Getting trendy
Why this picture? I don't know, I just kind of thought it was funny.
We’re 17 games in, which means roughly 20 percent of the NBA season is put away, which means some trends are starting to come to the surface. You know, like what’s working in wins versus losses. Those type of things.
Obviously, in wins, you play better. Everybody knows that. It’s why you won. You shot better or rebounded better or played better defense or your players played better. It’s no revelation that in losses your numbers go down and your best players probably didn’t play as well. Again, it’s why you lost.
But at the same time, it’s somewhat key to determine WHAT those things are you’re not doing as well. Because common sense says, correct those issues that are consistently rearing their heads in losses and you know, they turn to wins.
So here are a few developing themes:
In wins, Oklahoma City averages almost four assists more per game. The Thunder dish out almost 21 a game in Ws, and just 16.1 in losses. That’s most punctuated by Russell Westbrook who averages 7.9 helpers in wins and just five a game in losses. But here’s what that says to me: It’s not that Russ is necessarily worse in losses (though in some circumstances he has been), but more that he’s had to shoulder the load more because his teammates either weren’t knocking down shots or playing well. He’s averaged 16.6 points per game in Ws and 17.3 in Ls. Russ has had to pick up the scoring in some losses because things weren’t working (the first Houston game really sticks out in which Westbrook had 33).
Kevin Durant scores four fewer points a game in losses, Jeff Green four fewer and Nenad Krstic a full five fewer. That could be a combination of Westbrook not creating and setting up as well, or just that they aren’t knocking down their usual shots. Add those points they have in wins and Westbrook is averaging seven or eight assists a game in losses too. That’s the thing about assists – it’s a two part thing. It’s easy for people to see Westbrook’s numbers, but at the same time, if he makes a great drive and frees Krstic up for an open 20-footer and Krispy clangs it, whose fault is that?
In losses, turnovers are up by a three a game. This was an issue last year as well. Naturally when you’re losing you start forcing things and start trying harder to make plays. It’s desperation. Westbrook turns it over 3.1 times in wins and 4.4 in losses. Durant goes from 2.8 to 4.0. Thabo even goes up a full turnover more. Again, it’s kind of a natural tendency for any team, but taking care of the ball was an issue last year and it’s something the Thunder has done much, much better with this year, highlighted by just 11 turnovers against Milwaukee.
Accentuated by last night’s loss, 3-point shooting is far different in wins versus losses. In wins, OKC hits six Thunder moneyballs (copyright: Matt Pinto) and shoots 40 percent from deep. In losses, that goes to four treys and just 22.7 percent. The Thunder takes nearly three more a game in losses and again, that’s similar to turnovers. You’re desperate for points so you start chucking like George Costanza. Durant goes from 32 percent to 17. Green 33 to 23. Sefolosha 50 to 11 (!). Westbrook 50 to 15. It’s clearly an issue.
Along the same lines, OKC is eight percent lower from the field in losses. That pretty much explains the lower numbers for Durant, Green and Krstic, three of OKC’s top jumpshooters. Durant drops eight percent. Green almost nine. Krstic an astounding 20 percent. Westbrook holds true basically shooting the same percentage.
Nothing all that revolutionary, but I love looking at the splits that make one game different from another. What’s different for the team home from away? In Sunday games or Monday games? In games on three days rest versus two days? Sometimes it’s coincidence. Sometimes it’s a trend. It’s early in the season and some of these things can tighten up or change a bit. But as we watch a team that’s slowly turning into a potential playoff contender, it’s key to understand what’s working and what’s not. Then correct it. That’s why we (and by “we” I mean “Clay Bennett) pay Scott Brooks the medium sized bucks.
@Steve H
gortats rebounding numbers this season, but his career average is about the same, last year he did better 4.5 per 12 mins, which is about double krstic, but as this year proves it didnt scale when his minutes went up. I just think he is a risk, unproven player with a high salary, especially with mullens averaging 13.5 RPG in the d-league and ibaka on the roster, we may not need a long term solution and a 2 yera deal for camby might be enough until they develop
@f5alcon
It’s clear to me that our #1 need right now (besides a backup PG, due to injury) is a reliable inside scorer. Look how much better the Lakers are when Gasol returned–it takes a TON of pressure off of every player on the floor when they have to respect your inside offensive game.
Hence, Marc Gasol. He’s young, cheap, and we have the assets to make a trade happen, especially with Memphis.
@justin
We all knew Kaman can do all that, the question mark on him was whether he can stay healthy. so before he plays65+ game this season, I will believe in Presti.
@KingGondo
yeah, marc gasol would be good, but it would cost us maybe weaver+dj white and draft picks
Marc Gasol would cost at least Jeff Green, probably Jeff Green and a pick. Scrubs like Weaver / White and low lotto picks won’t do it.
yeah not worth it with the number of FA centers next summer
I disagree, I’d ship Jeff Green and our first round pick to Memphis for Marc Gasol in a second. Good young center > good young forward. Gasol is playing like a top five center. It’s a moot point anyway because he’s not going to be traded.
@f5alcon
20 games is a small enough sample size that I still prefer his #s from last season as a predictor. If he could pull down 8+ boards and 1+ blks in 24 minutes, I would be a happy fan. I think his 5 year contract averages out to around 6.5 mill per- which is actually cheap for that level of production from a big not still under his rookie contract. If I fixate of Gortat, it is only because he could/should be gettable with the resources we have at a reasonable price. Delighted to see Mullens doing good in the D-league, but have to take it with a grain of salt- though like you say, I will be habby with an interim fix at this point like Camby or Haywood until we can fully develop a project like Mullens (or be in position to grab a free agent in another year or two).
@Steve H
Marcin Gortat is an overpaid backup, I don’t understand the fascination some of the fans here had with him in the offseason. I mean, he gets a five year deal after playing 12 minutes a game, mostly in garbage time on a great team? I don’t get it. He’s starting to get meaningful minutes now and we’re seeing what this guy is really capable of, which is not much. Definitely not starting material on a good team.
@justin
Gortat’s minutes =! garbage time. Would you call Etan Thomas’ or Nick Collison’s minutes garbage time (before the injuries)? The consensus among many fans/scouts/analysts/statheads is that Gortat is a league-average starting center stuck on a team with Superman, which is a pretty good deal for the MLE. His rate stats have taken a hit but I’ll wait till we have a much larger sample size before I jump to any conclusions.
@Sammy
I definitely concur with you re: “I’ll wait till we have a much larger sample size before I jump to any conclusions.”. I’d like to know which stat heads suggested that Marcin Gortat is a league average starting center based on under 1200 minutes of NBA basketball. I don’t have the time to research this right now, but I’m sure many of Marcin Gortat’s minutes last year in ‘uncompetitive’ situations. Even if they didn’t, using 1200 minutes as a basis to award a long term contract befitting a starting center seems foolhardy.
I’d like to see something more from Marcin Gortat than erratic bench play before claiming him starting center material for any team.
@f5alcon
@justin
@Sammy
This is my last Gortat related comment for awhile I swear. As Sammy and Mr. Falcon have noted, Gortat’s rebounding numbers did not increase porportionately to is increased minutes this season (from 12 to 16 on average so far). I think that many of those additional minutes averaged this season came at the PF position while Lewis was suspended, and don’t necessarily reflect a dip in the Hammer’s performance. Rodman in his prime would have seen his rebounding numbers drop if he had played alongside big Dwight. Just sayin.
lol its fine i dont mind discussing gortat, yes more of his minutes are at PF this year, but his RPG dropped from 4.5 to 4, and howards mins are 2 less per game, meaning gortat played 2 more minutes at Center this year and 2 more at PF, his RPG should have be up slightly. His PER is 14 compared to krstics 13.1, so he isnt a real upgrade from krstic, its not that i dont like gortat, i just dont want to spend so much money on him, when there are better options