Chew on this
October 31st, 2009
Some really interesting stats to chew on after just a few games:
- The Thunder are third in the league in points allowed per game (86) and third in defensive rating (95.2 pts/100 possessions).
- The Thunder are 10th in the league in FG% at 47.4% and 6th in 3fg% at 40%.
- 10th in assists.
- 12th in blocks.
- 20th in turnovers-we were numero uno last year.
- 3rd in FG% allowed at 38.9%
- 5th in 3FG% allowed at 24.2%
- 8th slowest team in the league. Last season we were the 7th fastest. Keep an eye on this this season.
- We are top half of the league offensively in 3 out of the “four factors”, the one we are missing on is offensive rebounds. Curiously offensive rebounding was one of our strengths last year.
- We are top half in 3 out of 4 defensive four factors, the outlier being getting to the line and hitting the freebies (fta/ftm).
- Kevin Durant is tied for 5th in the league in field goal attempts at 43.
- Thabo is tied for second in the league in 3 point FG% at 75% (3/4 on the season).
- Westbrook is fifth in the league in assists with 23 in two games. The four above him are Rondo, Nash, Baron Davis and Lebron. He’s also third in the league in Assists/game and Assists %.
- Here’s a weird one: Earl Watson is third in the league in effective Field Goal percent (.864) and second in True shooting percent (.862).
- Etan Thomas is 4th in the league in block percent (the percentage of the opponent’s shots that he blocked while he was on the court) with 8.1%.
- Kevin Durant is third in minutes played per game at 42.5.
None of this means anything at all after just two games. It’s just a conversation starter until Portland comes to town. Enjoy!
I dont know why Brooks insists on playing Drant 40+ minutes. I don’t think that’s healthy for ANY NBA player when you consider they have to play 82 games.
@Kev
I bet you see that change after this first stretch of tough games. The toughest part of our entire schedule is right now. It seems like he is treating like it is. If we really are in playoff contention at the end of the season then this games will mean a lot.
Green almost always subs in for Durant. There is not that much of a dropoff with Green at the three. That also gives us two legit bigs in the game as well. That’s a good defensive unit (assuming Thabo is in). He should ride that lineup for an extra 2-3 minutes a game, Getting Durant to about 39 minutes. That will help in the long run.
How many times did RW0 have back to back 10+ assist games last year?
Um, Durant with 12 rebounds again. I guess we have seven PFs now.You know Nelson would do it!
@Brew He would. He’d play KD at Center probably.
someone already mentioned it – once . . .
but the WAY RW is doing it is impressive – he is CONSTANTLY looking for people this year – his athleticism allows him to get in the lane often, and he draws people because they are used to him jacking up bricks. What hasn’t been talked about much is Krstic’s deft ability to slide ever so slightly to an open crease to receive RW’s pass. Just great basketball on the offensive end.
How could you not like Thabo’s three late to put us up nine (or ten). Great stuff!!!!!!!
Why is Ollie getting run over Livingston? Is his knee not there?
Shaun Livingston just isn’t a good enough point guard to be successful without the athleticism. There are probably concerns on defense with him as well, guarding opposing point guards.
Are you rating offensive rebounding by percentage or what? I wouldn’t be surprised if there are fewer offensive rebounds since there are fewer opportunites due to the higher team FG% (44% last season). If you’re going by percentage then yeah, that’s strange.
The key stats there are turnovers and FG%, both of which were horrible last year. Comes down to decision making and executing on offense. It’s definitely looked better so far for the most part.
Also, even though his shot isn’t falling, Kevin Durant only has one turnover in two games. This only happened four times last season..
This early in the season I would think that all the coaches want to get out of the bench players is some guys who are going to play solid D to hold a lead and not turn it over a bunch while the coaches figure out which guys deserve to get into the rotation a little at a time. Ollie is in there to do just that. When they first signed him that was the positive spin everyone was putting on him (good example for Westbrook, good defender, and doesn’t cough the ball up) I have a feeling that we will see Livingston getting some game action soon, meanwhile Ollie will just try not to screw things up too much.
@Kev
No, I was seriously asking, did it even happen last year?
I think it happened once last year . . .
It happened once last year, Russell Westbrook had 11 assists in two games in April.
@justin
Yes, I am talking about offensive rebounding percentage.
ORB% this year:.218 (23rd)
ORB% last year:.286 (4th)
Good point however. There are undoubtedly less opportunities overall if the shots go in at a higher clip, but, we are also playing slower, so there are fewer shots going up as well. After two games we are only averaging 76 field goal attempts/game this year; last year with the faster pace we averaged 82 field goals/game.
The top two lineups for the Thunder after two games:
Durant, Collison, Harden, Thomas and Ollie: +32 as a unit (per 100 poss.)
Durant, Green, Westbrook, Sef, Krstic: + 28 as a unit (per 100 possessions)
Interesting eh?
I think the issue with Livingston is he’s not ready to defend for extended periods of time. With the team clearly cranking up pressure on that end, I don’t think he can handle it right now.
At least that’s my thinking.
@Royce
I guess they have decided that he is just not quick enough to play the point… which is why they gave him time at the 2 and 3 during the preseason but not as much a the 1.
It’s really pretty disappointing, I hope he makes it into the rotation at some point…. at least he was dressed out unlike weaver, which must mean that they like him a little better as their backup combo guard.
Joe, which stat resource did you use for these?
fyi I am seeing substantial differences between the various sources. It probably diminishes over time but it is an issue.
Right now Brooks is playing 60% of the game with those 2 lineups. A pretty simple platoon of A and B teams with Durant being used as the centerpiece. Another big change from last season- so far. Last season the top 2 lineups played about 11% of the time- less than 1/5th as frequent. Concentration can be good if those lineups prove to be good over a longer stretch. I assume he rode what was working well enough these games. Too early to get a valid Adjusted +/- lineup read yet. The early numbers say they were playing against easy opponents.
To complete the thought, Brooks still found a way to split the remaining 36 minutes after the first 2 lineups 23 other ways. Durant – Green – Harden – Krstic – Westbrook and Durant – Green – Harden – Collison – Westbrook got just 2 each of those minutes though. They both “won” their tiny time slot. Maybe later.
Looking at our menacing schedule is a lot easier on the eyes now. We could lose the next 4 to these playoff teams (even though we have a good shot at Houston, they looked lost) then beat the Kings (0-2)and Clippers (0-3 and without Griffin) and we are at .500! So this is what it’s like to get a fast start.
@Crow
I guess since there isn’t much sample size, we have no idea which Durant-less lineup has the best numbers. Since Durant can’t keep up the minute load from these first two games (can he?), the trick will be finding the best lineup when Durant is on the bench. My guess right now is going to be Green, Collison, Thomas and some combination of guards, at least until we figure out if DJ is going to contribute any.
@B-RY
A sad day when you are slower then Ollie.
@Crow
I used BB Value for the +/- stuff, it just updated this afternoon, and I used BB Reference for the statistical leaders.
from now on i’m calling him… Nick “The Fade” Collison…. I dropped my pizza when he made that shot…. and about fainted with the wallace drive.
You are right Tapdog72, Brooks will have to find a non-Durant lineup, maybe a few.
Collison – Krstic- Sefolosha – Weaver- Westbrook was the best last season by a large margin but you are still dealing with small samples for it and the alternatives. There are lots of new alternatives now too. Not sure which will be the best but the Adjusted numbers give some basis for choosing. Maybe not enough or exclusive, but some basis.
@ someone (or several) with an attentive eye:
Is Thomas boxing out his man well? If so, his rebounding numbers might be tolerable or semi-forgivable.
@ Joe, in addition to your early stat leader marks:
Not sure how long it lasts but on the basis of his big assist game Harden is #1 on assist rating among shooting guards http://tinyurl.com/ydxw42g
I know, multi=post, trying not to, but since it is a positive point I hope it does bug too much-
Durant so far in a 4 way tie for 8th highest rebounds per game. That is back to his UT days. If that lasts it would help get Thomas, Green, Krstic partly off the hook for their rebound numbers.
Eh, one more positive note-
Krstic 6th highest raw FG% (not adjusted for 3s) in league among those with 15+ attempts. A still notable 12th best on the more inclusive, fairer overall TS% for these qualifiers.
In the name of more early pats on the back for more guys, found one more- Green is 17th right on TS% for those with 15+ FG attempts.
Joe can track which ones of these last.
Might as well-
Collison 16th best Offensive Rebounds per minute among those who’ve played 10+ minutes.
Lots of guys filled specific stat roles.
nice call . . . I just watched the first half again and Etan didnt block out once – Krstic and Collison are much better than him at that task – hopefully he gets this corrected – also, Etan is not very aggressive in going to get the ball after it hits the rim – he just watches (a lot of guys leap to go get it) . . .
I have seen Krstic box his man very well and be extremely aggressive at getting the boards. There was one rebound that was athletically impressive because he tipped the ball 2 times in the air and was quick enough to jump again and snag to the board. It was pretty quick for a 7 footer.
Our points allowed is so low because we played the kings and the pistons, not exactly offensive powerhouses, if we keep the blazers below 90 points then our defense is playing well.
Sagarin ratings at USA Today has the Thunder schedule to date as 8th easiest and rate them as 21st best while the Blazers schedule to date as 4th hardest and rate them as 10th best. But it is too early to conclude anything with this rating or without.
If you want another stat to chew on I see Thabo ranked at 6th worst in the league on Adjusted +/-, about 20th worst on raw +/-. Too early to conclude, let it cook longer before you chew much, but whether he should be starting with Durant and Green remains an issue to watch.
@Crow
Not sure how to quantify Sef’s adjusted +/-, it’s still just too soon to tell. He was +12 on raw +/- in the Sacto game and he was -9 in Detroit. That makes +3 raw. That’s good enough for me to suspect that the standard noise and error in the adjusted is still to voluminous to draw any conclusions. Harden is subbed for Sef and at this time the team is rocking with Harden because of his great passing which= great offensive flow. But Thabo’s lockdown defense has it’s place.
I should have said 20th worst on raw +/- “on/off”. The team in the first 2 games just did a whole better with him off even though he was +3 on.
I know it is way early and there are huge estimated errors right now but I mention it so others (especially you) can watch what happens to it if they want.
The starting lineup was -11 in about 15 minutes tonight.
Durant’s second worst shooting night of his NBA career. He had a 2-17 April 4 ’08. The overall FG% for the 3 games is really low. He’ll need to get that back in shape.