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Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: Pregame Primer

p trail blazers vs. okc thunder

Portland Trail Blazers (1-2, 0-1 road) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0, 1-0 home)

TV: FS Oklahoma (Cox 37, Tulsa Cox 27, HD 722; DirectTV 679, AT&T U-Verse 753)
Stream: Click Here
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 97.1 FM Tulsa)
Time: 6:00 CST

View from the enemy: Beyond Bowie

Offensive Rating: Thunder – 106.9 (15th), Portland – 109.9 (11th)
Defensive Rating: Thunder – 95.2 (3rd), Portland – 109.1 (19th)
Pace: Thunder – 90.3 (23rd), Portland – 90.1 (25th)

This game suddenly feels big for some reason. Not because it’s going to decide the Northwest or make a big difference in terms of the playoffs or anything. I mean, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. But it feels big in the sense that there is potential to be 3-0 and this team was 3-29 on New Year’s Eve. Think about that for a second. Just stop. And think.

Not only could it knock win No. 3 out very early on but it could make the Thunder 3-0 with a win over a marquee opponent with the world champion Lakers coming to town Tuesday. These are the types of games we dreamed about all summer. And now it’s kind of sort of happening. It’s all just so exciting. The Blazers come in off a game last night in Houston in which Brandon Roy dropped 42 in a 111-107 loss to the scrappy Rockets. Roy played 41 minutes. LaMarcus Aldridge played 40. Other than that nobody logged extreme time in the game. But with Portland starting 1-2 with high hopes for the year, I’m sure they’re expected to right the ship a bit in Oklahoma City tonight.

THE MATCHUPS
There is one key match in this game: Brandon Roy versus Thabo Sefolosha. These are the types of game where Thabo can earn that big paycheck he got last week. Portland has one primary option and that’s Roy. Take that away and the Blazers may have trouble scoring. Travis Outlaw is an excellent instant-offense type player off the bench, but he’s inconsistent. Roy is constant. I’m curious how much time James Harden sees tonight. Does Scott Brooks trust him enough to guard Roy? I guess we’ll find out.

Aldridge lining up with Jeff Green is another key head-to-head. Aldridge seemed to torch Green last year, though Aldridge’s highest point total against OKC last season was 18. But Uncle Jeff has been solid defensively against Jason Thompson and Charlie Villanueva so hopefully he can press on and limit another quality scoring four.

Steve Blake hasn’t played exceptionally well thus far, but hey, that’s why they’ve got Andre Miller, right? I really like Russell Westbrook going against both these guys. I think that matchup favors OKC more than any other. Durant-stopper Nicolas Batum is still out with an injury so Martell Webster gets assignment. I feel like this is a good thing for the Thunder.

Forget Favre back in Lambeau, THIS is the game of the day. Oklahoma City can make a rather large statement with a win. After the excellent defensive performance and playmaking down the stretch against Detroit, I feel better about it than I ever thought. This team is different. It’s obvious. Heck, look – through two games they’re third in defensive efficiency. With that said, it’s still a young group and bad, off nights are going to happen. So I’m not predicting anything. I’m just saying I feel pretty good.

Tip at 6:00 CST. Go favorite team.

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Westbrook really turned this game into a 1-on-1 drama and it seemed the rest of the squad fed off of that. Lots of dribble drives from everyone and hardly any of them resulted in a pass. Very disappointing but it could turn into a great teaching tool for Westbrook and I'm positive he will work on being smart instead of emotional.

It's also interesting that when you look at the +/- (if you're into that sort of thing), the bench is all in the + while the starters are all in the -. It probably just attests to how poorly we (KD) shot tonight, but I found it interesting that all of our bench had better numbers.

Also, bad shooting nights happen. But 6 team assists? I would consider that to be the more concerning stat.

3-21 is bad, BUT 2/9 assist to turnover ratio is worse.

@RH
I've been thinking about that a bit and remembered an article written about Lebron's minutes a while ago. Yes, 40+ minutes per game is a lot, but at the same time, it's not exactly unheard of. Before the end of the MJ era, almost every great player on every team was averaging around 40 minutes per game. MJ for his career averaged 38, and was playing 37 per game even when he was old. I understand that there are 82 games in a season, but I think people forget at times that the game is only an hour or two of a person's day. These players are probably practicing for longer than any game every day, so I wonder just how big a deal those minutes are.

Wow that was bad shooting. 3 for 21 from Durant? Sheesh.

While we played 9 guys tonight, which makes for a decent rotation, I don't think there's any way we can play Durant and Green 40+ minutes per game all season. I realize they're young so they can take it better than most, but it's a marathon, not a sprint.

Well, it's just one game. We'll shoot better next time and hopefully our D will be the same.

3 of 21... missing a dunk. Wow. What an awful night for Durant

well at least we'll get our nice defensive stats

and what about 0 points for kristic

boy what an UGLY game. at least we can be fairly certain we're seeing durant's worst game of the year here

@Triple5
That makes sense to me.

Since we can't shoot, we need to drive to the basket.

Bad shooting from both teams. we are lucky to be down by four points.

Down just 4 after 3 quarters... definitely a game!

We are switching on defense WAY too often. Etan Thomas was guarding Miller I think and then Collison got switched on him after that possession.

And here come the Thunder!!! Force a timeout.

Good God that was an ugly half. Way too many turnovers on both sides. I guess the bright side is that we're in it despite looking like garbage. And KD needs to hit some shots (and probably take a few less too)

I can't believe we're just down two. Can't believe it.

Russ is pushing the tempo at the wrong times. Brooks needs to calm him down and not let Blake (of all people) to get in his head.

Holy shit, Juwan Howard? I thought he died a decade ago.

This game is unbelievable. OKC should be down 20 the way they are playing but the Blazers have been even worse. Seven turnovers in the last six minutes for Portland, Nate's going to have a stroke.

Wow, nice job in the second quarter so far

We are shooting HORRIBLY!!!

If we could make some shots.... I guess we have to see if Krstic can get inside on Oden and get him in foul trouble.

@GAP
thats hilarious but they haven't given themselves the loss yet.

@Vega
Although Bosh is much better than Jeff Green, Vega has a point. Jeff Green will not be a max player, and if retaining him allows the Thunder to save some money and acquire a good center then it's probably a more cost effective route to take.

@Vega
Also, OKC is a lot closer to Bosh's hometown than Miami or Chicago, which could be a huge draw for Bosh. I disagree on about the judgment on Presti because Bosh is the kind of hybrid player that he covets (can play the 4 or 5 positions).

Gotta go watch the Thunder play, so i'll rejoin u guys lata playa's.

Also, why does everyone want to replace Jeff Green? He's playing well, he showed major improvement last year, and this is only his third year in the NBA! I think it's way too early to give up on him.

If Bosh hates playing center, why would he sign here, where he would play a lot of center?

@Vega
I disagree on the fit. If Krstic fits, Bosh fits 10 times better. He's a better rebounder than anyone we have, and honestly is a better post defender too. Now, is Chicago or NY a bigger market? Yes. Does Miami have beaches, blondes, and places to blow millions? Yes. However, do any of those places give Bosh a better chance at multiple championships? Probably not. Miami maybe with Wade, but it's Wade and Beasley vs Durant, Westbrook, and Green.

Let's be realistic. We won't be able to sign Bosh. OKC isn't exactly the most desirable free agent location. If Bosh has a choice between Chicago, Miami, or OKC, he'll choose Chicago or Miami. Besides, he isn't the best fit here anyway, and judging by how Presti has drafted and the free agents he has signed, fit is very important to him.

@GAP
The championship window is another thing that people don't bring up enough about Toronto. As good as they might be (second tier in the east at best), their timeframe just doesn't work well. They aren't contenders right now, and really don't have the pieces to be contenders in the near future. Turkoglu is getting old and could never defend. Bargnani is even less of a center than Bosh. DeRozan is the SG of the future, but how far away is that future. I could see Calderon being the PG of a championship team, but only one with a dominant wing scorer. The Raptors just aren't built to win it all, and Bosh has to see that. Even if the Raptors make the playoffs, I don't see why Bosh stays short of loving the city. I haven't really heard many good things on that front, but I won't jump the gun on it.

@justin
On one hand, I would point to our current center and simply ask if Bosh wouldn't be a huge upgrade in every facet. But then, that assumes something about this team currently that may not be true. I think a better example would be Pau Gasol in LA. For all the love of Bynum, the kid was injured for every major stretch in the regular season and was ineffective at best in the playoffs. Pau and Bosh are very similar players. They can get inside and score, but they get open a lot easier 10-15 feet out, where they can still shoot a high percentage. Both have been given "soft" labels at some point in their career, but they both also give 100% every game.

I think opposing teams would try to take advantage of a Green-Bosh frontcourt, but I think the offense/defense split is a little underestimated. Whomever Bosh and Green guard have to guard them too.

Vega :There is absolutely no reason to trade for Bosh. If Presti wants him, he can try to sign him as a free agent after the season.

That would only drive his price up even more to sign him as a free agent.

It's possible for him to get traded here and form a good chemistry with the team, maybe even extend for less than the max contract because of the large window to win a ring year in and out.

@Vega
If Chris Bosh leaves Toronto it probably will be a sign and trade arrangement (like Rashard Lewis to Orlando) as Toronto is the only team able to give him that extra year.

@Keith
I have no doubts that Bosh would succeed offensively as a center, but I'd be very concerned about his defense at that spot. This team needs a shot blocker at center, or at least a guy that takes up space. The defense would suffer greatly if the lineup were Durant/Green/Bosh in the front court (retaining Green would really be the only reason to play Bosh at center).

There is absolutely no reason to trade for Bosh. If Presti wants him, he can try to sign him as a free agent after the season.

@justin
While I agree on a lot of the financial points, Bosh played center for a good deal of his career in Toronto. He wasn't particularly happy about it because he received an extra pounding at the addition of very few wins thanks to his lackluster supporting cast. That said, if he had Durant and Westbrook at the 3 and 1, respectively, his ability to enjoy playing C could be changed. He's actually taller than Dwight and longer. The big difference is his weigh.

The problem with Chris Bosh is that he will get a maximum contract. Assuming Nenad Krstic opts out of his contract next year (and he will, if he continues to start and play this kind of basketball), OKC will have ~$32.5 million commited for 2010-2011, and Chris Bosh will be eligible for a contract starting at somewhere around $16 million a season. Kevin Durant will be extended the next year and have a deal starting somewhere around $13 million depending on the new CBA. The year after, Russell Westbrook will need to be extended probably for a similar amount, if not a little bit less. By that time you've got easily $40 million tied up in three players. This isn't including Jeff Green, who would probably be traded for a center if Bosh was signed (I would hope).

Many teams have salary structures like this, but I'm unconvinced OKC will be among them. I still have strong suspicions that the Tyson Chandler trade was vetoed for reasons other than health, and we've yet to see even a shred of evidence that this is going to be an organization that will spend money to win.

Finally, I don't even think Chris Bosh is worth a maximum contract. He started off last year very strong as well, averaging 26 points and 12 rebounds a game in November, but cooled off considerably. He's not a consistent defender, and he's a perimeter oriented player. If OKC is going to throw a $100 million contract to a player it had better be one who is a force on the inside that would compliment Kevin Durant better than Chris Bosh. If the Thunder are active in free agency next year I expect them to go after some lesser free agent big men such as Brendan Haywood or Joel Przbilla. Sam Presti likes his flexibility and unless he's very put off by Jeff Green's performance this season I don't see him even considering Bosh.

Oh, and no way is Chris Bosh a center. Bad idea..

@Steve H
True true, KD's getting paid, but I really would take CB4 over Green with the way he played Howard if need be to pay for Bosh's services. If Presti can make something happen without losing Green then he should run for president, if not take Bosh and trade Green IMO.

Now before everyone gets on my case for saying that just do as Joe said and checkout the game on broadband, then say whatever you will about my post.

@Joe
Great point on Oden, Joe. He's actually been pretty productive, just severely limited by fouls. Westbrook should look for Krstic around the basket early in order to draw fouls. I think Green matches up better with Aldridge than even he realizes. Aldridge is a finesse big man who rebounds well, but not great. I think forcing the ball to Green and having him attack the basket could go a long way. Aldridge isn't a great defender and the more drives we send, the less Oden can play.

@GAP
I always thought Bosh was more of a 4 than a 5, but after watching that game today, put me on the CB4 bandwagon. I guess we should all start rooting against Toronto so he has more incentive to move. My only concern in picking him up now would be our small market team's ability to carry two max salary players (you know KD is going to get paid).

Also, just so everyone knows, NBA league pass broadband is free until November 3rd. So everyone can get a little taste of the other teams. All the games are archived. You can go back and watch any of them. I'm watching Brandon Jennings in Milwaukee from last night right now. Very cool.

@astrorob
If Green stays on his current pace, Bosh will be a summer splurge or crazy one-sided trade idea. I've liked Bosh for a while, and though he hasn't been happiest playing center, he's pretty good at it anyway. ESPN had us at about 11 million available in the offseason, we'd need at least 15 (right around max contract) to land Bosh. Who are you willing to drop (or not sign) in order to just have the chance to land Bosh?

What I want to see tonight is the Thunder wing men driving to the hoop because Greg Oden is super foul prone. Get him in foul trouble early and he will sit. His replacement Pryzbilla never leaves the paint. What's great about this is that we have a Jump shooting pick and pop Serbian Center who can light it up with nobody to guard him.

I also want to see Harden do some more passing wizardry with the ball. The more he does, the more pressure it puts on their wing defenders. If you get B-roy working hard on defense it likely takes away some of his energy on offense.

Go Thunder (I refuse to say Thunder up...crap, just did).

@Royce
I actually think the 18 rebounds is as bad as the 35 points. lol