because I really, really like what I saw in his last game (@ Utah). He moved the ball fairly well, and he made some big plays (3 blocks!).

Granted, this is a small sample size--there is no way to know how Weaver can contribute to our offense. But I like his size and I like his game, and I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss our chances of producing a competent PG rotation from what we already have (Weaver and Livingston).

@dj
I think the answer to your last question is "not much better." Presti seems committed to Russell as our team's point guard. He IS going to get starters minutes for the forseeable future. That 14 minutes or so in which he is not running the show is just not that impactful- especially in light of the decent effort we have gotten from first Ollie, and now Livingston. No, they are not pouring in a bunch of buckets- but they are not hurting us with turn-overs or poor decision making either. The only spot on this squad that needs filling in my opinion is at center. REALLY curious to see what, if anything, goes down this tuesday on that front.

James :I wonder how Harden’s efficiency numbers would look if he saw his time against opposing team’s first units.

Now there's an interesting question. You could also argue that Thabo's production would also increase against a second unit.

But in the current NBA, there's really no such thing as a true second unit, as most coaches realize that you have to stagger your starters with your second unit guys.

Yet James' point is valid. Is Harden's eye-opening production the bi-product of his competition? His recent run to close out games with the starters in the fourth quarter would suggest that he would be as productive at any time against any competition, but you can't deny that when he comes in against backups, that he has a better opportunity to pad his stats than Thabo does.

Harden will start by next season. He'll have to earn it the old school way. And he will. But that's not the point. The point is depth. Can't win without it. The weak link on this team isn't SG. Harden and/or Sefolosha have that spot handled... and it's only going to get better. And it isn't if Krstic is enough for the starting center spot. As of now it's backup PG.

I know Livingston was injured. And Weaver is still new. But how much better is this team with either Darren Collison or Ty Lawson backing up Westbrook and pushing him for minutes?

Question for you wonky DVR types:

I was thinking about the Thunder's issues on the defensive glass and I was wondering anyone has noticed something that I've seen the last few games. The team has been doing a very good job of contesting EVERY shot and closing out on shooters, which a lot of teams don't do. But I've seen, on more than one occasion, that this tendency seems to get one or more players out of position for the rebound.

Also, because Brooks is having them switch on picks so often, our guards often end up fronting a bigger player. Thus they are out of position again.

Just thinking out loud... any thoughts?

Harden is getting close to starting but I don't think he's quite there yet. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan and was one of his biggest boosters during the draft. But IMO, and as others have stated, Thabo's value is greatly diminished if he is not getting significant minutes on the opposing scoring threat.

And Harden's value is maximized as a sixth man/scoring threat with significant minutes against the opposing reserves.

I agree that Harden needs more time, which I think should come from a combination of things. First, we all know KD needs more rest (whether he thinks he does or not), so slide Thabo up. Second, Harden plays well enough at the point, particularly if Thabo is in to help guard the more difficult opposing guard. Also, KD has had some rare (but quality) minutes at the 4 when Brooks decides to play small ball... could be some extra minutes for Harden in those scenarios.

James Harden is 48th among all shooting guards attempting five or more shots a game in FG%. As Crow stated, because he shoots so many threes (and gets to the line a bit), his overall TS% is still around average. But he's been real inconsistent scoring the ball.

I do think James Harden should start, though.

I know this is a bit off-topic, but I didn't see Darnell Mayberry's interview with ESPN's Tim Legler until a moment ago. It's a good read:

http://blog.newsok.com/thunderrumblings/2009/12/12...

I think one of the things he said that gets over-looked is that nobody on the Thunder is playing over their head.

In the short term, I am hoping Harden's increased minutes come from KD's playing time, with Thabo sliding down to spell KD at the 3. In the future, when Ibaka commands more playing time at the 4 spot, and Green is playing all of KD's back-up minutes, Harden's additional minutes will be coming out of Thabo's pocket. Short or long term, I hope to see Harden coming off the bench, as Thabo's defensive value is maximized against our opponent's best perimiter shooter- who will invariably be a starter. One of the best things about James is that his humility and team first attitude should allow for bringing him off the bench in a Manu-like role without any ruffled feathers.

This isn't necessarily about Harden, though it will get to him, but Im curious to know if anyone here has been following Xavier Henry this year? I went to see KU in person today, and wow! Henry is really, really good. But it wasn't in the way Durant was good, or the way Blake was good (unbelievable scorer, athletic freak). It was his all-around game that really stuck out.

He plays very good D, rebounds, passes it very well (he's incredibly unselfish), and just flat out plays his ass off. And then you look up at the scoreboard, see he has 31 points, and think, "When the hell did he do that?"

After thinking about it, he reminds me a lot of James Harden in that sense. Not in the way they lead in college; Harden was kind of forced to do everything sometimes, while Henry has no problem being just one part of an incredible team. No, I found them similar as far as playing style. Both are very smooth. Both will do just about everything. Both are capable of scoring if they have to. He will be very good, and should give John Wall a run for his money for ROY next year.

Harden's raw FG% is low but nearly half his shots are from 3. His TS% is second best among the top 6 guys in minutes but it is only about league average for the season. But it has been stronger the last 10 games and it really has to stay at that level or go higher and get more shots up to elevate the team offense.

Sefolosha getting 33 minutes and Harden 22 probably isn't going to stay that way; it probably reverses eventually. But Thabo can play some 3 and Harden might play some 1 so they don't always have to be substitutes and you could get both over 30 regularly if you want to. And whatever averages you target you can vary the minutes based on opponent, quality of play and dominant need. And if Durant or Green missed games you can expand both to help fill.

The pair gives the impression of being the best complete fill of a position on the team... and yet by this
http://www.82games.com/0910/0910OKC5.HTM
Shooting guard is getting outscored and outpassed. The shots are tough to get in the shadow of Durant but Harden probably needs to take some from others. Maybe a shot each from Green, Westbrook and Thabo for starters. The shot defense is the best of any position.

I wonder how Harden's efficiency numbers would look if he saw his time against opposing team's first units.

Thabo has to be the starter and I feel that it should be that way the whole season. When we start the game we have 3 guys who can create their own shot with Krstic providing another option in the pick and roll game with Westbrook. When you have 4 guys that can score and do it in the flow of the offense Harden wouldn't be as valuable. We have to start Thabo against the other teams best scorer because if you brought him off the bench the majority of his minutes would be against the second unit and the top scorer on the bench, rendering him pretty much useless.
Now Harden can come in and play with one of the big 3 and the rest of the second unit and provide another scoring threat to a group that has struggle to score for the most part. If we move Thabo to the second unit then the lineup would be Livingston, Thabo, Durant (say he stays in), Collison, Ibaka. I mean it's pretty clear that this group would have an insanely difficult time scoring and thus the need for Harden to come off the bench. If he started he would only be the fifth option, and in this group he can be the second option and handle the rock for the majority of the time and basically run the team. I honestly think that for as long as we have this core of players that it should stay this way because it is the way to make Harden most effective and help out the Thunder win in the future.

@Keith

Terrific post

The DON has awakened an entire movement

There is only so long you can keep Harden on the bench Brooks! Whatever slippage we may have on D with Harden in the starting lineup, the positives will far out-weigh them. I get that Thabo plays good D, but you people have to understand that Harden is significantly better at EVERY other aspect of basketball. He demands defensive attention, while Thabo leaves us playing 4 on 5 essentially on the offensive end.

Isn't this, ironically, the same argument we had over the offseason. Every time we talked about getting this or that, we had to qualify, "But you know, it's not the defense, it's the offense that needs to improve." Take Thabo out of the starting lineup and two things happen. One, each player is forced to guard his own man, so Westbrook or Durant don't get a free pass on a great player. Two, the defense probably slips a little bit. We are around 6th right now; take out Thabo and let's say we fall to 10th. But then, we go from bottom of the league in offense to middle of the pack, a bigger individual change.

I think Harden should get the start, it's not like we can't bring in Thabo at any moment if things don't turn out for the best. And as it's been pointed out, Thabo is, statistically, having a bad year. I get that he's a great defender, we all do, but he has to realize as much as a one-dimensional scorer that the game is played on both ends.

I too would be ok with the current arrangement, though i'd prefer harden start, but even if he's coming off the bench his minutes needs to start getting bumped up to at least 27mpg. The reason his shooting percentage is low for now is that because his PT is inconsistent. Harden is one of those rare players that give me that feeling where you just know he is going to more than work out. His polish and mental approach are top notch right now at age 20. imagine what he'll be like once he is a vet a few years into his career.

Harden very soon will be known as one of the best on-court minds in all of basketball.

I too am a big Harden fan and came out early last year and called for him to be our top pick. I thought he would be a perfect compliment to the shaky ballhandler we had at the point and a guy who is sort of Brandon Roy/Manu Ginobli lite. But that being said, he is still only shooting 39% from the floor. He is doing a little bit of everything, but he is still adjusting to the NBA. No doubt in my mind that those shooting percentages will come up, but for now, I say don't mess with it.

I think most coaches (Brooks included) sort of coach by nuance or gut feeling. Now he feels like Thabo's D and veteran savvy is a bit more valuable on the first unit and 12 wins and 9 losses validates that imo.

Let Harden learn the league and how to play in it by feasting on the other teams second unit instead of getting 35 minutes of Kobe and Vince Carter. Let Harden work on JJ Redick and Shannon Brown.

If the question is would the team be playing better with more of Harden and less of Thabo the answer is unknowable. So, let it ride and let the Rook get so good that the answer becomes knowable.

The discussion should be great. Thanks J.G.

Also, let us not sit here and act like this article was not inspired by my courageous one man campaign to give Harden more PT in the other threads.

I am humbled by the fact that the honorable men that run this website have finally taken note of The DON's campaign and have addressed it head on.

I applaud you all.

*square dances while shooting a pistol in the air*

I have been saying this for decades now, Harden has got to start getting around 30 mpg. This young man is NOT a typical rookie, so I will not even acknowledge any arguments about how he's a rookie and we must be patient. This guy is steadier and more polished than 80% of SG's in the league right now and he is only 19? He is far to dynamic to be getting this sort of playing time. Enough is enough. This beautiful, unique, incredible young star in the making needs to be treated like the franchise SG that he is. There is not an ounce of rawness in his skills, mentality on the court, demeanor, or anything else.

I absolutely love him and cannot wait until he is getting starter minutes, because the moment that happens it means we are a better team. This is not a knock on thabo in any way what so ever, because he still has plenty of space in our rotation and should get more than enough PT. It's just that Harden is that sexy.

Long live James Harden!!!!

You know, I didn't ever think that Harden was in the top 15 of all those catagories, I mean that's great! Heck yeah, he should be getting atleast 25 to 30 minutes a game! He is worthy of a look in a few games at the starting role just to see how we come out in those games as a small experiment of sorts.

Good work JG on the thread.

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