Comments on: Thursday Bolts – 11.19.08

By: thunder

thunder — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:39:58 +0000

i want us to keep our original picks from now on.
rocky B. is tearing it up in dallas. while b.j. (pause) mullens is tulsa playing in d league.
presti -dont get cute with the picks plz.

By: Crow

Crow — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:08:07 +0000

To complete the check on history- the most wins for a team in the 10 year period with less than a 102 Offensive Rating for the season and a Defense worse than 103 is 42 wins. And that takes good coaching and / or good luck.

By: Steve H

Steve H — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:37:29 +0000

What is up with this site today? Post a comment, and then see it put in the middle of the stack. ???

By: Steve H

Steve H — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:34:04 +0000

@Blake I'm sure the idea is to sell us on an upgrade- but short of hitting the powerball, that ain't gonna happen. Still, I'm grateful for the nice seats- and apparently a free buffet- and looking forward to being in quality heckeling range.

By: Blake

Blake — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:25:29 +0000

@Steve H Thats cool they did that for me last yr when I was in Loud City. I got seats on the 1st floor this yr and they havent upgraded me yet. So maybe they do that for the season tkt holders in LC in hopes that you will upgrade your seats for the next season.

By: Steve H

Steve H — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:07:02 +0000

I like the idea of picking up Alexander if we could get him at a bargain price, but I wouldn’t trade anything more valuable than a second round pick (not T-Wolve’s) or rights to Hardin to get him. A little more depth at the tree spot would be nice if somebody went down with injury, but he would pretty much be just an injury reserve.
My buddy that I split season tickets with just called and said we were given an up-grade for tomorrow night’s game 4 rows up from the visitor’s bench (nice improvement from our front-row loud city tickets). Is this a great organization or what?

By: Crow

Crow — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:03:57 +0000

Last season the Defense ended up at 109.3. Split the difference between where they are right now and where they were and the Defense would be at almost 105. They will want to do better than that to win more than 30.

By: Crow

Crow — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:00:27 +0000

The average wins for all teams in the period with less than a 102 Offensive Rating for the season and a Defense that is anything worse than 103 is 24 wins. For those which end up just between 103-105 on Defense it is about 30 wins.

Of course the Offense might improve but if it doesn’t then the Defensive Rating will be very important.

By: Crow

Crow — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:47:24 +0000

Right now the Thunder are at just a touch above 102 Offensive Rating per 100 possessions and a touch above 100 Defensive Rating. In the last 10 years the average wins for all teams with less than a 102 Offensive Rating for the season is about 31 wins. The average for those with that Offensive Rating and less than a 100 Defensive Rating is 49. Relax the Defensive Rating to 103 and those teams win an average of 40. The defense is a powerful factor in determining wins for weak offensive teams.

By: Crow

Crow — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:26:19 +0000

Blake, they could chisel out 15-20 minutes for another forward if they moved Collison back to Center and changed nothing else.

If you cut Green back to 20-25 minutes you could in the future potentially add a starting level minutes PF or handle 1 or 2 regular substitute PFs. Ideally guys that bring something different and I’d prefer better rebounding / defense or inside scoring.

So far Ibaka has done a few good things but he hasn’t made an outside jumper yet and his man is really attacking him with great frequency, 50-100% more than normal. To his credit though the FG% allowed is less than normal.

White is very different from Ibaka on offense in that he has yet to even attempt an inside shot (all jumpers). Similar on defense in that opponents are also attacking him very frequently. He is giving up about average FG%.

But it is small minutes so hard to say much yet.

Right now some things are turning down on Green but if he is somewhat injured I’ll defer making too much of it right away.

I don’t know enough Alexander to say more than what I did which was that you’d want to check him out and guess on his potential vs the cost. Alexander wouldn’t be near the top of my list but if it mainly about 2-3 years from now you’d check him out if you need another ensemble guy. If you need a star you look elsewhere.