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Friday Bolts – 12.11.09

Game tonight! Finally. I was tired of this little intermission.thunderbolt23

Henry Abbott says KD has flipped the script on his plus/minus issues: “It’s a new season, though, and players Durant’s age improve quickly. And so far this season? Kevin Durant may have the greatest plus/minus improvement in NBA history. He was one of the very worst players in the league by that measure last season, and now he’s second-best. Only Dirk Nowitzki rates better in Wayne Winston’s adjusted plus/minus. As of today, Durant’s Thunder are giving up 11.5 fewer points per hundred possessions when he’s on the floor. And they’re scoring 13.75 more. That’s unbelievable.”

One note on Henry’s old article and this one. I would hope people don’t do the stupid thing and say, “Oh, it looks like Abbott has changed his mind about Durant… now he sees how he was wrong.” Because that’s a stupid thing to say. Henry just presented numbers. The plus/minus stat, which is a widely accepted stat, so much that it’s in NBA box scores, said Durant was not helping his team last year. Of course I disagreed and gave what I thought was a good explanation for it, but regardless, that’s what the numbers said. Now Henry is presenting new numbers saying Durant has drastically improved. A lot of that is because of the team improving around KD, but also a reward for Durant’s extremely hard work in the offseason. So this article is no admission of fault, it’s just another in a series of following Durant.

David Thorpe, ranking the sophs has Russell Westbrook fifth: “Westbrook’s shooting woes and poor shot selection continue to hurt him. More than two-thirds of his shots come from the perimeter, where he’s shooting less than 40 percent (and just 31 percent from 3). But his energy and athleticism are still having a positive impact. More importantly, he is managing the game better and quarterbacking his team into playoff contention.”

Randy Hill of Fox Sports looking at the quarter-pole of the NBA season: ”Our quarter-pole Coach of the Year is Oklahoma City Thunder sideline boss Scott Brooks. As the leader of the league’s youngest core rotation, Brooks has overcome turnover-producing inexperience on offense and developed the NBA’s fifth-most-efficient defense without the luxury of a certified baseline bruiser or shot-blocker. Kids who play team defense? That also makes Brooks eligible for the surprise list.”

SI’s rookie rankings: “Harden is just beginning to transfer his talents from the college game, where he was an aggressive scorer who got to the free-throw line more than any player in Arizona State history outside of Ike Diogu. Against the Warriors on Monday, Harden scored a career-high 26 points and went 13-of-14 from the foul line. He also didn’t have a single turnover (while his team collected 19) in the Thunder’s 104-88 win.”

Tommy Craggs of Deadspin follows up on OTL’s report on white guys in the NBA: “There’s Mark Schwartz making his Concerned Face and firing some heat at poor Wayne Embry, who bumbles into saying that the NBA’s legalization of the zone was a sop to the white kids. And then there’s someone, I can’t recall who, suggesting that white players like McAlarney don’t get a shot because they’re unfairly stereotyped as bad defensive players, which, if you’re like me, is roughly the point where you threw the remote at the television.”

KD, Russ, Jeff Green and James Harden broadcasted on UStream last night and I watched about 10 minutes. Let me tell you, those guys really like each other. I’ve got to think not too many other teams are in their hotel room watching SportsCenter at 10 p.m. One funny moment: Someone asked if KD if he’ll be in the 3-point contest. Durant quickly answered, “Ppsh, I’m shooting 28 percent from 3. I ain’t good enough from there.” Hmm, so he IS thinking about it…

Yannis Koutroupis on how deep this year’s draft is on the big men: “The biggest knock on Greg Monroe has been his inability to dominate like he’s fully capable of. He’s been compared to Lamar Odom throughout his time at Georgetown because of his versatility. Unfortunately he’s also shared Odom’s most detrimental trait: passiveness. There were too many times as a freshman Monroe allowed himself to just be another player out on the court, rather than the standout he should be. He’s working on it now and making strides, evident by his career game of 25 points and 14 rebounds against Butler earlier this week.”

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White has just 1 turnover for the season. Thomas still no assists.

The general question arising from the on/off data I posted above would be could they be even better with more Harden / less Thabo, more White / less Green? There is not a simple or certain answer in the player stats but it is a good question, I think, and there is one way to find out.

Sammy :Totally off topic, but does anyone else think Russell Westbrook looks a lot like Bodie from the Wire?

nice call . . .

Totally off topic, but does anyone else think Russell Westbrook looks a lot like Bodie from the Wire?

@J.G.
I agree with you JG just saying.

There's some good late first round picks.

Troy Murphy pick 14th
Predrag Stoijakovic pick 14th (before the injuries)
Tim Hardaway pick 14th (who really put the crossover on the map)
Dan Majrele pick 14th (killer shooter)
Steve Nash pick 15th (2 time MVP)
Ron Artest pick 16th (sans the reputation good player)
John Stockton pick 16th (HOF player)
Jermaine Oneal pick 17th (before injuries good player)
Shawn Kemp pick 17th (before the crack) :-)
Mark Jackson pick 18th
Zach Randolph pick 18th (sans reputation good 20 and 10 player)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas pick 20th, Michael Finley pick 21st, the list goes on and on. Second rounders too.

Arenas pick 31, Rashard Lewis pick 32, Michael Redd pick 43, Cuttino Mobley pick 41, Heck Steve Kerr was pick 50th!

I'm just saying who's to say we can't get a good to great player mid to late first round, heck we don't even know if Ibaka or even Mullens for that matter will develop into something good or great.

Green on court- defense 8.5 pts worse, offense 5.5 pts worse.

Ibaka- team defense is 2 points worse, offense 12 points worse.

White- defense half a point worse, offense 12.5 points better.

In small samples.

Raw team defense less than 1 point better with Thabo, offense 10.5 points worse. The team success doesn't seem to be coming from this but they roll with it. I guess they don't want to tinker with what they've got going. n the short-run I can understand that but in the long-run I certainly don't.

@GAP
Historically speaking, players chosen outside of the lottery are almost always role players or players who are out of the league in 2-3 years. That's why people make such a big deal of Ginobli, Parker and Arenas.

They are the exception that proves the rule.

But yes, I would definitely not say that you can't find a good player outside of the lottery (especially in this draft in terms of big men), but traditionally, you're not going to find a starter or even influential contributor outside of the lottery.

Shoot, outside the top 10 is a huge drop-off as well historically, let alone the lottery.

Adjustment: Thabo's 9 PER is second to his 8.5 as a rookie.
An early 'lock him up" four year deal to a 9 PER who also has a terrible Adjusted +/- right now is quite an unusual choice. Maybe you can justify it but it is unusual. As is starting him and giving 33 minutes a game ahead of Harden. To me.

Thabo's turnover rate, scaled to how often he uses possessions, is right in between Weaver and Westbrook.

I noticed Thabo is now at career lows on PER and offensive rebounding, assists and turnover %s. And Adjusted +/-.

It's funny when people say that "we're picking outside of the lottery" and make it as if they're hasn't ever been great player that came out of even the SECOND round. :-)

@Keith
I'd also like Ed Davis, but the value of a mid first round pick, a late first round pick and a second to third stringer is not enough to move up into the top 5.

While we're at it, I'd actually be shocked if Aldrich goes top 5. Top 10 I can see for sure, but Aldrich isn't the type of player or prospect that the teams in the top 5 would drool over. I think you'll see it end up something like Wall, Favors, Evan Turner (I think he comes back just fine from his injury), Ed Davis, Wesley Johnson, maybe even Willie and Aminu all go Top 5 but Aldrich, since his game isn't exactly spectacular and he's on a great team so they'll say, "Well, he had a lot of talent around him," I think he drops to about 7 or 8.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong (for his sake, not ours!), but look what happened to Brook Lopez.

@kev
He had a huge game against Butler, and for the season has been better and more consistent all around than last year (when he was still considered a top 5-10 pick). I still don't think he is a great fit here (still mostly a jumpshooter, indifferent defender), but to each their own. I think people see a lot of LaMarcus Aldridge in him, but I think Aldridge had much greater desire.

Keith :@kevImagine Lamar Odom or Chris Webber if they played their best all the time. I’m not a big fan of Monroe until he proves he can play strong for a full season, but that is what his proponents are looking at. I would love Ed Davis here.

But Monroe ALSO doesn't play his best all the time. So I'd edit your previous post by removing the "if they played their best all the time."

Basically Monroe's passing, athleticism and basketball IQ are very high, but his motor and agressiveness are questionable, kev.

Keith :@kevImagine Lamar Odom or Chris Webber if they played their best all the time. I’m not a big fan of Monroe until he proves he can play strong for a full season, but that is what his proponents are looking at. I would love Ed Davis here.

I see your point, but it's hard to get worked up over a guy that doesn't stand out after you watch his team for a few games . . .

@kev
Imagine Lamar Odom or Chris Webber if they played their best all the time. I'm not a big fan of Monroe until he proves he can play strong for a full season, but that is what his proponents are looking at. I would love Ed Davis here.

@Vince
The overall perceived strength of the draft in question matters too. Everyone thought last year's draft was terrible, so picks last year had little value (even as high as 5, way to go Washington and Minny). This year is supposed to be jam packed with great players at the top and then filled further with starter caliber players down through the mid-20s. Picks this year will be worth considerably more than picks last year. You have to remember, picks also increase in value because the trading team doesn't have to send salary in return and doesn't guarantee a contract on the books.

Monroe seems ordinary to me - for those that are high on him, please elaborate what makes him good . . .

yup I think this is now my favorite comments section I've ever seen comrade.

Vega :
If we miss the playoffs and Phoenix declines a bit, those two picks packaged together with White, Hardin, or Vaden might be enough to trade up to get Monroe.

Monroe's stock has plummeted -- he's somewhere around 15 on the couple of mocks I've seen, and if we miss the playoffs, we'd likely draft in the 11-14 range anyhow. I do like him too.

I would like to point out, though, that some of us are drastically overvaluing our first-rounders. Mid- to late-first rounders aren't worth very much -- you're certainly not trading, say, #17 and #25 for a #8. Bear in mind we got Thabo for what turned out to be the #26 pick last year, and he wasn't even a regular rotation player on a middling team in the East. And multiple picks are worth less because NBA rotations are so short. If multiple picks were that valuable, we wouldn't be sitting here arguing about how to get rid of our extra picks. I think everyone who thinks we're getting a quality center for our two firsts is being overly optimistic (or should be rooting for us to start tanking).

@Brew

You just made my day.

@KingGondo

In my mind, I end it with a simple "You want I should break his legs?"

Brew :@Jax
Raging Bile Duct
Я получу Лопеса на громе. Не волнуйтесь, семьи преступления Москвы известны мне.

"I shall receive Lopez on a Thunder. Do not worry, families of a crime of Moscow are known to me."

Haha. Saying it in a bad Russian accent makes it even funnier.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

Я получу Лопеса на громе. Не волнуйтесь, семьи преступления Москвы известны мне.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
I think you need to change your name to "Broox Raging Bile Duct."

P.S. More rumblings that Nate Robinson will be on the market after December 15th... Maybe we get some payback after taking Malik Rose off their hands last season? Getting a dynamic scoring guard like Nate could really boost our bench production, and his expiring contract is only $4 million.

I think Presti needs to call that favor in with the Russian mafia, to get the Net's new owner to trade us Brook Lopez for all our 2010 picks.

Perhaps we all owe Abbot a big thank you for getting Durant motivated...

Apparently, DJ White got his nose broken in practice and must now wear a Rip Hamilton mask. If I played in the NBA, I'd wear a Rip mask all the time.

@Chuck
I am talking about DeVon Hardin, the second-round pick power forward, who is currently with the 66ers, not James Harden.

@vega
they won't trade hardin...

Cole Aldrich would be the best fit for us if we do decide to draft a big man. He'll probably be picked top five, though, depending on the kind of year he has.

It's kind of rare for a team to trade up into the high lottery to draft a center. Teams don't tend to trade size away like that, just take a look at Hasheem Thabeet and the Grizzlies.

It might be possible to use the picks to trade for a young-ish center on another team; maybe Andrew Bogut, Andris Biedrins, etc., but that would probably involve Jeff Green going elsewhere.

It'll be interesting to see what Presti does.

@Keith
I agree that we have too many picks. We don't need any more mid-level prospects that we would probably get with our picks as is. We need a legit contributor from the top ten picks. Monroe is a good option. I've had a man-crush on him since last year, so I would love to have him on the Thunder.

If we do package trades to get a C.... we could have a potentialy rare starting line up (in my head anyway) all 5 positions in the top 10? i'm sure its probally been done before but all positions filled in 4 years? (counting harden as a starter just for arguement :))

I don't claim to know the mind of Presti but if Ibaka continues his improvement I could see either the packaged pick trades.. or trades for cash.

I meant to mention this:

"The Oklahoma City Thunder today announced single-game tickets for the second half of the 2009-10 Thunder season will go on sale Monday, Dec. 14 at 10 a.m. Tickets may be purchased online at thunder.nba.com, by phone at (405) 208-HOOP (4667), at the Ford Center box office or at any area Homeland store."

Monroe has looked a lot better in the early going, but it's not like he didn't have some great games last year. I'll wait on the rest of his year before passing judgement. Ed Davis and Cole Aldrich, conversely, look like perfect fits for the Thunder. Though, again, neither will likely be around when we have a pick (unless we trade up, which is a definite possibility). Davis looks a heck of a lot like Al Horford. He's big, athletic, and plays a solid all-around game. Aldrich could be the next Pau Gasol or Nenad Krstic, depending on his transition. He's an incredibly smart player who can really pile up the stats, but there are questions about his athleticism (probably because he's white, not because I could outrun him or anything).

Honestly, we have too many picks to keep adding players right now. If we don't swing a deal for an established PF/C (like Bosh), I feel pretty sure we'll be using our 2 mid-late first rounders to move into the top 10.

I must say...dailythunder.com makes my day better.

If we miss the playoffs and Phoenix declines a bit, those two picks packaged together with White, Hardin, or Vaden might be enough to trade up to get Monroe.

I watched their ustream for quite awhile last night and the one thing that really stood out to me was the fact that KD is their clear ringleader. Also, sometimes they would lean on each other or wrestle around a little bit and I kept expecting them to say "no homo" or "pause." haha

Other quotes
KD: Oklahoma is the greatest state in the world.
KD: John Wall is the best freshman PG ever. (he seemed only half serious)
KD: KG is the biggest trash talker in the nba.

Also, apparently RW is in a relationship. I think this explains his sullenness on the court. :)

@justin
Agreed. It honestly looks like the best the Thunder can hope for with first round draft picks are the second tiered big men...unless, of course, they win the lottery.

Though with the depth in this draft class, 10-14 should still lend itself to a pretty good player. The only question is, will the Thunder still have that pick or will Presti package it, the Suns pick and another asset to acquire a big man via free agency.

Whoa. No comments? Can't resist saying nothing just so I'm at the top of the page. Go Zombies!

Greg Monroe will probably be gone by the time we're picking.. I like Larry Sanders or Demarcus Cousins.