As far as +/- and Kevin Durant, much has been written on that subject. It is true that the OKC Thunder performed better without Kevin Durant on the floor, that is what +/- shows. It’s not a point that can be refuted; the Thunder scored more points when KD was off the floor and gave up more points when he was on the floor. However, +/- is a noisy statistic and doesn’t take into account some factors, and is only very accurate over a large sample size. A player with five or six years in the league, for example, will have a very telling +/- figure because by then the noise tends to average out.

Jeff Green’s scoring efficiency and rebound rate are not ‘noisy’ statistics and are what they are; below average for a starting PF.

I don’t see how Jeff Green compares REMOTELY favorably to any of those guys. You’re looking at gross points / rebounds / assists like those numbers mean something important but it’s a very inaccurate, incomplete method of comparing production. And production is what getting wins is about.

All of those guys had a TS% at least .030 higher than Jeff Green, which is a considerable amount. They all scored at a much more efficient rate, mainly because Jeff is an inefficient jump shooter and those guys are generally playing closer to the basket and getting to the free throw line more (i.e. playing like a traditional power forward).

Jeff Green’s total rebound percentage of ~10% is horrible for a power forward. West, Brand and Boozer all sported a figure at least 3% higher than Jeff Green, again a significant figure (and David West isn’t known for being a dominant rebounder). Jeff Green was roughly equal to Boris Diaw in rebounding, but Diaw made up for that in assists and facilitating offense like a point guard (almost 3:1 A:TO).

Lastly, I don’t see how you can ‘reasonably expect Jeff’s numbers to improve’. Let’s take West, Brand, and Boozer as examples. By their third year, their rate of rebounding and scoring efficiencies were more or less right where they would stay through their primes. They’d get more minutes, and more shots, but their rates of production were determined long before their primes began. Jeff Green isn’t going to suddenly grow his arms three inches and rebound 14% of available misses. It’s possible he may develop a reliable post game and score more efficiently, but is it something to ‘reasonably expect’? Kevin Durant’s improvements over the past two years were almost immediately apparent after his sophomore and third years began. Why isn’t Jeff Green showing the same improvements?

I guess we’ll see what happens.

I dunno, the only one in that bunch that Green seems reasonably comparable to is Diaw. That’s not a very high ceiling is it? A 9 Point/5 Rebound career guy? That said, I would like to have Diaw’s passing ability. I’d be pleasantly surprised if Green picks that up, but I don’t see it coming.

Uncle Jeff so far this year
14.7/6.3/1.8
I think we can reasonably expect Jeff’s numbers to improve over the course of the season as he is still young enough to benefit from the additional experience, and the quality of our competition steadily declines as the season goes on.
Sorry, but I’m still pretty happy with Uncle Jeff’s production.

I think if you used the third year argument Jeff Green would be even further down on the list since guys like Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, and Boris Diaw would blow him out of the water. Even Vladimir Radmanovic in his third year with Seattle put up comparable numbers to Jeff Green in a bench role in terms of production.

I have no problem with Jeff Green as a player, he’d probably be much mor efficient at his natural position and would be an average to above average starting small forward. However, if this team is going to contend for championships down the line, there is going to have to be consistent production from the front court coming from somewhere else besides Kevin Durant. When I raised these questions last year, the answer was ‘give it until next year’. ‘Next year’ is almost 1/4 of the way through and it’s arguable that Jeff Green has played even worse. So what’s the next move?