Rockets vs. Thunder: Pregame Primer
Houston Rockets (8-8, 4-4 road) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (9-7, 4-3 home)
TV: FS Oklahoma (Cox 37, HD 722, Tulsa Cox 27, DirectTV 679, UVerse 753)
Stream: Click Here
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 97.1 FM Tulsa)
Time: 6:00 CST
Offensive Rating: Thunder – 104.7 (21st), Rockets – 107.6 (14th)
Defensive Rating: Thunder – 101.2 (4th), Rockets – 107.3 (19th)
Pace: Thunder – 92.1 (18th), Rockets – 94.4 (9th)
It’s a running theme – with each win, the next game feels bigger. Feels more important. Feels like a loss could be a setback. Especially when it’s at home.
And now at 9-7 and two games over .500 for the first time since 2-0, Oklahoma City has a chance to start a real winning streak and get things really cooking. I said it before the Milwaukee game, but with a five-game homestand, the Thunder could separate themselves from .500 by a decent amount.
Houston is coming in at 8-8 with two straight losses – both at home against the Spurs and Mavs. They’re 4-4 on the road, with tonight’s game being the first of an extended road trip. I’d say the Rockets will come out ready to fire as they sense a chance to get their trip off on the right foot.
THE MATCHUPS
Let me say I love the way the current Rockets play. Completely unselfish, feeding off one another and just gritty. Playing without a true star, it’s a joy to watch. At the same time it can limit them in crucial situations. Kevin Durant will have a tough go as he gets Shane Battier and Trevor Ariza, two high caliber defenders. That’s such a bonus for Houston to be able to basically rotate the two on KD, keeping fresh legs on him.
Ariza is really the Rockets top scoring threat and Thabo gets the call as usual. In the first meeting Ariza went for 21 points on 8-18 shooting and hit 2-5 from deep. Much like Milwaukee, the Rockets are undersized a bit inside with Chuck Hayes playing the five. But Hayes does yeoman’s work pulling down boards, taking charges and basically doing everything the box score doesn’t record.
Luis Scola has always been a tough match for Jeff Green because of his inside-outside ability. No Nenad Krstic tonight (ankle) as Etan Thomas will start in his steed. So that means even more Serge Ibaka and D.J. White, something I’m actually kind of excited about. But that also means OKC is thin in the frontcourt against Hayes, Scola and Carl Landry.
Russell Westbrook went for 33 in the first meeting as he was OKC’s only real offensive threat. Aaron Brooks is quick but much smaller than Russ. Westbrook had his way getting into the lane last time and if he can do that again drawing defenders, the Thunder could have a good night.
Oklahoma City is 1-3 on Sunday night so far this season and this is no easy task. But it could be another good step in the direction of the p-word that we don’t really want to mention at this point.
One thing to consider: No matter what happens tonight, the Thunder is going to be on the plus side of .500 for the month of November. Obviously that’s no excuse to lose, but I don’t think many of us saw that happening considering the grueling schedule to start the season. So truthfully, twas a good November no matter what. Now go make it better.
Tip at 6:00 CST. Go winning streak.



Yah I saw the Buck’s game. They are raucous as long as the Thunder are firmly in control.
Any whiff of adversity and fear grips the place. And it effects these young players.
Scott Brooks made a comment about how the players need to use the home crowd effectively, but not depend it. That is a clear signal that this is actually a problem.
Has there ever been a +.500 team with a losing home record that have gone deep in the playoffs?
@Anonymous
Oh, and just wait for the Rockets to host the Cavs on Dec. 9th.
They’ll almost definitely bet a +.500 team after their road trip (@LAC, @GS, @POR – so 2-1 for a record of 11-9), so unless they beat the Cavs in Houston, they’ll be 11-10 with a losing record at home (4-5).
Now if you meant for an entire season…I’m not doing that kind of research, so feel free.
Like I said, I’m not doing that research. Knock yourself out. But it wouldn’t surprise me. And I also don’t expect this year’s team to A) Have a losing home record or B) Make the playoffs, so…
And, again, I can’t even name how many times the Ford Center has basically cheered the Thunder during a rough stretch to get them back into the game (and news flash, most crowds go quiet when adversity hits). But unlike those crowds, there’s a reason the Ford Center is known as one of the best home crowds in the league. Shoot, the Thunder’s crowd even spurred the Thunder to two wins that way last year when adversity struck: Toronto and Memphis in OT.
So like I said, unless you’ve actually been in the Ford Center for a Thunder game, you’re point is completely invalid.
@Anonymous
“Scott Brooks made a comment about how the players need to use the home crowd effectively, but not depend it. That is a clear signal that this is actually a problem.”
Um, no. Faulty logic. That actually means the exact OPPOSITE of what you’re saying.
Brooks told them not to rely on the home crowd because the crowd is such a huge source of excitment and energy for the players. When the Thunder is on the road or is blowing out an opponent at home, the energy waned in the players and that got the team into trouble quite often and the crowd would be the ones to pump them back up. Hence why Brooks told them that they can’t rely on the home crowd.
Nice try though.
Well you may be right that all NBA crowds suck in that regard. But clearly, it is not an invalid point because Scott Brooks has talked about it. This team needs to learn how to make the home crowd a friend, as opposed to allowing the home crowd to ever effect the team negatively.
BTW don’t have to be at the game, it is easy to see this dynamic unfolding over the TV….
Scott Brooks brought that point up when asked about having a losing record at home. But thanks for playing….
@Anonymous
Link it.
@J.G.
Sorry J.G., Jeff Green has been below average in several categories this season.
Jeff Green is averaging 8.5 rebounds per 48 minutes, which ranks him FORTY SEVENTH in the NBA among power forwards on pace to play 70 games or grab 800 rebounds.
Jeff Green is 19th among 32 qualifying PF’s in Points Per Shot, a decent measure of offensive efficiency, and 23rd in Adjusted FG%.
Jeff Green is 32nd among qualifying PF’s (on pace to play 70 games, and 400 assists) in assists per 48 minutes at 2.1. He’s 9th among PF’s in turnovers per game.
The real sticking point here to me is his offensive efficiency. It should be high. He should be exploiting the matchups on the offensive end, hitting three pointers, getting easy looks using his ‘superior athleticism’ at the position. He’s not doing this.
Jeff Green is below average at everything for his position except 3pt shooting, and that’s plummeting every game (10 for his last 43 I believe). He’s not really benefitting the team while he’s out there and this is also reflected in any of the +/- numbers you choose to look at. The Thunder have generally played worse when Jeff Green is on the court.
As for that ‘one of nine players to do this, this, and this’ thing.. let’s stay within the bounds of reality here. Talk about confirmation bias!
It is a live interview, prior to the Bucks game. I don’t have the energy to find it now, but I will find it sometime in the next week.
@justin
Below average at everything except 3 pt shooting? Did we not check steals, assists, free throw shooting, etc?
And I’m definitely with you on offensive efficiency, but to say he’s not benefiting the team when he’s out there is just crazy. Through the first five games, Jeff Green was doing more for the team than almost any other player across the board because not everything a player does to contribute to a victory can be seen in a box score.
And regarding his +/-’s, I think you should take a look at his results in each of the Thunder’s victories: +19 (Sacramento), +5 (Detroit, the highest + of the starter’s that game), +15 (Orlando), +7 (Clippers, only starter in the + category), -9 (San Antonio), -1 (Miami), +17 (Washington), +17 (Utah), +24 (Milwaukee). For a combined average of +10.44 in each of the Thunder’s wins this season.
But yeah, he’s not contributing at all and not benefiting the team in ANY of the +/- numbers people can choose to look at.
Not only is your assertion that the Thunder “generally play worse when Jeff Green is on the court” completely the OPPOSITE, but he’s actually one of the main reasons the Thunder have a winning record this year (if we’re going to go off of +/-, no matter how much I dislike the statistic itself).
Oh, and the “one of nine players” didn’t come from me, it came from Darnell Mayberry and the rest of the Associated Press that covers the NBA: http://newsok.com/jeff-green-is-the-thunder-forward-ready-to-be-the-hybrid-of-all-hybrids/article/3410676?custom_click=lead_story_photo
@Anonymous
The Thunder didn’t have a losing record prior to the Bucks game. They were 3-3 at the time you say that question would have taken place.
Try again?
@J.G.
“didn’t have a losing HOME record prior to the Bucks game” – edit
@J.G.
Jeff Green is way below average with assists, and has been his whole career. He’s 32nd among qualifying PF’s for assists per 48 minutes. He’s 9th in turnovers.
He is above average at free throw shooting and three point percentage.
You don’t parse +/- data that way. It’s called +/- because you look at what’s happening when the player is on the court and when he is off. The data is meaningless if you’re only looking at wins because obviously if you’re a starter playing 70%+ total available minutes you’re probably going to end up with a nice figure there.
Jeff Green is currently -17.9 points per 100 possessions. This means that for every 100 possessions that he is in the game, the other team is scoring almost 18 more points than us. That’s really bad, and does suggest that the team is better when he is not on the court. His other statistics would also demonstrate that, as he is below average in most categories relative to other NBA power forwards.
Also, as a minor note, even if you accept the bias of your +/- interpretation, you cannot average the results as you have done before normalizing the minutes played.
The main reason the Thunder have a winning record this year is Kevin Durant, and to a lesser extent Thabo Sefolosha, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. Those players are doing a lot of things well, certainly have their growing pains and whatnot, but generally perform well relative to their position(s) in several key categories.
The ‘one of nine players’ thing is a popular device used to fit any player into some other group that makes them look good. If the reporter wants to make a player look good, he’ll find a few criteria and baselines where he’s grouped with some good company. One of the criteria is always something like steals or blocks, because you can really make the data fuzzy. As an example, if I lower the assist and steal criteria by .5 we get a list of 22 players. If I add a critera of 1 BPG, Jeff Green vanishes off the list. Obviously, the impact of .5 assits, .5 steals, or .5 blocks (what Jeff Green would need to get 1 block per game last year) isn’t that big a deal.
Did you know Jeff Green was one of three players last year (Nowitzki, Gasol) to average more than 16 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, shoot more than 35% from three point range, and turn the ball over less than 2.5 times?
Did you know Russell Westbrook was one of three players (Chris Paul, Steven Jackson) to average more than 15 points, 5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 80% from the FT line last year?
Confirmation bias!
@justin
I actually think you’re two “Did you know” actually say a lot about Green and Westbrook, even with the confirmation bias in tact. Haha!
And I’m with you on the +/- normalization aspect, but you said ANY +/-.
I mean come on, you know I had to nit pick you on that one!
Plus I still think your “certainly have their growing pains” comment sums up our different views on Green: I still believe he is in the midst of learning how to play as a PF since he played his ENTIRE rookie season as a SF and the first 13 games of his sophomore season (95 games; not to mention high school and college games at SF) versus playing at the PF for 69 games during his sophomore season and now 17 games into his third year (86 games).
Pretty much, he’s Russell Westbrook’s transitioning to PG from SG through high school and college, only as a PF at the NBA level. But RW’s transition is considered and somewhat justified, whereas Green’s is not. Do you see what I mean?
@J.G.
Oh, and about the confirmation bias thing. I have to say, if a player is going to be “one of only” in any kind of list that involves aspects of the game that signals a player contributing to wins produced, then doesn’t the player’s status in that list, whether contrived or not, lend merit to the fact that they are a special player?
Nowitzki, Gasol, CP3, Stephen Jackson…those are special players. As long as the bar is not lowered in such a way as to include anyone, then by the very nature of statistics, the exclusion of all players “below” the “one of only’s” signals that they are “better than most” players across the board. Doesn’t it, by the very nature of statistics?
In the last 5 years the 06-07 Pistons and 07-08 Magic did it. Several others have been equal including the 2004-5 Sonics when they won 52.
The least home wins of a team at or over .500 overall was 22 during this timeframe.
OKC 5-2 against east / 4-7 against west. They play 52 against the west eventually.
Well done, Crow. I knew I could count on you!