Peace, Love and Thunderstanding: Predictions
(Want to know the top five scariest places in Oklahoma? Royce lays them out over at The Lost Ogle.)
By the time this article runs, the Thunder will have played their first game, and, Gary England willing, be 1-0 after stomping the Kings. That’s going to happen. If it doesn’t, you probably shouldn’t pay any attention to my predictions for the rest of the season.
Key to the Season: Jeff Green
Sure, Kevin Durant is the team’s best player, and James Harden is the rookie ingenue that is supposed to fill the holes the team had last year. No one is going to dispute that. The guy who will have the biggest influence on how this season turns out for the Thunder, though, is the glue guy–Jeff Green.
For the Thunder to reach the unfair expectations being heaped onto them by much of the national media, Jeff Green is the guy who has to get to that next level. When he was drafted, the thought was that he would be as Scottie Pippen was to Michael Jordan for Kevin Durant. And, honestly, I think he can fill that role. For now, though, I’d just like to see him strive to be like David West. If he can consistently bring his A-game, improve his rebounding, and silence the detractors that say he is too small to play power forward (much like West dealt with before the Hornets arrived in OKC), the Thunder will easily improve on their win total from last season, and with luck challenge for a playoff spot.
Even if he does not, I think Green will do a lot for the team fresh off being named a team captain. While I don’t think I’ve seen this mentioned anywhere, it was Green who I saw motivating his teammates this Summer, by publicly calling on them to get to the gym (via Twitter). It might have just been that he didn’t understand you could send messages directly to people with Twitter accounts, but I prefer to look at it as him cracking the whip.
When will James Harden become the starting SG: Not this year
This might be my boldest prediction. Taken third overall, Harden has to be expected to be an immediate difference maker. Otherwise, you would have to think Presti would have gone with the Spanish sensation, Ricky Rubio, even if the team would have to wait a couple of years to bring him over to the U.S. (which is debatable). The expectation is that Harden will fill the hole at shooting guard and be a better shooter and better defender than we saw at Arizona State.
The thing is, people forget about how much of an impact Thabo Sefolosha made for the Thunder last season. I know I did. That is, until I saw a couple of pre season games and remembered just what great defense he brings to the floor, and it appears he might have improved his shooting stroke. Meanwhile, watching James Harden, I saw exactly what I expected to see from a rookie. He was streaky shooting the ball, a little overwhelmed handling the ball, and disappeared much of the time he was on the floor even though I was specifically keeping an eye on him.
Plus, if you look at good teams, most of them tend to have a guy like Thabo in the starting line up. For instance, Denver last season had a super talented offensive weapon in J.R. Smith, but they started Dahntay Jones who from a stat sheet standpoint doesn’t make near the impact. And the Spurs, have chosen to bring their second best player, Manu Ginobili, off the bench in favor of keeping Bruce Bowen (before his defensive skill deteriorated) in the starting five.
I look for Sefolosha to continue as the Thunder starting two guard indefinitely.
Kevin Durant’s scoring average: 25.3
How did I come up with that number? It’s precisely the number of points he averaged last season. And if he has that number, I would still chalk it up as a better season for the budding superstar.
As the team grows around him, Durant is not going to be counted on to carry the whole scoring load. And for us fans, that’s the way we want it. Watching him put up gaudy numbers because his teammates defer to him entirely and let him jack as many shots as Kobe in the post-Shaq/pre-Pau era, we’ll be watching a team much like the Iverson-led 76ers. In essence, a team going nowhere.
Thing I’m going to complain about most this year: Nick Collison’s mustache (or lack-thereof)
You cannot tease me that you are going to grow a handle bar mustache with the inner half shaved and then not do it. I refuse to let this go silently. I’m picturing a reverse Hitler mustache, or else Rollie Fingers’ mustache if he only grew it from the part of the lip near the corner of the mouth. Either way, endless entertainment for me, a guy who loves Landry Jones’ stache even though I hate Sooner football.
If Collison ever follows through, it will synch the University of Kansas as the place for weird hair. Between the “Absolute Value Stache” (as Collison coined the facial hair he hasn’t grown), Drew Gooden’s skullet, and everything Scot Pollard has done with his hair, every rebellious teenage giant with elite basketball skills will be wanting to head to Lawrence.
Other thing I’ll be complaing about too much: Russell Westbrook’s decision making
Looking at the box scores of the first few pre season matchups I was optimistic that Westbrook’s game was developing as the anti-Rubio crowd suggested. His turnover numbers were much smaller and assist numbers much higher than I had come to expect. Then, I actually watched the Miami game and was left with the same tidal wave of conflicting emotions while watching him run the team.
The most upset I got was at the end of the game. Holding onto a three point lead, Westbrook rebounded a Heat miss with 22 seconds to go. With the shot clock turned off, he went coast to coast with the ball and fired up a wild lay up attempt that came nowhere close to the rim. Luckily, Etan Thomas bailed him out by grabbing the offensive rebound and getting fouled. But, the fact that Westbrook acted like it was a 2-for-1 situation rather than a victory-formation point of the game suggests to me that his basketball IQ still leaves a lot to be desired.
First Player to be Traded: Conditional second-round pick
The Thunder still have around $10MM in cap space. As the season progresses and the economy continues ravaging team owners, there will be a lot of teams begging Presti to help relieve them of salary. I suspect Sam Presti will sit on his hands patiently waiting for a team with high expectations (and high salary commitments) fall out of the playoff hunt and give the Thunder a talented player for nothing.
The New Robert Swift: B.J. Mullens
I saw this guy at P.F. Chang’s last Friday while he was waiting for a table. It’s probably more than I’ll see of him at any games this year. But, for those who are wondering, his eyebrows were immaculately manicured.
Fan Favorite: Serge Ibaka
<Bad pun alert> This guy is going to bring a Serge of energy every time he gets on the floor. </Bad pun alert>
What I’ll be doing tonight: Watching FC Barcelona on ESPN360
I would suggest everyone else do the same. Looking at the team roster, they appear to be the Yankees of Spanish basketball. I’d say Lakers, but I’m guessing the Spanish League doesn’t have salary caps or no way FC Barcelona assembles this much talent. Their roster is a virtual who’s who of international talent not currently in the NBA.
They start Fran Vazquez, who shunned the Magic after being drafted #11, at center. Their power forward is former Michigan State star Erazem Lorbek (backed up by a former NBA player Boniface N’Dong), and Pete Mickael who used to star for Cincinnati finishes out the front line. Their off guard is Spanish superstar and former Grizzlie Juan Carlos Navarro (who bailed after one season in Memphis because they traded Pau Gasol). Then, at point guard is the guy we could have drafted, Ricky Rubio.
I would suggest everyone with access to ESPN360 check these guys out. Then, cry yourself to sleep that we won’t have Rubio to watch in person in Oklahoma City.
Team wins for the season: 32
Sure, 32 wins doesn’t sound like a lot, but a nine game improvement is massive in professional basketball. For the Thunder, that would be a 39% more wins than last year. While I would love for The Columnist Who Shall Not Be Named to be correct and for the team to be challenging for a the eighth seed and flirting with a .500 record…I’m a realist. If the team can post more than thirty wins and be in the game during the fourth quarter night in and night out, that will be enough improvement to make me happy.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Actually what I’m saying is we need a traditional center, not a traditional PF. And I realize that the scheme is meant to more effectively use guys, but at the same time it limits things we want to do, like get points in transition ourselves. It’s safer on the defensive end, but at the cost of offense (and that still is only if our guys get the rebound).
I’m saying one of Green or Krstic needs to be changed, long term. Both bring similar skillsets, similar weaknesses, and ultimately lead to a compounding of frontcourt issues. I want to keep Green, but we need a different kind of center for it to work. Even David West needed Tyson Chandler in order to flourish.
David West really isn’t a good rebounder. West’s rebounding prowess (or lack of) shouldn’t be Green’s benchmark by any means. He should and hopefully will be much better in the future. But, since both of them play away from the basket so much, I’m not sure either of them will ever be “eye opening” rebounders.
I agree with you. Jeff Green is the x-factor for this year. But at the same time, Russell Westbrook has to be consistent as well, as he is playing the most important position on the court. He is the floor general, but if he plays like he did against the Kings, then it’s all good!
I think if he keeps playing like this, Westbrook will add the most individual wins to the team, but looking to the future and playoffs, Jeff Green has the most impact on our long term success. Not everyone thought Westbrook would be able to do what he’s doing so soon, but everyone knew he’d be a great player. Green is good, solid, and comfortable in his role. But, you don’t win without a big man, and Green’s the best we got, even if his game isn’t exactly the best fit for our current lineup at the moment.
How about Ty Lawson in his rookie debut off the bench: 17 points, 6 assists 1 turn and 4 boards on 7/13 shooting. I just knew he was going to be good. I had him in the lottery on our mock draft.
Royce, I have always respected your opinions to this point…but you need to start using some logic….a couple of days ago you give the 20 most important reason to watch this season and JG, one of the most underrated basketball players in the world is ranked like 20 something…but now he is the key to the season….anybody who knows anything about basketball would have told you that he has been the most important player on the team for many many years… not the best but second best and most important…yes im sorry but green is incredible, better than westy and he deserves the attention he is finally NOT gettong but should be
@Anil
Clark wrote this post, not Royce.
I call bs on standing reach analogy for green. His problem in the past has had more to do with strength than anything. Also green is much more athletic than David west. West also was a 4 yr player at Xavier and it still took him a few yrs to become a solid NBA player. Comparing Green to West at the same age is pointless. Green improved a ton from his first to second yr and looks to have done the same from his 2nd to 3rd. He is the long term answer at the 4.
I’m very late to this one, but here are my thoughts.
Green may not be ideal for the 4, but the biggest concern is at the 5. Green’s size is adequate, but his ability to shoot and take bigger players off the dribble creates mismatches. I see his rebounding and blocking improving and I’m not too overly concerned with upgrading that spot.
I’m sick of everyone crying over Rubio. He is not even playing in the NBA. Do you really think things would be different if we drafted him? Westbrook is becoming a borderline allstar point guard, so lets be happy with that. Harden will be a great perimeter scorer and some that can slash inside, so he is not a wasted pick. Rubio = Drama, to me that is a waste of a pick.
We need an athletic 5 in the middle. Ibaka is athletic enough to be that but has to learn the position still. Krstic is an ideal backup at the 5 IMO because even though he’s not great defensively he can provide a nice offensive spark with the second unit. We need a Tyson Chandler type in the middle that can protect the rim.
Keep an eye on Brendan Haywood this year. He’s going to get a lot more minutes and with the free agent class of 2010 he might slip under the radar. He turns 30 this year but probably has a few productive years in him considering how sparingly Eddie Jordan played him..
@Anil
Yeah, I didn’t write this. And also, it was just 20 reasons. It wasn’t a ranked list.
@Royce
Don’t skirt your responsibility, Royce. Apologize to the man, it’s your job to moderate Clark’s opinions.
@KingGondo
You’re right. I dropped the ball here.
@Royce
Be sure to tell me what to think by Wednesday morning. I don’t like to wait until the last minute to write.
@Clark Matthews
Anil already told you what you need to do Clark. You need to use some logic. And also be Royce.
PROTIP: Should you find yourself lacking in writing ability, try ending every sentence with an ellipsis. Not only does it kick grammar’s ass, but it doesn’t confuse your readers in the least.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
You are absolutely right… I feel like Hemingway here… this is amazing… I am such a good writer now!…
@justin
Sorry, got back a little late to this one but just wanted to say that I’m with you on his standing reach being about 2 inches shorter than the “ideal” PF length…but that’s exactly why I listed his no step vertical (the one most likely to be relevant when leaping for rebounds and contesting shots).
And you said it yourself, “a player is expected to use his length and LEAPING ABILITY to get rebounds, contest shots, and defend near the basket.” Now of course I added the emphasis via capitlization, but Green’s vertical leaping ability more than makes up for his lack of a standing reach.
So…I’m with you if we’re talking about standing reach, but that is just one of MANY factors to consider about rebounding and blocking/altering shots in the post.