Some words about Pace
With the Thunder’s encouraging 3-3 start it seems like most of the buzz is on the team’s new found defensive identity. I still find it stunning that Coach Brooks has made such a huge turnaround in team defense from last year with virtually the same working roster that was in use at the end of last season. We have the same starters and quite a few of the same supporting cast as well. Yet both units are putting the stops on the opponent this year. It’s great to watch.
Last season’s team allowed opponents to rock and roll at about 109 points per 100 possessions, which was good enough (or bad enough depending on whether your glass is half empty or half full) for 20th in the league. Depending on the pace or speed with which a team plays, there are usually just a few less than 100 possessions in a game. Of the 10 teams that had a worse defensive rating than the Thunder to end the season, not a one of them made the playoffs, and only the Phoenix Suns had at least a .500 record. Put another way, last year’s Thunder allowed 103.1 points per game, which ranked 22nd in the league, and the 8 teams that were worse were stinky and watched on TV during the playoffs.
This year the Thunder are holding the opponent to just 97.2 points per 100 possessions, good for 4th best in the league at this time! Let that soak in for a second. Better than teams like Cleveland, Dallas and the Lakers…(and Orlando). We are also 4th in points allowed per game at 89.2. The turnaround has been nothing short of amazing and coach Brooks deserves a ton of credit.
Most of us Thunderjunkies knew that while we were not so good defensively last season, by comparison we were down right atrocious offensively. Our offensive points per 100 possessions was a paltry 102.9, which placed us 29th out of 30 teams, and we scored just 97 points per game, which was 23rd worst. However, two teams that scored fewer points per game than the Thunder made the playoffs last season: the Pistons and the Hornets. And two other teams that were right in the same neighborhood of points scored per game also qualified: the Spurs and the 76ers.
The big secret here is that you don’t necessarily have to score bunches of points to be a successful team and win a lot of games. The key is that you just have to force the other guy to score fewer points than you. That’s what the Thunder have going this year and its the recipe many other good teams are using successfully this year and in years past.
The league average right now is 99 points per game scored. The teams that are populating the bottom half of the list of points scored per game are the teams you’ve been watching in the playoffs for the last few years. Teams like Boston, Cleveland, Miami, Detroit, Portland, Chicago, San Antonio and the Lakers. Again, the recipe Brooks is working with is a well used success story: staunch defense and quality offense. That is opposed to the D’Antoni’s and the Don Nelson’s (and P.J. Carlesimo’s) that want to run and outscore the opponent at every turn and play just enough defense to get the ball back and score some more.
Part of the equation of course is to value each possession and get good shots each time down the floor. Brooks this year has the team taking it’s time on offense. Instead of running after every defensive rebound and steal (or made basket by the opponent), Brooks has Westbrook just lightly jogging up the court and setting up offense. Not that he’s walking it up, just that he’s not running at every possible opportunity. Last year we always ran after defensive rebounds and steals.
Pace is possessions used per 48 minutes. Last season at the gate Carlesimo decided we were going to be a running and gunning team. In his 13 games he and coach Westhead wanted to run at a blistering pace. In those games our pace was 96.15, which was third fastest, right behind D’Antoni’s zippy Knicks. After Brooks took over he continued to have the team run, but not quite as much. The team finished the season at a pace of 93.6, or 8th fastest in the league. The idea is that you get out and get quick buckets before the defense gets set.
Running at a fast pace can work for a team. D’Antoni had it going with Phoenix, and Coach Karl has it working nicely with Denver, but in a copycat league the smart money is on getting quality shots every possession, not just fast buckets. This season coach Brooks has been able to survey the landscape and put in his system with a training camp. The result is that we are operating our offense at a very slow pace of just 90.1 possesions/48. That, like our overall defense is a remarkable departure from last season. Going from 8th fastest team last year to 4th slowest this year is quite a change. The writing was on the wall last year. We didn’t win a single game when we ran at a very fast pace. Of our 23 wins, only two came when our pace was at 96 possessions used or higher. The other 21 wins came when we moderated the pace. We can debate why that is, but fact remains: we won more games when we slowed it down, and it seems to be working for us this season.
I still think our offense is a work in progress. It’s still not that great, but I think it will slowly improve as our team matures. But most importantly the team is taking it’s time and trying to impose it’s will on the other team by using each possession carefully.
For the most part of this season I think the team has imposed its will on other teams. Granted not that we ran a good offense or always get good shot selections… overall though I think our team as improved a great deal espically when it comes to playing its own style of basketball.
I for one really enjoy tough defense and good offensive ball movment teams rather than run and gun teams.. but thats just me
Durant’s improved defensively. Green’s improved defensively. Westbrook’s probably improved a bit, but he was already solid there. The backup bigs are pretty good on D. I’m loving it so far, let’s hope this keeps up.
Waste not, want not?… hmm
good article . . .
I know Brooks likes a slow pace – but I feel that our team is made to run . . . we have athletes at almost every position . . .
—–
The pace numbers are a bit misleading – they really are half offense and half defense. For example, if you play slow on offense, and you dont get back on defense, the other team will score quicker. If you play just as slow on offense, and you have great transition defense, then your pace number will be lower . . .
Durant and Green are improved no doubt, but they are inconsistent – Westbrook is still an average defender (at best) . . . Mediocre would be a better adjective . . .
I have to say that at times I miss the transition game from last year, only because it was so fun to watch and led to so many great dunks.
But as fun as it was, it was equally ugly and led to a lot of mistakes. In that sense, I’m glad to see it go. And I would think that slowing things down on offense probably helps with the energy level on the other end, as well as transition D.
@kev
I think it depends on which Westbrook shows up. He can really cause problems for PG’s that rely heavily on the dribble drive… like Evans for instance.
He is also pretty good on weak side help defense and seems to always get a sneaky backside block or steel in the lane. He’s not great, but he’s not a liability in my opinion.
Yeah, pace also is affected by who you play. As soon as we play Phoenix, Denver and New York, we will look like we are speeding up, but even if we are using 20 of the 24 seconds on the shot clock and the other team is using 7 seconds, we will have more possessions and it will make us faster. But for whatever reason, with this lineup and system, we win more going slow. Some coaches have mixed results going fast. Westhead has been both genius and jester as a head coach trying to go fast. Nelson also has looked good and bad. Even D’Antoni is struggling. Obviously personnel is huge. The most amazing example is Pat Riley. He’s won going fast (Lakers showtime) and slow with the Knicks in the 90’s. But, however, I think actually the rules now favor fast teams, but the key is fast plus defense, not just fast.
I’ve seen enough to get a book on him . . . he’d rather get the steal than actually play good positional, sound defense – if he has a choice between a (potential) swipe off-man, and keeping track of his man, he’s going for the swipe. He’s a liability against great passing teams. They know RW’s defensive game and they attack it – repeatedly. Russell is the same in transition, he’d rather get an easy swipe after a rebound versus getting back. There is little discipline to what he does – he has all the talent to be a great defender, but he’d rather not use it . . .
I love what Collison is doing – I am sure he did it last year , but obviously I wasn’t watching closely enough. The guy knows how to play the game. He doesn’t need to score to be a factor. I love guys like that. And remember, we had guys like Swift roaming the middle for a lot of last year.
@kev
Fair enough, but let’s not forget that he is young and only in his sophomore year.
Lol… you always make me feel like such a homer apologist
Could this site get any better? Quality writing and a lot of quality responses. Who would’ve thunk? Great job Royce.
If Krstic and Sef are hitting it makes the offense 10 times better. It opens everything up. It’s a lot easier to get to the rim when Dwight Howard is standing at the top of the key and Sef’s man isn’t helping off. Opens things way up.
Speaking of pace–who else is disappointed that the Suns suddenly look formidable? That draft pick might not be so high after all if they keep this up.
That said, if we didn’t own their pick I’d be rooting for them. One of the most fun teams in the league to watch.
@kev
I typically love what you say regarding defense, but to say that Westbrook is mediocre at defense is not only a bit harsh, but just wrong.
I understand that it stems primarily from your personal view about positional defense being superior to risk taking defense (of which I don’t necessarily disagree with), however if you watch 3/4 of the NBA games out there, an individual who actually TRIES on defense, does well switching off screens, pursues back, keeps his hands active and bodies up his offensive assignment during both offensive and defensive rebounds (when he’s not slashing to the rim for one BECAUSE his coach has instructed him to do so) and communicates on defense to other teammates is an individual who plays above average defense in the NBA.
And to use the example of Gary Payton, every good defender goes after the swipe if they believe they can get it. What separates a good defender from a GREAT defender, is knowing when they can and can’t get that swipe. Right now, RW is a solid but risky defender because of this. Like you said, he has all the physical tools but not a lot of maturity or veteran savvy. Payton, to me, epitomized this the best of all. He took a bunch of risks defensively in his early years and only after acquiring some experience and veteran savvy did he understand how to become the glove.
I think ultimately the slower pace is less about actual speed and more about decision making for us. A huge issue last year was shot selection. I actually hope Crow is still reading and can bring up some numbers, but we took an inordinately terrible number of very low percentage shots last year. Part of this was having poor shooters (Westbrook, guys passing up open threes); part of this was poor finishers (Westbrook, everyone not named Durant); and part of this was just bad shot selection (Westbrook, Green, all our SGs).
For running and gunning to work, all teammates have to be on the same page offensively and defensively. A guy needs to know where to spot up for the open shot, and another needs to know where his shooters will be. Defensively, everyone has to get back in transition and be ready to cover the unguarded man, no matter his position. We failed that pretty spectacularly because of the previous points. We didn’t find the right guy in transition or he couldn’t hit, and when we weren’t running, we didn’t know what to do with the offense (leading to lots of bad looks). And our transition D was just atrocious.
This year Brooks has taken a lot of the guessing out of the offense by forcing a slower pace. He tells Westbrook not just to drive and dish but to wait for Krstic and Durant to set up somewhere. He’s convinced teammates that Thabo can hit his shots, and Thabo is proving him right. He’s got Green playing like a stretch forward, not just going with what “seems right.” He has Durant playing far more within the offense instead of as a separate entity. And he did it by simply giving the kids more practice and then time to make a decision. These are young guys, and they have a lot to learn in every facet of the game. It makes a lot of sense that slowing them down and allowing their decision making to catch up to the game would pay dividends.
@KingGondo
I know exactly what you mean. But lets not forget PHX is one injury away from being a non playoff team. (or suspension from someone)
Yup its offical now that I think about it my greedy self wants PHX to miss the playoffs badly!
Great article, Royce. Thanks
@Keith
I totally agree. Most people would think that the run and gun would be great with a team full of young athletes. The problem is that the Thunder do not have the experience to make it work. Bringing the ball up slower and getting set in the halfcourt allows more time to make better decisions. There is a difference in a player taking advantage of an opportunity to create because he knows where everyone else is and doing it because he thinks he can make something happen.
Give these guys another year and they might be able to effectively up the offensive tempo. Right now, that’s not the case.
Thabo love??
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=14283
I hate the fact that I have so many reasons to want the Suns to lose… I lived in AZ and have been a passive fan for some time.
Oh well, to heck with’em… go Thunder… and whoever can help us get a high first round pic by beating the Suns..
Our biggest problem is our offense. Not necessarily throughout the game, where it’s adequate, but towards the end of games. KD is a scorer, but he’s not someone you can hand the ball off to and have him create something. The other option is Westbrook, and he is just atrocious as the pressure goes up. He cannot be trusted to make the right decision or to create anything for his teammates.
Here is the direction I would be looking to head in if I were Brooks:
Eventually Harden/Westbrook will be this team’s starting backcourt right? So why don’t we utilize the two in a way that suits their personal strengths and that makes our team better, especially at what we suck at now: offensive execution. I would have Harden run and initiate the offense (be the playmaker), and unleash westbrook to be what he really is (a scoring, slashing guard). Our offensive efficiency and flow would dramatically improve because:
-Harden is a better playmaker and Westbrook the better scorer, so when you have their roles set up in a way that suits these realities about each of their games the better off our offense will be
-Westbrook could be made to concentrate on scoring, so the burden of making plays for others would be lifted for him, and it would be like we’d be adding another scorer
-With Harden making plays for us everyone’s offensive production would spike because we’d now have a better, craftier, smarter person with superior passing skills running the offense
-As good an offensive rebounder as Westbrook is, imagine how many more offensive rebounds he’d get playing off the ball and being able to concentrate on offense. This would be an extra added bonus to all the other positives that would come from my proposed shift in offensve dynamic
Keith,
Last season the team was 7th lowest at shots at the rim and 16th lowest at inside FG%. They were 12th lowest at shots from 5-10 feet and 2nd lowest on hitting them. They were 4th highest on shots from 10-15 feet and 4th worst at it. They were 4th highest on shots from 16-23 feet and were 2nd worst at it at 37.1 FG%. They were last on 3 pt attempts and 3rd worst on 3 pt FG%.
This season the team is 8th lowest at shots at the rim 11th lowest at inside FG%. They were 7th lowest at shots from 5-10 feet and just a bit below average on hitting them. They were 6th highest on shots from 10-15 feet and 8th worst at it. They were 3rd highest on shots from 16-23 feet and were 5th best at it but 42.8% is still a pretty weak shot. They were 8th lowest on 3 pt attempts and near average on 3 pt FG%.
So the team so far this season slipped a bit at the rim; improved frequency from 5-10 feet and accuracy a good amount; became a bit less bad from 10-15 feet; have hit their 16-23 foot jumpers a lot more (but is this fool’s gold or will it last?); and made significant strides toward more of and a better 3 point game as I and many others here supported.
@The DON
Westbrook is not the better scorer or shooter than Harden and right now, Thabo is UNBENCHABLE as the starting two guard, so right away I’m differing from you a bunch here. Tack on the fact that Westbrook’s production PLUMMETS when the ball is not in his hands (he’s the type of player who is referred to as ball dominant, as in, without the ball actively in his hands and run through him, he will be infinitely less effective, and this really doesn’t add up.
Now if you were to recommend that, oh, Harden should be the playmaker of the second unit and have the offense run through him instead of Ollie, then I’d be on board and support your thesis…if that were it, of course.
@Crow
“and made significant strides toward more of and a better 3 point game as I and many others here supported.”
Amen!
Last season the team’s opponents were tied for most shots at the rim and a bit below average at inside FG%. They were a bit above average at shots from 5-10 feet and a bit above average at hitting them. They were 4th highest on shots from 10-15 feet and 4th worst at it. They were 8th lowest on shots from 16-23 feet and but 2nd best at it. They were a bit below average on 3 pt attempts and a bit below average on 3 pt FG%.
This season the team’s opponents is about average at shots at the rim and 2nd lowest on inside FG%. They were 6th highest at shots from 5-10 feet and average on hitting them. They were 6th lowest on shots from 10-15 feet and a bit below average at it. They were the lowest on shots from 16-23 feet and were 2nd best at. They were 10th lowest on 3 pt attempts and 6th lowest on 3 pt FG%.
So far this season Etan is helping inside a lot and / or the schemes and other players are better too. They are settling for more 5-10 shots. They are getting less 10-15 footers but making them better. They go even lighter on the 16-23 footers but are relatively very strong there. They are getting a bit less 3 point attempts and making a notable amount less- so far.
@The DON
In that whole post, I can’t find one thing I agree with you on.
I’ve noticed in all the games there are possessions where the ball is dribbled or passed out on the perimeter for most of the shot clock and we do not get a good shot off. This happens more often with Russell Westbrook out of the game, but it happens with him as well. I don’t think this is a team that should be wasting time on offense; with below average shooting you’re asking guys to make shots with the clock winding down it can be tough.
I like that they are playing at a more controlled pace and Brooks is obviously trying to encourage these guys to make passes and run some kind of offense, and it works sometimes. Other times, it just looks horrible i.e. the Portland game and most of the Houston game. We’re dribbling out the clock and taking tough shots trying to beat the buzzer, in those cases it is not winning basketball. It’s good that Brooks is trying to get the offense under control, but I don’t think pace in and of itself means much.
Which means if you want to be right, your opinions must do a 180 degree turn
Ollie should be glued to the bench and Harden should receive his backup point guard minutes.
@Vega
Harden can’t guard speedy point guards, which is why him and Ollie usually check in as a tandem (unless RW is still running the point).
I don’t know what their combined ast/TO ratio is, but I’m thinking it’s probably better than RW/Thabo… just a hunch. So while you might not be getting a dynamic scoring duo, you ARE getting a reliable pair that can create some shots for others, particularly when Durant, Green, Kirstic or Thomas (or some combination of those) are still in the game.
Since this discussion has focused on offense, a word about offensive efficiency. There are several ways to increase it. One is to get more offensive rebounds–the way possessions are counted, an offensive rebound extends the possession and gives you another chance to score with that possession. A second is free throws–the more often you get to the line, the more possessions you have a chance to get at least one point and often two (and of course, ft% matters, too). A third is 3-pointers–if you’re hitting above about 1/3 of 3 point shots, that’s better than 50% on 2-pointers. You can also emphasize the inside game, where percentage can also get above 50%. What really hurts offensive efficiency is turnovers and long 2-pointers–so cutting down on turnovers helps a lot, and fewer long 2-pointers helps. Of these options, we seem to be cutting turnovers and replacing long 2-pointers with 3-pointers, which is good. Getting players to the line will also help–this is a work in progress. Offensive rebounding is not a big emphasis because the emphasis is getting back on defense (which I think is a good trade-off). The inside game is not this team’s strength, because we have no real go-to post scorer, so we are unlikely to rise above average here. So it seems to be the first three items (turnovers, 3-pointers, and getting to the line) that will be key to offensive efficiency for now. A slower pace helps because it can help this team cut turnovers while they’re learning. Thabo with his newfound outside touch has singlehandedly increased efficiency with more 3-pointers at a high percentage while also spreading the floor for our scorers. It’s a fun team to watch, and a fun team to watch develop. And yes, kudos to Brooks for the defense and offensive schemes and to the players for buying in and giving a lot of focused effort! I said when KD was drafted he had the chance to be something special because of his immense work ethic and focus on getting better. He is a player that has never coasted on ability, he is so skilled becase he has given 100% to development at every stage of his career. ability+effort=skill ability+skill=excellence ability+skill+effort=dominance. I love the kid because he just wants to keep getting better.
hmmm, got a little carried away! My enthusiasm got the best of me
I disagree – Westbrook goes after the swipe INSTEAD of giving effort –
he routinely gives up penetration without a screen, he has issues getting back on defense, and he routinely fails to closeout . . . these are NOT marks of a good defender -
as
agree with your post . . . nice . . .
Miscellaneous stats:
Westbrook 5th best on assists, highest in league (like last season) on total turnovers. But Nash is 1st on assists, 3rd on turnovers. Good company; they live with the combo.
Westbrook finishing at the rim better so far.
Durant’s has increased jumper % by 10%, up to 77% of all shots. Green has cut jumpers by about 5% down to 60%.
Ollie #2, Harden on A/TO in the league among those playing 10+ minutes a game. Only 8 PGs playing 10+ minutes a game with a worse A/To than Westbrook.
Change of philosophy?
Last season Thunder 8th lowest FTM/FGA given to opponents/ This season 8th most.
Harden #3 on A/TO
that just means we are contesting better – last year (at times) the OPP was running a layup drill . . .
If you foul and give up a low FG% and opponent efficiency then it is successful. As long as they do both, great.
On offense, Thunder still at 40% of their shots in the first 10 seconds but eFG% down from 51.9% last season to 46.9% this season.
On the other end of the clock, shots in the last 4 seconds are up from 13% to 18% of all shots. It is essentially all coming out of shots previously taken with 4-8 seconds left. The shots they do take with 4-8 seconds are going in more.
Opponents last season got 37% of their shots in the first 10 seconds and hit 55.6 eFG%. This season just 33% of shots and 43% eFG%. So far.
They are doing far better at the end of the shot clock though. Guys get tired or eventually the defense gets picked apart? It is too early to draw any conclusions but it is interesting food for thought, I think.
Or in a sample size of just 6 games a couple fast teams shooting poorly and / or a few slow teams shooting well could make the stats more about them than the defense. It will shake out with time. Teams will eventually figure how to attack- fast or slow. I assume. Got to withstand the attack on the immediate weakness and adjust if necessary.
Good to see you back and posting, Crow.
I think a pure A/TO rating would make Russell look like a player struggling to play PG, but I think the visual appearance shows he has made huge strides. For one, the sample size is small, so single game performances have greater effect. His 2 assist, 9 turnover game has moved him from 20th to 33rd in A/T for PGs. Now, 2.2 isn’t an elite number either, but it is a significant increase over last year.
I think playing Westbrook off the ball has come and gone already. Even if statistics pointed to him not working as a PG, the draft and play style of this team has Westbrook as the PG. Harden is doing a fine job getting assists, and certainly has a tremendous A/T ratio, but it should be noted that his role on the team is very different. Players who handle the ball the most invariably end up with the highest total turnovers. Harden is helped in the category by being a 4th or 5th option when he is normally on the floor, and deferring to teammates over his own shooting (ironically what we drafted him for).
A move towards a three point game (especially over a long 2 point game) is huge for us. It can’t be overstated how absolutely infuriating it was to watch everyone not named Durant catch the ball outside the three point line, see an open shot, then take a step or two inside the line before shooting. It killed me. The inside game still needs to be emphasized more as well, but that may be an issue of personnel. Green is still a jump shooting forward and Krstic is the same. Thomas and Collison play more inside, but they see far fewer shots. A major issue is that Durant relies too much on his length and doesn’t take the ball to the hoop. Both his FT rate and overall FG% could be majorly improved by getting the ball inside, which should be easier as defenders need to overcompensate for his length in shooting.
Thanks Keith.
I’ve been here a bit more than I expected the first few games but if I want to, I will.
Overall I’ll post less.
Maybe I get to zero someday. But it really isn’t a big deal either way.
agree with Keith – I like your blitz on “fresh statistics” . . .
hopefully you won’t get to zero – I enjoythe posts . . .
Noting the positive:
Sagarin ratings has the Thunder at 10th strongest. Schedule rates just a touch toughest than average.
Basketball-Reference’s Simple Rating System surprisingly has them at 3rd.
By simple point differential they are 11th.
All sound a bit high (a blowout win in a small sample will do that) but there is some basis for optimism.
Something to watch
On defensive eFG% has crept up to 10th. Even 15th would be good but it wouldn’t take much to get there or go beyond.
Thanks Kev.
I’ll probably focus on “fresh stats” that you guys can use as you will.
They may critique or compliment the design but draw your own conclusions.
It is real early but Collison-Durant has the biggest cumulative postive on raw +/-. And Harden-Durant has the best positive per minute. Harden-Westbrook and Harden-Collison are very strong. Green-Harden is fine too.
The last game pulled the Sefolosha Durant Green pairs back to close to neutral for now.
Crow, I noticed in Sunday’s game at least one of Westbrook’s turnovers was on an overly ambitious pass. Have you noticed any improvement in the types of turnovers RW is making? Meaning is he turning the ball over trying to be a point guard, or turning it over driving recklessly into traffic without a plan? Does that make sense?
Tapdog72 that is a good question and others with access to all the games are probably better equipped to answer.
By the stats last season about 13% of Wextbrook’s turnovers were offensive fouls, 35% were bad passes and 52% were ball-handling errors.
Unfortunately I don’t have access to this split yet from 82 games for this season but when I do I’ll pass it along.
If the offensive turnovers and ballhandling errors go down that would suggest he is being less reckless. If the passing turnovers go up it would suggest he is trying to be more of a distributing point guard. If they stayed the same or went down and he still has more assists that would suggest he has made more progress.
By comparison in 08-09
about 9% of Rondo’s turnovers were offensive fouls, 62% were bad passes and 29% were ball-handling errors.
about 9% of Devin Harris’ turnovers were offensive fouls, 44% were bad passes and 47% were ball-handling errors.
about 17% of Stuckey’s turnovers were offensive fouls, 47% were bad passes and 35% were ball-handling errors.
about 4% of Conley’s turnovers were offensive fouls, 58% were bad passes and 38% were ball-handling errors.
about 8% of T Parker’s turnovers were offensive fouls, 38% were bad passes and 54% were ball-handling errors.
The averages for this quick sample of 5 other PGs are
about 8% of turnovers were offensive fouls, 48% were bad passes and 44% were ball-handling errors.
Westbrook’s offensive turnovers + ball handling errors were the highest of the group and 25% higher than the average.
Were. I’ll check where it all is now when I can.