Setting the Bar: Kevin Durant
Thus wraps it up. Apologies to Kyle Weaver, Kevin Ollie and Etan Thomas. I just didn’t feel it that necessary to do it for them. 
Uh, defense. Defensedefensedefensedefense. If there’s one thing Durant isn’t elite in, it’s defense. There were flahses last year. Really good flashes. When he switched on Kobe and blocked of his two shots. When he manned up Paul Pierce and defended him well in Boston. The thing about Durant is that he’s made to be an incredible defender. He’s long, he’s athletic and he’s willing to work. It’s just about putting it all together. And when you’re just 20 years old and defense was never a big part of your basketball life previous to two years ago, it takes a little bit to learn it. This year is a big step in his defensive maturation. He needs to be better than last year. He doesn’t have to be Shane Battier or anything, but at least not be a liability when he’s on the floor. Durant’s defensive issues aren’t about effort. It’s about maturity and understanding. He’ll get there.
Five 40-point games. He did it twice last year, or three times if you count the Rookie/Sophomore game. Dwyane Wade had 10 40-point efforts last year. Kobe four, LeBron eight. The thing about KD’s two 40-point outings is that OKC lost both those games. But he’s the star of this team and sometimes stars have to carry their squad. There will be nights Russell Westbrook goes 3-13 from the floor and turns it over six times. There will be nights Jeff Green disappears. There will be nights where it’s left entirely up to KD to keep his group in it. He’s a scoring machine so this actually may be a little low. But if he’s to be a 30-point scorer or lead the league like some are saying, he’s going to have to put up a few big nights because there will be games where foul trouble happens and you’re lucky to score 18. Those outbursts pad the numbers.
Be an All-Star. I covered that here.
At some point, maybe get mentioned in the MVP talk. Granted, that’s going to take OKC winning, but at some point it would be pretty great if Durant was playing well and the Thunder were surprising a little and KD got thrown into the MVP mix. Probably wishful thinking, but hey, that’s what I’m kind of doing here.
Bump that PER up again. He went from 15.87 to 20.85 last season. That’s a pretty good spike. He did the most damage in true shooting percentage, rebounding and field goal percentage. I don’t expect him to rocket up five points again to 25 because he’s not a big assist guy, but getting into the 22-24 range would be nice. He could improve some in assists and a lot in turnovers.
Turn the ball over under 2.5 times a game. His rookie year he turned it over 2.9 times a game. Last year, 3.0. He’s not a great ball handler and a lot of the time a turnover would come because he was bumped off the ball and didn’t get a call. But he was also prone to bad decisions at times. Be smarter, make better decisions with the ball and hopefully with the added strength, some of those no-calls where he lost it are now just a bump en route to scoring. Let Russell Westbrook will take care of the turnovers. You take care of the ball.
Be a 180 shooter. He was close last year and at one point was a 179.5. He finished at 176.1, which is an excellent number regardless. But I think he can be a 180 guy. He shot 47.6 percent from the floor last year. I think he could get that to potentiall 49 or even 50 this year, but I’m not planning on that number jumping that much because 47.6 percent is pretty good. He hit 42.2 percent of his 3s. I think he could be at 44 percent there. And he hit 86.3 percent from the line. That could easily go up to 88-90 percent. The 180 is within reach for KD. If he lands at 175 or above, that’s still pretty darn good, but a 180 would be amazing, especially for such a high usage guy and a small forward.
Cut down on the minutes per game. Last year KD averaged 39 minutes per game, which was fifth in the league. It’s not necessarily a bad thing he played so many minutes because he’s young and he can handle it, but hopefully with some added depth, he can get down to playing 36-37 minutes a game. It’s not a lot, but over the course of a season, saving two minutes is like playing over three fewer games.
Score 400 points in a game. Well, how about 50 at least once? His career high is 47. Fifty isn’t crazy to hope for. Heck, 60 is probably going to happen at some point in the next few years. It’s selfish, but there’s nothing like watching KD get hot and just take everything over. He pulls up time after time and he knows he’s hitting it. I want to see scoring outbursts because they’re awesome and really for that reason only.
Be awesome and score and dunk and do all that great stuff, but most importantly, help your team win. Nobody wants to see KD score 75 points every night more than me. But if that doesn’t result in wins, then forget it. He could average 16 and five for the season but if that means OKC is a winner, I’m fine with it. Improve where you have to. If winning means Durant shoots less and scores 20 a game, then so be it. If it takes 35 a game from him to win, then that would be great as well. But whatever happens, just be the guy that leads your team to wins. KD is ultra competitive and he would die to win games. It didn’t happen a ton last year, but he wants to fix that this year. So if it’s by defense, by rebounding, by scoring or by shooting less, just do whatever it takes to make your team better.
Ideal stats: 29.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 3.0 apg; 48 percent from the field, 44 percent from 3. A lot of people think Durant is a 30 point per game guy this year. That could definitely happen, but I think with the addition of James Harden and with Westbrook hopefully evolving a bit, that he doesn’t have to dominate the ball that much. I do think his numbers will go up because that’s natural for a guy of his caliber to improve statisically. He took 18.1 shots a game last year and I think that number will be similar, but he’ll pick up a few points by shooting a touch better and by getting to the line more.
Let me hear you Thunderheads. What say you about Kevin Wayne Durant?
Don’t worry Royce, I’ve got you covered for Kyle Weaver’s and Etan Thomas’s “Setting the Bar.”
Kyle Weaver – See: Sefolosha, Thabo
Etan Thomas – See: Collison, Nick
@J.G.
Boom. Done.
Oh and for Kevin Ollie: See: Bench, End of
i can’t wait
Is it effort related? Might be interesting to watch for how his defense is right after he used the ball on offense vs the plays where he hadn’t. Is is resting? Does his D go down as his minutes in the quarter go up or the quarters advance? I’m not going to do that but Presti’s video guys should. Maybe somebody here can spot check if they want.
I think Durant’s ppg will be similar to what it was last year, 26-27 ppg range.
I think his added strength (speaking of which; have you seen pics of him recently? the added weight is obvious) will make an obvious difference in rebounds and turnovers.
@Dylan
I was actually extremely torn on what to put there. I honestly have no clue. I think he’ll be over 25 a game, but I wasn’t sure where he’d land between than and 30. I don’t think he’ll be a 30 a game guy until this team REALLY finds an identity and understands roles. And that may be in three years. So I had no clue. I put 29.5 because that’s kind of what I want…
I think getting his minutes down 1-2 minutes will be important more so in the future than now. We’ll want him fresh when the playoffs come around (next season hopefully) and for the rest of his career. I wonder if he can get his 3 point percentage higher. That’s an astounding feat of efficiency but maybe Harden and Westbrook will help him get more spot up shots. I CAN’T WAIT!!!!!!!
Besides landing a banger for the center position, the only other slot I see that needs filling is a back-up 3 that can hit outside to play behind KD and Uncle Jeff (and Thabo). If we can hold on to at least one of our first rounders for next year, we should be able to make that happen. Xavier Henry looks like a good candidate, but we will see.
I know these are individual goals, but I think KD’s ppg will go up because Westbrook will be a better distributor. Harden will also help feed KD (Harden seems more inclined to help everyone else score).
I think Durant is all effort all the time. But it seems that some games Kevin is focused on the offensive game. Maybe it’s because of what the coaches asked, trying to exploit a matchup they think they can win. Maybe it’s because someone else is struggling that night. Maybe it’s because he didn’t think he did what he could do the game before and is looking to get back on track. But for whatever reason, when KD’s focus is on offense, his defense suffers.
I’m sure that’s true of every player ever.
Also, I’m not so sure you can play 39 minutes a game and give 100% effort on both ends of the floor all the time. If you watch LeBron and Mello and those guys, they don’t guard the other team’s best offensive player. They matchup to the guys they can guard and play help defense. Everyone has to conserve some energy somewhere when you play nearly the entire game.
If Kevin plays fewer minutes, and has some help on the offensive end so that he doesn’t have to focus entirely on scoring, I think you’ll see his defensive effort rise.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Well said on all accounts.
Durant is a couple years away from being a mediocre defender, but who cares when he puts up 35-50 points a night?
I read a lot of basketball articles, and I forget when and where I read what I read, if that makes sense. But, I do remember reading that it takes players about 5 seasons to establish themselves as a defender. Of course, there are always players that come into the league just for defense. Guys like Thabo and Ariza and D12.
It took Mello a trip to the Olympics to figure out that his colleagues were focusing their efforts on defense. But when he did, he got much, much better in one off-season. That was the start of his 5th year.
Kevin is ahead of the curve when it comes to offense, so he may be able to focus on defense sooner than other players, thus establish a defensive presence sooner than other players. Time will tell. But if not, then we’ve got this season and next to go before Kevin hits that magical 5th year of defensive growth.
If there is better distribution from the guards, then maybe KD doesn’t have to work as hard on the offensive end, so he has more energy on defense…
I hope KD steps up as the natural leader and they reach their short-term goals, and in tern, reach the medium and longer-term goals.(i.e. .500+ ball, playoffs, Western Conference Champs, ect…)
I just hope they weather the early schedule enough not to demoralize the younger players.(most the team can’t even buy beer, right?!)
Any new news on “the Polish Hammer to OKC” front?
Durant’s minutes will go down when the Thunder start dominating games and that is the ONLY reason he shouldn’t get 40 minutes. Do Work.. then rest.
I’m probably the only one here, but I actually hope KD’s scoring goes down this year, yet efficiency increases. I’d like to see him do all that little stuff better (rebounding, assists, steals and fewer turns) yet be needed less to take so many shots per game. This can happen if Green takes a third year bump in efficiency, Westbrook gets his shooting percentages up and his turnovers down, and Harden is all that I think he is. Also Krstic makes a bump up in efficiency. If those things happen, KD can take say 16 or so shots per game instead of 18.8. That would put his average somewhere around 21-22 ppg, but the team would be better off. The more weapons that are out on the field the better the team.
But, in the end, if KD averages 26-29 and the team finds other ways to get up to around .500 ball (defense anyone? a better more versatile offensive scheme?)I would be more than fine with it.
I think the goals are great! I love the 180 shooter test. Leave it to a great coach like Majerus to coin the idea. I believe the Thunder still need a big man to keep them competitive. I like Kollison’s game but he’s not a true, back-to-the-basket kind of guy. I also think they need a guy who can knock down the 3-ball consistently. Hopefully, that’s where Harden comes in.
I think Durant will get there on D because for one, as Mike Krzyzewski said, he is long and versitile and two, he is only entering his third year in the league, Lebron James and Kobe Bryant had to grow into their defensive roles as well.
I’ll side with Coach K on KD:
“Everyone who was watching from our group said you could tell that Durant was a little bit on a mission — and that’s good for them to see that; it picks everybody up,” Krzyzewski said. “He’s that versatility guy, and the other thing is he’s a shooter, and with the way we were playing defense for most of the Olympics, with his length, he could be a heck of a defender.”
He needs to get better in the open court. I can’t remember how many times last year he had an opportunity for a fastbreak slam or dish and he dribble the ball off his foot because he tried to do too much with the ball (usually it was trying to do a behind the back dribble before going up). We need less of that.