Thunder 94 – Rockets 105
Tonight’s game was kind of a sad let down from the first four games. In all four of the previous games we either won nicely or were in a position to win but just didn’t execute. Tonight we really didn’t ever get a good foothold and lost to a scrappy Houston team. How often can you look at a lineup comparison and see that you are at least as talented if not more talented at every position and yet somehow you know you may be the underdog?
Rick Adelmen teams are always very well coached. Dude can put some D-League talent, a beer vendor and the Houston mascot on the floor together and have them competitive. You have to give credit where credit is due. Our team is dripping with top 5 talent and Adelmen has a bunch of 2nd round picks (Landry, Ariza), an undrafted, undersized center (Hayes) and some role players out there making the Thunder wonder what just happened. Truly, the Houston roster is full of very good, effective players, they just don’t have the pedigree. Yet, the box score says it all.
In our first four games we sort of were getting used to the idea of our team keeping us in the game with stout team defense. Tonight….not so much. Granted, this team is much improved defensively from last year’s squad, but tonight’s defensive effort was sub par for the season so far.
In our four previous games we allowed defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) of: 99, 93, 101 and 99. Tonight we allowed 112. The same rotations were there, and there were some good stops, but the overall effort was lacking. Houston was especially dangerous in transition. Whenever they had a defensive rebound I was screaming at the TV “get back, get back”. No such luck. The Rockets pushed it up with quick nifty dribbling or long passes for easy baskets. Houston was also very good at making the extra pass tonight. They didn’t settle for the first guy or the second or the third. 26 of Houston’s 42 field goals were assisted compared to 15 of 40 for OKC. Houston had 22 fast break points to just 10 for the Thunder.
Offensively we seemed to have no flow. It was like watching last season’s Thunder squad attempt to score for most of the game. The exception was the second half of the third quarter when Brooks began searching for matchups. First he used Westbrook to back down Aaron Brooks and abuse him. We didn’t see much of that last year. It is definitely a weapon as Brooks couldn’t do a thing about it. After two quick baskets by Westbrook posting Brooks, Adelman quickly called for a double team, whereby Westbrook pitched it out to Krstic for an open jumper that didn’t go down.
Also Brooks didn’t go with the same lineup’s he’s used in that third quarter. Instead of Etan Thomas and Colly he went with D.J.White and Colly. I’m not sure who was the 4 and who was the 5 but the offense flowed very well. I think it was addition by subtraction. By having Green out and D.J. in at least we had one less guy in there clanging jumpers. We ended up shooting 11/19 in the quarter (57%), but, unfortunately we also allowed Houston to go 12/19 (63%)…
Again, but for the third, the offense was a lot like last year’s. Lots of guys calling their own number, few guys making the extra pass and guys just not finishing at the rim. Usually getting stripped or tipped right under the basket. Kevin Durant had a great scoring night (his first of the year really), and he was working on D and hitting the boards, but Kevin, only 1 assist in 41 minutes? Really Kevin? Russell fell in love with the jumpshot tonight, and it was falling for him. But I’m not that comfortable with our PG being our leading scorer and taking the most shots on the team. He had a nice line with 7 assists and just 4 turns, but really Russell? 25 field goal attempts?
The bottom line for me, and I think others have echoed this sentiment, is that we are beginning to have expectations for this young team. Before it was just sort of “be competitive and play hard”. Now we want wins, or at least some good moral victories. We didn’t get either tonight. But, as we all know, the season is a long one and it will take a dozen twists and turns before we get to game number 82.
- Brooks was obviously searching for something tonight with the lineups. There was a lineup of Ollie and Westbrook, Durant, Colly and D.J.- there wasn’t a sniff of James Harden in the second half or Etan Thomas for that matter. Livingston got a bit of burn in the first half both on the ball and off. First he came in for K.D., but was still handling the rock some. He did make a very impressive turn around fall away in the paint. I didn’t know he had that shot.
- I think Etan Thomas was a bad matchup for anybody tonight. Houston was essentially going small ball with a front line of some combination of Battier, Scola, Landry and Hayes. All of those guys are too quick for Etan. I saw Landry blow by Thomas on a drive with crazy speed.
- Houston had 5 players in double figures scoring….
- Scola is a very underrated Power Forward. I see some All-Star material there.
- Rick Adelmen’s defense kept OKC back on it’s heels quite a bit tonight. I was especially impressed at how he would call in a double-team out of nowhere or a defensive trap. One trap forced K.D. into a turnover and was the genesis of a breakaway jam for Houston. You never knew when it was coming.
- Buddinger, like DeJuan Blair is definitely first round material. I am so surprised either of them fell to round 2. Buddinger reminds me of a Wally Szczerbiak with better hops.
Nuff said. Get ready for Orlando on Sunday.
Defensive Indifference
Defensive MVP – Nick Collison (+11)
Nick kept us in the game when he entered it in the second half. For the game he had a block, a strip, and two drawn charges. He brought energy to the contest while everyone else was playing at half speed. I only recorded one defensive mistake. Kudos to Nick for his best defensive outing of the year
N. Krstic (+7)
Krstic was also solid defensively, as he recorded a drawn charge, a block, and a deflection.
Jeff Green (+6)
Green had a mediocre defensive output in the first, but in the second he stuffed David Andersen and he also picked up a loose ball. He grabbed two more loose balls in the second half, and in that half he had no mistakes.
Thabo Sefolosha (+2)
He was unusually quiet. He forced a turnover and had a deflection, but not much else.
James Harden (+1)
Kevin Ollie (+1)
Etan Thomas (+1)
Shaun Livingston (-2)
Kevin Durant (-2)
Not a good night for KD. He gave up penetration three times, and was guilty of going underneath screens at least twice (these two times resulted in the Rockets scoring). He picked up three loose balls – but it wasn’t enough to offset all the mistakes. This line looks like one from last year.
D J White (-3)
Russell Westbrook (-9)
Russell had two steals: one in the first quarter, and one in the 4th. The rest of his defensive showing was horrible. The bad transition defense of RW that I’ve been bringing up since last year continues to be a factor. He gave up buckets on consecutive possessions in the second quarter by not getting back. When the other team gets the rebound or grabs a turnover, he likes to gamble, much like someone would in a pick up game on the street. Tonight, this led to four points being scored in a thirty second timeframe. A few trips later he also did not use urgency in getting back. He was caught out of position on the side of Kyle Lowry, and he was forced to foul Lowry and send him to the charity stripe. In the second half another bad habit reared its head again. When he drives aggressively and loses the ball (and thinks he was fouled), he will often just stand there for a second or two and leisurely jog back “in protest”. Throw in four occasions where he readily gave up penetration (without a screen being set), and you come up with a defensive night to forget.
Livingston and White didn’t add anything last night. Buddinger went off on Livingston when he was in there and Houston got a bunch of offensive rebounds and layups when White was in there. He didn’t board or help much at all. This would have been the perfect team for Ibaka to play against because he had a physical advantage over all of their post players. I can see not using him against Bynum, Oden or Howard but last night against Houston he would have been perfect IMO because he could jump over some of those guys for boards and when Houston pump faked the 3′s and drove for the easy layups he’d be in there to deter that. No one else on the roster (exept maybe Thomas to some extent) has shown the physical ability to clean those up. Brooks missed an opportunity tonight to get Ibaka some good developmental minutes and help the team. Instead White played minutes that hurt the team.
Does anybody know RW asst/turn ratio? Before the game he was last in the league. I hope this is just a slow start for him. I can’t stop thinking of the last 6 mins of the laker game. That was horrible ball control and distribution. I’m not giving up on RW yet, though…
Overall – RW is still playing better (offensively) than last year, but he needs to get his emotions in check – when we are losing (lastnight) or someone challenges him or gets in his face (Portland) he presses and takes thing into his own hands . . . to be a great point guard, you can’t do that too often , , ,
Sure: Russell has 39 assists to 26 turns on the season. So 1.5 assists for every turn.
Well that game sure killed the traffic in here…. And I don’t expect much better for the Orlando game. Thomas is not the answer for Howard and Ibaka is just not ready.
I was thinking the same thing – I think this place was busier down the stretch last year when we folded up several times . . .
interesting . . .
Ibaka isn’t ready for Howard but he may have helped against Houston. He outperformed White in the preseason.
I talked about how Durant- Green- Krstic- Sefolosha- Westbrook was =18 on Lineup Adjusted +/- last season and further in the off-season and how I wouldn’t use it again or much.
But Brooks and Presti have, making it the 5th most used lineup in the league. It is still early but how is it doing after guys had late season, the off-season and training camp to get used to it and improve it? So far it is pulling a -16.34. http://basketballvalue.com/topunits.php?year=2009-2010
Third worst lineup in the league used over 32 minutes. It is just an estimate with a pretty high error still but this season is pulling pretty much the same as last season. So I’d take notice of it. But Brooks according to his own statements doesn’t know or care much about +/- and probably even less about Adjusted +/-. I guess Presti is letting him be that way or doesn’t think much of Adjusted +/- either? Ignorance or rejection at their own peril. It is not fool proof but it would be difficult to be that negative without really being negative.
Sefolsoha has been bouncing within the bottom dozen in the league on player Adjusted +/-. The player Adjusted +/- data is young and has huge average errors but it is still alarming to be that low. But of course he is a starter and extended early because he is who Presti picked for that role. Because they think they know different about him. The problem I think is more about who he plays with than with Sefolosha himself. But for all the talk about his help on defense, teams so far are scoring far more when he is on the court than when he is not and the offensive impact is even bigger and worse. It is either Sefolosha’s issue or who he is playing with or both.
Those 12 lineups I suggested? Can’t compare actual choices to that yet as Brooks has seen fit to only give those 12 lineups a total of 4 minutes of play. Not that this means anything but they went 13-4 in those 4 minutes.
The thing with the \- is if your team isn’t very good or you go through a stretch early where you are playing better teams, the /- is going to look bad. How did it look after the first 2 games? When you play better teams your plus minus will look bad. It’s not going to matter who we stick in there.
Crow,
I respect your writing,but I’ve charted 4 of the 5 games so far, and Thabo is by far the best perimeter defender we have. Five games is way too small a sample for +/-. I’ve also read where +/- can vary from season to season on players based on the personnel around them.
You think? That’s pretty obvious. Steve kerr’s \- with the bulls back in the day might not have been quite as good with the Clippers.
The thing I’ve noticed so far this season, and yes, I’ve been watching the +/-, is that the second unit has really been making strides. The Collison, Thomas, Harden, Ollie and usually Durant has been bringing runs. But you have to remember that they are playing usually against the other team’s second unit.
Our first unit has indeed gotten off to bad starts in every game so far if memory serves, definitely in Sacto and Detroit. Same with the Lake show. So, with it being so early the first unit looks bad, which of course coincides with Durant’s mini slump. I think though that what I wrote in the summer about pairing the finesse bigs with a power big is something to think about. As of now, D.J. white is a finesse big, so is Green and Krstic. Our power bigs are Etan, Colly and maybe Ibaka. However, Etan and Colly have been playing good together because neither are looking for shots, and are playing physical defense and rebounding.
of course it’s obvious – but my statement was not directed at you – it was directed at all the +/- advocates . . . it has serious flaws . . .
They never trailed against Sacramento. They hammered them from the start.
I’m late for this, but that’s how it is on weekends for me…
Houston is very, very well coached. Every player knows exactly where to be and what to do. They’re super quick.
I don’t remember a game where we were stripped of the ball as much as this game. I’m talking strips in the double digits. I don’t know if all of them were clean, but there were no fouls called, so they’re just as good as clean. And that’s just really impressive to pull that off.
I think the transition defense is what cost us this game. Houston had some success in their halfcourt offense, and whatever motion sets they run sure had us confused a lot, but their transition offense was great and we did little to stop it. Russell wasn’t the only one, there was an overall lack of hustle.
Russell was the leading scorer, but I don’t really mind that for this game. He obviously had the stroke, and the advantage in the matchup. If you have an advantage, you should take that advantage. If it happens to be your point guard, then so be it. It’s not my preference, but again, it was working. 14-25 is a line any player in the league would take.
Jeff had a poor offensive game tonight. We’re not talented enough yet to make up for one of our scorers in a slump. But he did turn in on in the second half. Overall this season, he’s been our most consistent player.
I thought KD had an excellent game, considering who was guarding him (Battier and Ariza).
In all, Houston took advantage of their matchups in transition and we didn’t adjust. Scoring 94 points will win you most games if your defense shows up that night.
Anyone else wonder why we didn’t start fouling with 2 minutes left to go in the game? We were down 8, and just let them dribble the clock out.
“How did it look after the first 2 games?”
This starting lineup was still negative on Adjusted despite being positive on raw +/-.
“Thabo is by far the best perimeter defender we have”
Not disagreeing on 1 on 1 ability to make stops but it hasn’t worked at team level so far this season. “It is either Sefolosha’s issue or who he is playing with or both.” I think who he is playing with is certainly an issue, probably the primary one.
Of course 5 games is short but the fact that the starting lineup is doing essentially the same as last season seemed worth noting to watch it and see if the results change or to call attention to it before they change the starting lineup.
“Etan and Colly have been playing good together because neither are looking for shots, and are playing physical defense and rebounding.”
On raw +/- +20 in 35 minutes. With generally strong defensive marks together.
If you went for your best starting lineup based on player level Adjusted so far it would be Collison-Green-Durant-Harden-Westbrook. Brooks has used it a total of 1.5 minutes so far.
If the starting lineup was -5 this early I wouldn’t say anything about it. But it has been -16 to -18 ever since it was first used and hasn’t shown much sign of change. On raw +/- it looked like it worked the first 2 games but it was Adjusted that still saw that relative to the opponent and the rest of the league it was weak.
But we’ll see where it is after 10, 20 or 40 games- if they wait that long.
Durant – Green at the equivalent of -10 per 48 minutes, again. Can’t see the data on these quickly but Sefolosha-Durant and Sefolosha -Green must be even worse so far, like last season.
Thunder offense bottom ten in shots at the rim and within 10 feet and from 3. Top 10 from 10-15 feet and 16-23 feet. Just basically got to completely reverse everything about that.
Thunder defense lowest of all in forcing opponent shots from 16-23 feet and 10th most given up from 3.
Shot info from
http://hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx
and the opponent shot location page
Player data also available
Durant – Green has about 150 games together. At what point do they get beyond this -10 raw per 48 minutes level?
Soon, a few months, next season or the one after that?
When have you waited enough to know enough about that pair?
The insiders are quite patient.
We’ll wait n see how it evolves from here.