Thunder take down Spurs on the road, go to 5-4
This was a big time confidence builder game for the Thunder tonight on the road.
Go ahead and take a look at the box. It’s kind of weird how close this thing was. Only one field goal separated the two teams tonight and just one three with the same 3fg% of 16.7%. The teams were only separated by two rebounds, had the same number of steals and were in the same ball park on turns. The two big stats that stand out are the 10 blocks by the Thunder (3 for the Spurs) and the 9 extra charity stripe freebies. Nads Krstic was the man with three blocks and Kevin Durant had 13 of his 25 points at the line.
I thought most of the first half of tonight’s game was actually a little dull as far as entertainment value goes. I felt like we were actually kind of lucky to only be down by 7 at the break. We weren’t shooting especially well and weren’t defending to any great degree. We allowed the Spurs to drop 28 on us in the second quarter and shoot 8/16. The saving grace is that they were not hitting from deep.
Our guys in blue came out smokin’ in the third putting 14 quick points on the board in the first 4 minutes and knotting it up at 53 apiece. Whatever Brooks said at halftime was working as the Thunder seemed to have all the hustle and passion. We finished the third by scoring 32 points on 62.5% shooting while holding the Spurs to just 21 points.
The Spurs really made a tight game of it in the fourth quarter with much better shooting (10/21). The Thunder were really working and hustling on defense but almost shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and missed free throws. Still despite the missteps the drama at the end made the game that much more interesting and intense.
- Coach Pop was using a defensive scheme that the Thunder better get used to: denying Kevin Durant the ball and then if that fails, double team him as soon as he catches it. It worked really well in the second quarter. Most surprising is how George Hill was doing most of the denying. He was fronting KD and working hard to deny him any chance at handling the rock. I saw more than one turnover trying to get it to him and the rest of the Thunder offense drove to a grinding halt. It was with this scheme that the Spurs opened up a 1o point lead at 36-46. KD was 1-4 in his 9 minutes in the quarter.
- When I saw the starting lineup for San Antonio with DeJuan Blair and Tim Duncan who was a game time decision I thought we would surely get the snot beaten out of us on the boards. Duncan vs Krstic and Blair vs. Green are just two uninspiring matchups for us as far as rebounds go. But Blair got his second foul fairly quickly in the first and didn’t play much (11 minutes/1 rebound) while Duncan did get 10 boards he spent a lot of his time out of the paint trying to defend Krstic. We actually won the board battle 40-38 and 10-8 on the Orebs.
- I was a big DeJuan Blair fan last year in College, and he is a bull, but at this level I’m not sure he is a full time starter anytime soon. He has to be able to defend somebody and the league is full of Power forwards and Centers that stretch the floor with outside shooting or move their feet well on pick and rolls. He got matched up on KD on a switch and he couldn’t begin to move his feet fast enough to stay in front of him.
- I was reading some pre-game stuff and found myself on Pounding the Rock where they had a preview for tonight’s game. There they had the head to head matchups (not being sure if Parker or Duncan would be playing). They had Richard Jefferson vs. Kevin Durant as “tied”. They had Matt Bonner and Krstic as advantage Spurs, and they had Russell Westbrook with a “slight advantage” over George Hill. Hmmm….me thinks somebody smokin’ the crack pipe.
- I thought tonight that we are really beginning to see the ref’s giving Kevin Durant the “superstar” calls. You know the ones like Kobe and LeBron and Carmelo get where just about anytime they miss a shot and there is somebody defending them the whistle blows? Not that KD isn’t working for his offense. He is driving the lane with authority and he’s not afraid to body up, but he is getting a lot of trips to the line on fouls that are hard to see.
- Speaking of fouls, I really like the Spurs and think they are a classy bunch, but is it just me or do they do a lot of crying about fouls?
- I enjoyed the couple of possessions where Ginobili was matched up with Harden. More than one guy (me included) thought that Harden’s game sort of resembled Ginobili’s what with both being lefty’s and going to the rim lefty so often. On one play Harden was dancing around a screen and took a little jab step and step back jumper and faked Ginobili back to Argentina.
- It’s been mentioned before but doesn’t it seem like we really bite on a lot of up fakes? I noticed a lot in the Orlando game and the second Sacto contest; tonight as well.
- My blood pressure went through the roof when Sefolosha missed the first free throw late in the fourth that could have put us up by seven, instead getting the lead at six. George Hill then made a stepback three to cut the game to just one possession. Later he (Sefolosha) botched the inbound pass which led to a turn with 30 seconds left down by three. Luckily he busted his arse to get down the court and help KD tie up Jefferson for a turn.
- Sefolosha had a genius backside block on a Tony Parker drive. He seems to play big time defense on the Spurs in general and Parker specifically. He blocked that game tying shot by Parker in the win last season.
- How about that breakaway coast to coast Harden jam? (the picture at the top of the page is that dunk I think. Notice Harden’s hand at Ginobli’s throat?) I thought it funny that KD was waving his arms yelling for a pass because he was open for a jumper. NOT! The beard also had a beautiful crossover and drive to the hole for an “AND1″.
- The “good” Westbrook was on display tonight. Check out his line: 19 points on 7/13 shooting, 11 assists, 5 boards and ZERO TURNOVERS. Nice!! He was still -1 on raw +/-, but the scoreboard tells all.
- It’s been noted before but did everyone notice that Ginobli finally accepted the obvious and got a little buzz cut thing going? And along those same lines Nads Krstic was clean shaven today instead of his usual “slept under the bridge/euro scruffy” look? Let’s hope that clean shaven thing makes it’s way up to the lid.
- There was a great sequence where Parker and Westbrook got tangled up fighting for a loose ball in the fourth and Parker went down. When he got up he was crying to the ref and jawing at Westbrook. It didn’t look like Westbrook had much to say in return, but on the next play he took Parker to the hole for a strong finish.
Go Thunder!
just looking at blocks (of course defense is much more than that but I don’t watch too many of the HOrnets games) Okeafor had a block rate of .027 last year – compare that to Krstic (.022), and Thomas (.031) . . . not a big differeence . . .
good post – he is scheduled to make 11.5 mullion next year . . .
Idk, if okafor is the answer for this team. We need to make sure that
durant and green are here to stay, then build around them. but who knows
in the mind of Sam Presti.
@justin
Kev, what is block rate? I’m looking at block percentage, and Okafor’s career block percentage is 4.3%, Krsic is 2.3% for his career. His rebounding %’s are much higher as well. His TRB% for career is right on par with the Marcus Cambys of the world.
Okafor is a really good defender, and you typically have to pay for that. I’m not sure it’s worth it myself, but to me it’s close.
@Kev
NBA trade machine is sucking. They have our payroll at $84,840,698 which makes it more difficult for me to fleece other teams.
it’s the same stat – his block rate has declined in the last few years – I got that stat from the book Basketball Prospectus 2009-2010 (which is great by the way) . . .
basketball-reference sill has his block percentage at around 4% last year..
@justin
Okafor is a good defender, but I’m not sure how much more than that I’d say. Remember everyone was talking about how much better of a defender Chandler is, and Chandler doesn’t get many blocks himself. Okafor is short for a center and not overly powerful either. He’s a good center but not a great one. Given his contract (and length of contract) and specific needs of the team (shotblocker/rebounder or inside scorer), I don’t think Okafor does what we need. NOLA picked him up because Chandler’s play was falling off and they needed more help on offense than defense (in comparison to Chandler). I didn’t think it would appreciably help the Hornets, and I don’t think it will appreciably help us.
Folks going to the Clipper game:
http://www.koco.com/sports/21609413/detail.html
Starting lineup had a good game- about 27 minutes and +7.
They’ve had good and bad games.
What are the patterns?
In the 5 games Brooks has used them 19+ minutes they are +51 or about +10 per game. In the 4 games he used them less time they are -24 or about -6 per game.
I don’t know if I believe that Brooks or somebody else doesn’t check plus-minus raw or adjusted or their consultant’s own formula which is sorta of halfway between but I’d say his eye or their number sheets are aware of when it is working or not. 4 of the 5 games they used it 19+ minutes they won. 3 of the 4 games they used it less / it played poorly they lost. Maybe they could shut it down even quicker when it is not working? Maybe.
All the minutes count but the starting lineup’s +/- was enough to be fully responsible for the margin of 3 wins and 2 losses. That is pretty significant.
They are +17 in 4 home games in which they went 2-2 and +10 in 5 road games they went 3-2. Not much difference there.
I still don’t think it is a strong starting lineup overall and I think there are better ones but when it is working, go for it.
If the trend tilts towards working more often, fine; if working less often, I know what I’d do.
I dont see why we have to give up thabo to get okafor, thomas+ draft picks should do it, we are below the cap, salary mataching only happens above the cap.
There’s no chance I trade Thabo for Okafor. Thabo so far has looked like a potential (if not current) 1st- or 2nd-team All-Defense kind of guy. For all the constant discussion on this board (which I have admittedly been a part of), I think we underrate our center position. The two-headed monster of Krstic and Thomas: 43 mpg, 14.1 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.8 bpg. It’s not like we have Shaq in his prime but I would think that we’re somewhere close to league-average at this point.
More importantly, you just can’t book Okafor’s $11M/year for the next 4 years (I believe that’s the contract) when you have extensions for Durant, Green, and Westbrook coming on board. We all want a monster big man but the finances are going to be an issue. Salary cap aside, in our market we can’t sustain a 70-80M payroll (which counting the luxury tax, might be 80-90M). And a $10M+ big man will almost certainly put us up in that range.
Obviously, if we get a starting quality big man without trading Krstic, then I’d bet he leaves this summer, especially if his defense and shooting trend upward. With everyone saving up for the 2010 FA market, once the dust settles from the “Big 3″, there are going to be teams with money burning a hole in their pocket and feeling the need to “improve” by spending it on someone because they missed out on the big ones. (And yes, New York, I’m talking about you) Since I don’t see Presti as the type to do that, we’ll likely keep going the route we have been, including developing Ibaka and maybe grabbing another Etan Thomas-type contract.
@Kev
I had forgotten about Boston- probably because they get sno much national air-time, I didn’t watch their home announcers much, but from what I can remember, they sucked.
There was very little difference in the record or overall offensive or defensive strength of the opponents in the games won or lost. It may have been more about the Thunder just being overall hot and cold.
Still 2 of the best 4 performances by the starting lineup were against 2 of the worst 4 defenses faced and one of the two victories the starting lineup was not responsible for winning came against the worst offense faced.
They were 1-2 against defenses better than 14th, 4-2 against those worse.
On the other hand they beat 2 of the 3 best 6 offenses in the league. 3-3 against the rest, and all but one still 16th or better. the defense has not had it easy.
Overall the offense is back to 25h.
The success is really all about the defense so far. I am surprised by how big of an improvement. Credit to be divided about 10 ways. It is a long season though.
@Vince
While I whole-heartedly agree about not sending Thabo anywhere (too much value for the $), I disagree about our ability to absorb an Okafor sized contract while retaining our current roster. We literally have the smallest payroll in the league this year. KD is going to get a max contract along the lines of what CP3 is earning, but we should be able to retain Green and Westbrook for considerably less than that. I don’t think our small market team can afford to add max contract guys like Bosh or Amare, but adding a contract the size of Okafor’s doesn’t put us anywhere near the 70-70 mill you project.
On the surface it appears Presti got what he wanted out of Thomas (intimidation of opponents and attitude impact on teammates that defense is important) and Ollie ( get the ball to the others and low turnovers doing so).
However adjusted +/- doesn’t like either of them,e specially Thomas. The error is still high so can’t really conclude. But I did notice Thomas went from 25 minutes a game the first 4 to about 12 minutes the last 5 and only 6 minutes the last two. So are they looking at a form a Statistical +/- or just being very intuitive and in sync with what the +/- methods are saying? Don’t know, probably won’t know unless Sam decides to let Ben Alimar to get some press down the road.
Adjusted still doesn’t like Thabo though the depth of his bad mark has moderated. Krstic is the current rival for Thomas at the bottom. He is arguably having the worse defensive performance individual and team. The high % of jumpers is probably not helping either.
justin, block rate when shown as .022 for example is per possession faced; block % is % of total opponent 2 point shots a guy blocked in a game.
Thunder playing well at a pace ranked 24th.
Doing a lot, I think, to show how inappropriate the play fast stuff was the last 2 years. No real impact on offense but they aren’t getting burned by fast easy offense by the opponent.
5th lowest team assists per game. Subtract Russell’s impact as starting PG from the equation and they’d probably be last. Something that will need to adjust eventually if the offense is to get better. But apparently hard with the current players chosen for the rotation. Harden is by far the most available source of help.
@Crow
There is a guy who calls himself SeattleGM over on the ESPN chat boards who thinks our lineup calls for running. Guess he can’t see the forest for the trees…Of course, he calls them the Blunder as well…
Starting lineup might be the only or nearly only lineup to play in every game. Few positive lineups have played more than even a majority of the games.
Still too early to tell easily but looks like Thabo-JG and Durant-Krstic are among the weaker player pairs. Of course the starting lineup has both of these.
I guess he is mainly thinking offense based on the appearance of young athletes Tapdog72. Too unusual, apparently PJ, Westhead and even Presti thought the same before- but it appears wrong this time- net of defense. Now it is true the offense was actually a bit higher on efficiency per season last season compared to this season but that is generally true across the league in the first block of games as guys get into the flow. By the end of season we’ll see where their offensive efficiency is and the defensive efficiency, which is looking heavily influenced by pace. But it earlier enough things could bounce around and make this interpretation too simple or wrong.
make that … “Not” too unusual and efficiency per “possession”
Durant-Thabo and Durant-Green so far are looking near neutral- big improvements from last season.
Thabo-JG, what is the problem? Maybe the combo of Thabo’s offense and Green’s defense overpowers the opposites? Or maybe it is just early bad luck / chance.
Durant-Krstic might be too much long jump shooting or too much non- strength on defense. Other combos may cover for these guys better one at a time.
I don’t recognize “Seattle GM” (at least yet) but he said one thing that caused me to think about a new angle:
Krstic as mid-range shooter could “clog” the path to the basket in a way- if he is set up on the ball side when Durant or Westbrook drive But does he do that much or does he use the other side? maybe still clogs a biteven if he is on the other side- not too far to move to get in the path of the driver, unless he sets up really wide.
Bigs that camp right on the baseline clog the basket but often guys still get to the basket and get the shot off or get fouled. If the defender can sluff off a big in the mid-range zone they may prevent the driver from getting anywhere near the basket and at only the risk of giving up a mid-range shot by their man instead of a point blank shot when they leave their guy camped near the basket.
KD’s going to get ~$15M. Westbrook and Green in the neighborhood of $10M each (if we assume they develop enough that we’re looking for the “Missing piece”). Thabo’s getting $4M. If you add, say Okafor, to that, you’re looking at $50M for those 5 with 8-10 players left. Harden is worth at least $5M after his rookie deal, and big men don’t come cheap. It’s almost impossible to keep the total number at $60M if you’ve committed $50M to 5 players.
Will want to check Durant’s shooting with and without Krstic when this season’s stats for that are available. Last season he shot a little better with and a bit more FTAs too, though overall a bit fewer shots.
There was a clearer case that Swift and Petro and even Collison clogged and harmed Durant’s stats.
So maybe the KD-NK issue is more about defense or the impact on the rest of the offense.
Scratch Collison as a clogger, not big enough impact.
Durant got to the line a lot more without Green out there but he also shot noticeably worse .
thanks for the correction Crow . . .
I’d say Westbrook and Green will more likely worth in the range of $6-7 million tops, at least based on where they are right now, which is a bit above average for the league as a whole. Westbrook might still be above average for a starter at his position but Green is probably below average for starters at his position, right now.
Sure Kev. I had to dig to clarify that one. It was a easy confusion point.
Whatever this core becomes it will be pretty hard to add to it- or even maintain it- after Durant gets his big money deal and especially with the next tier guys get pretty big money, maybe more than market to retain them.
Green’s assists are half of last season and as a result the Thunder rank 25th on assists from PF. Not what was expected given his college game.
Thunder 30th on assists out of the center spot, 16th from SF, 9th from SG, 11th from PG. A bit more from inside would help- if they had bigger 3 point shooters to finish the play.