How to bring home the prodigal son (and should it happen?)
(This was written Friday, shortly after the Byron Scott firing. But it might not could have run at a better time. A lot of folks are split on the Thunder’s current point guard, so this will likely further the discussion. And PLEASE remember, it’s just that: a discussion.)
By J.G. Marking
Special to Daily Thunder
With the team’s horrible 3-8 start, with the recent firing of Byron Scott done BEHIND Chris Paul’s back, only the Hornets superstar player and the best point guard in the world and the face of their franchise, and with the Thunder holding a veritable smorgasbord of trading chips, draft picks and salary cap space to play with, one can’t help but ask the question that we’re all honestly wondering:
Can Chris Paul ever be traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder?
Now let me preface this by saying it would absolutely kill me to lose the players it would take to make this deal happen (you’re still my boy, Westbrook!). But when you have the chance to take a player that would instantly make everyone on your team two times better at playing basketball than they are now, a player who absolutely loves your small-market community (even still owns a home in the Oklahoma City metro) and is, without question, an annual MVP candidate and is STILL ONLY 24 YEARS OLD (turns 25 in May of 2010), don’t you have to pull the trigger and pull it hard?”
But the question remains… could he ever be conceivably traded to the Thunder? And all I’ll leave you with before the jump is this: Yes.
Chris Paul could absolutely be traded to the Thunder but it would take four teams (not unheard of), a very crafty GM and the use of some very clutch trade exceptions and financial considerations to get it done. But you know what; it’s not that crazy…in fact, it actually makes a lot of sense for all the parties involved.
The trade would require the Thunder, the Hornets, the Grizzlies and the Trailblazers to all be involved because of Chris Paul’s status as a Base Year Compensation player, which is a really fancy way of saying that even though Chris Paul’s salary is $13.5 million dollars, his outgoing trade value is counted as $6,760,250 because of the circumstances surrounding his contract extension.
But let me preface the following list of trade maneuvers with this: more difficult trades have been made than this one and hardly any of them made this much sense or benefited the involved parties as much.
1) Thunder send Russell Westbrook ($3.7 million + Johan Petro’s $1.9 million dollar trade exception) and Nenad Krstic ($5.1 million) to the Hornets with the Thunder’s first round 2010 draft pick and the Phoenix Suns first round 2010 pick. Yes, it’s a lot to give up, but please re-read that second paragraph to remind yourself of what they’d be giving all that up to get, because the Thunder is going to have to give up even more.
2) Thunder send Kyle Weaver ($870.9K) to the Grizzlies with the Thunder’s 2011 second round pick (or an equivalent pick down the road). Since Weaver is not even suiting up lately, this isn’t a huge loss to the Thunder but I’ve always liked Weaver so this one hurts, too. The 2011 second round pick does not hurt in any way since the Thunder’s roster already overfloweth.
3) Thunder send Shaun Livingston ($959.1K) and the Hornets send guard Marcus Thornton ($457.5K) to the Portland TrailBlazers along with the Hornets’ second round pick in the 2010 draft (or some other equivalent pick down the road).
4) Hornets send Chris Paul ($13.5 million) to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Check it. Double-check it. Every number adds up. All the “t’s” are crossed and I’ve dotted all of the…lower case “j’s.”
But here’s what’s even more interesting…those really are completely plausible trades for all parties involved.
* The Thunder get the best point guard in the game with only losing one of their cornerstone players for the future, but are replacing him with, again, the best point guard in the game. The Thunder’s loss of those two first round picks may seem rough initially, but with such a loaded roster already (those this trade would trim the fat a bit, don’t get me wrong) the Thunder would not have to pay the likely $3-4 million dollars for their pick and the $1-2 million dollars for the Suns apparent first round pick. Oh yeah, they lose Krstic but replace him with Thomas and Ibaka, who might both instantly get All-Star consideration after CP3 helps them achieve career totals in points in his first game.
And oh yeah, one more tiny thing I forgot to mention…the Thunder would still be roughly $11-12 million dollars (or more) under the cap for the 2010 Free Agent class if everything works as it should. Yes, you read that correctly.
* The Hornets lose their superstar and the face of their franchise, the man who really tried to personally revitalize NOLA after one of our country’s greatest natural disasters…and there’s just no value you can reasonably apply to that. But the Hornets do get $6 million dollars off their payroll, sliding them under the luxury tax for next season; the Hornets also pick up two first round picks in a STACKED draft class to rebuild with and pick up a very serviceable big man who already has an established chemistry with the best part of this trade for the Hornets: They pick up one of the league’s most unique and exciting point guard prospects in Russell Westbrook.
* The Grizzlies receive Kyle Weaver, an extremely versatile and high character/team oriented guard (something the team desperately needs) who can provide a defensive and PASSING geared spark for them off the bench, not to mention a nice cheap second round pick. Plus, the Grizzlies rent their cap space to anyone and everyone so they wouldn’t even really have to get a lot in return to do it.
* The Trailblazers receive a nice second round pick as well, not to mention the cap space they’d love to get back after all their moves and extensions this summer/season with the expiring contract of Shaun Livingston, if they didn’t want to keep him around (most likely he’d be immediately cut, as would Marcus Thornton since his salary would be beyond manageable to eat at $457.5K a year, if Portland didn’t want a nice blue collar guard on their rather large roster). Plus, the Blazers would then have a “Presti, you owe us a nice favor” chip against their future and even current division rival, which is just always nice to have in your back pocket down the road (hmmm, don’t know if I care for that reality, but for CP3, I’m fine with it).
So there you have it. It’s possible. Not only is it possible, but it’s kind-of, almost, if you’re a fan of the Thunder and you’re sort-of but not really kidding yourself, a trade that makes sense for everyone involved to the point that I’m wondering if Presti hasn’t already toyed with the notion or not.
So, my fellow readers, would you do it?
(You’re still….my…boy….RW)
@Joe
Good job clearing up the Base Year Compensaation stuff…well, as good as it can be cleared up.
Steve H, did that make sense to you? The issue that the Thunder’s cap hit would be twice what they’d have to send out, hence why the contract’s don’t matchup like a normal trade?
@Vega
I would have LOVED to have Beaubois. I was actually really, really excited when the Thunder “drafted” him.
@B-RY
Did Traber read this thread…? And yes, Joe (and myself, among others) we’re very, very high on Blair, regardless of his absorbed ACL’s. After all, it’s a two year, fairly cheap contract…I think the reward overcomes the risk, especially if he pans out and can play 10 years.
@J.G.
Traber’s deal was Westbrook, Etan Thomas and a first round pick for CP3.
I laughed.
@Royce
Haha, the wide knowledge and mastery of the NBA salary cap restrictions and trade figures equaling out at work right there.
Should we send him a link to the NBA Trade Machine?
If my trade scenario is absurd and impossible…
CP3 is arguably the most productive player in the NBA; he is by many metrics (Wins Produced, PER leader this season). If I’m laughing at Westbrook, Thomas, and a 1st for Chris Paul, then I’m the New Orleans Hornets. That’s definitely way too little for Chris Paul..
CBA restrictions notwithstanding.
i like the trade theoretically.
but there are some things that we should all be patient and understanding about.
RWO is a point guard who is still learning on the fly(he hardly played pg in ucla) and is in his 2nd nba season. let’s give him some time before to prove himself.
durant,green and rwo and harden too has bonded well and realize their roles.they mesh well and in time their oncourt play would prove it.
next year’s draft we need a big man center thus completing the team. to get that center we might have to trade up making our 2 1st round picks valuable as well as weaver.
and last CP3 is the face of hornets and lord knows that city needs a figure like him.so i want him to remain loyal to that organization and continue doing the good works in that community.
peace.
@justin
Definitely, you could realistically argue that if NOLA’s luxury tax issues and self-inflicted implosion of bad contracts and suspicious management weren’t extenuating factors in any potential trade scenarios, there may not be enough players for any one team to string together to equal out a Chris Paul trade (save the Lakers and Cavs, perhaps).
That being said though…knowing his value and production, wouldn’t this be the hardest decision for Presti and Co. to make? Even though we’re talking about one of (if not THE) NBA’s most productive player.
I think the chance that NO trades Paul this season is very low and probably under 25% period but if they do I’d assume they try to make it the best deal in return that any team has gotten for any player since the first Shaq trade or even more.
P.S. My surface reaction is that this upcoming draft is weak, maybe very weak.
If Chris Paul is traded then Peja Stojakovic and possibly James Posey are going with him because, although New Orleans would be hard pressed to get equal talent in return, they could definitely get close to equal value by acquiring salary cap relief.
The question then becomes, is Chris Paul and ~$20 million of dead salary worth giving up Russell Westbrook, a draft pick (or more), and Etan Thomas? Such a deal doesn’t work in reality, but it’s the kind of relief and talent New Orleans would expect in return for CP3.
The first Shaq trade: Traded by the Los Angeles Lakers to the Miami Heat for Caron Butler, Brian Grant, Lamar Odom, a 2006 1st round draft pick (Jordan Farmar) and a 2007 2nd round draft pick (Renaldas Seibutis).
That boils down to 2 proven top fairly young players, big and worthless cap filler and a future first rounder.
I assume Paul would fetch some combo of 2 proven top fairly young players and draft pick(s) or maybe one great player and multiple draft picks. One of the guys probably would have to be PER20+. Per 15-17 for the key piece like Westbrook in this proposal probably isn’t going to be the very best deal offered. I assume if they offer Paul at least 15-20 teams offer serious bids.
If I was NO I’d asked for Bynum from LA, Josh Smith + other from Atlanta, Gasol and Mayo from Memphis, Amare from Phoenix, Kaman and Eric Gordon from the Clips and ignore almost everybody else who will be offered.
LA probably says no.
Phoenix would say yes and move Nash to SG.
I’d think the Clip would say yes.
Memphis would say YES! but Paul would probably say no.
Atlanta probably says no this year but might change that tune.
That’s a king’s ransom, but I’d pull the trigger. The Paul, Harden, Durant, Green core is just too unreal and would instantly contend in the West.
If you had to beat something like Amare or Kaman and Eric Gordon- and you wait for BYC to expire- it probably (in my opinion) would have to be
Westbrook
and at least two of
Green or Harden, draft picks or recent picks (i.e. Mullens and / or Ibaka)
and one of Collison or Krstic.
The middle part would be the tough negotiating area where the teams might or might not eventaully agree on what two it would have to be.
J.G.s’s original proposal was 4 main pieces- Westbrook, Krstic along with the Thunder’s first round 2010 draft pick (in the 10 range?) and the Phoenix Suns first round 2010 pick 20-25?).
Mine would be of that level or more.
If the deal breaker was including Green or Harden I’d do it.
But it is a real longshot.
If they insist on Peja being in the deal you need more filler of course and it gets less advantageous.
Shinn is a well-known pain to negotiate with. With Bower on shaky ground I assume he calls the shot, unless and until they get someone else in there with real authority. (Jerry West?)
If they did have a serious chance at Paul you’d need to think about how if at all you’d change the way Durant is used. Do you make him more of a 3 point shooter? Do you put him more in the post? Would they actually help each other?
Presti so far doesn’t seem to be that strongly focused on superstars. He seem to be more of an ensemble guy.
If you went Paul-Durant that is making a shift to a superstar model.
Despite the picture and logic when I first started reading this article for some reason I dwelled on “This was written Friday, shortly after the Byron Scott firing.”
I don’t think Scott will get future consideration for coach in OKC or should. Not the right coach for the situation or Presti.
And he might be surprised how tough getting the next job will be. Unless he is already the future Lakers coach. I assume he thinks he is.
If not that, I guess he might eventually be the next Bobcats, Clips, Kings or Knicks coach.
If Larry Brown totally quits on DJ Augustin (he has at least temporarily) I’d go for him, even if you had to involve a third team to get what they want or a draft pick.
he looked like a solid part of the rotation . . . long arms, good defender – can score . . .
@kev
Good to hear. The game I saw, he seemed to be standing around alone in space like he didn’t know who to guard. I, too, was one of the ones happy to see we drafted him initially.
@Crow
This upcoming draft will be one of the deepest and most talented drafts in NBA history, even if only half of the expected studs turn out to be anything at all in the league. That’s how good this draft is.
@J.G.
That is why the Suns must fail. We really need two lotto picks!!!
@DizzyDai
I’m with you…but that is looking less and less likely with the way Gentry (and Nash, especially) has that team playing right now.
barring injury to Nash or Amare – they are a lock for the playoffs – realistically, they will be a top three seed in the playoffs . . .
players see the biggest jump by their 3rd year but usually keep improving up until they are 27 or so. Thats their physical prime. The RW experiment will probably continue until the end of his rookie deal, if he doesnt work out we will probably do a sign and trade, but based on his play this year so far and the vast improvement he made after last year in the offseason, i think we will keep him at PG. The more experience he gets the less he will make bad decisions.
I don’t sense this is anywhere near a great draft J.G. but I’ll admit to not following the college game much firsthand and relying on writeups. stats and my own sense compared to past drafts. So while I won’t argue it in detail or claim above average knowledge I am not going to agree it is strong either.
J.G. who do you like for the Thunder who might be around where they are likely to pick (8-15 and 20-25)?
I hope DSMok1 will consider sharing updates of his college ratings and hie own targets for the Thunder.
@Crow
I know you asked J.G. who he liked, but I will chime in with my answer. Xavier Henry is going to be a very good nba player. I know we are stacked at the sg spot but this kid is lights out from the moment he hits the parking lot. I had the pleasure of watching him play through high school, and he is a very solid player on both ends.
Warren… Coach B is helps put out a very good product at The Original (my alma). Unfortunately I haven’t gotten to see a game since ’03, but I can agree on that kid. Regardless of where he went to school, he’s gonna be legit!
@Mully Mulls
I work for the district and also went to school there way back in the day, so I still watch the team. I graduated with Coach B’s oldest son TJ.
Thanks for the tip Warren I’ll check into him more.
If Harden were to become a combo guard (part SG, part backup PG) there might still be room for a SG who is bigger and a big 3 point shooter.
Currently shown as reasonably likely to be available with the Suns pick but of course that could change a lot up or down as the season progresses.
I guess NBAdraft.net likes him a lot more right than draftexpress. I can’t see them using the top pick on a SG but than again the team 3 point deficiency has to get fixed sometime, somewhere to become elite in my mind. You need wing shooters off the bench at least.
@Warren
That’s cool… I graduated with one his sons as well; Jacob. He went on to the Air Force Academy on scholarship and I went the enlisted route. Weird how things look when you write them down on paper. On another note, and staying in the Sooner State, how does Kyle Hardrick look? I know Xavier stole some of the thunder from him.
@Crow
I agree with you about using the our top pick 2 years in a row for a sg. I just like his game and keep telling myself it would work.
He plays on espn tonight at 9pm. After the Thunder game you can watch him play live.
@Crow
Whoa, sorry, forgot to check this thread.
Crow, I like (besides John Wall, obviously) quite a few players in this draft, but specifically for the Thunder, Solomon Alabi really, really intrigues me. He will probably go from 8-15 and is farther along and a much better center prospect to me than Hasheem Thabeet ever was. Obviously Cole Aldrich is on the radar as well, but he will probably go a few picks too high for the Thunder to get at 8 or beyond and I’m not sure how I really feel about him right now. I’ll have to keep an eye on Alabi to see if he continues to develop, but if he does, then he would DEFINITELY be on my short list for the Thunder to draft with their first pick.
The second pick is tricky because it really depends upon who the Thunder have on their roster, who pans out on their roster this year and who’s sitting there from 15-25, but I’m going to take a WAY too early stab and say that I’d love to grab a Tyshawn Taylor, the 6’3 PG from Kansas if he were available still in that range. He honestly reminds me of RW (almost uncanny in the similarities in their games) and because of their similar skill-sets and strengths, the offense would not miss a beat with him as a backup PG (if he declares).
@Mully Mulls
That cool. Jacob is/was a good kid. I have not been around enough this year to here anything about Kyle. I will find out though.
J.G., Tyshawn Taylor looked good to me too.
Alabi seems worth tracking. Keep us up to date.