Setting the Bar: Jeff Green
We took a look at a list of goals for the entire Thunder team a couple weeks ago. But let’s get detailed. Let’s get specific. I’m going to dig in and hit on some individual goals for a few players that would define a successful season. So what meters for success should we set for Uncle Jeff Green?
25 double-doubles. This number may be a wee bit high. Last season, he recorded 11. But that’s with 20 games or so at small forward where he had far less opportunity to board. Green isn’t a bad rebounder by any means (6.7 a game last season), but he’s not great either. The Thunder is missing a guy that can put up consistent double-doubles and Green is the best candidate. He’ll see the minutes, he’s in the position and he’s got the ability. It’s just a matter of him getting it done.
Over eight rebounds a game. When Scott Brooks challenged him last year, his rebounds bumped up big time. Here’s a challenge Jeff. Do it for a full season. We need to see a couple 15 rebound games. A bunch of 10 rebound game. And at worst, pull down five boards. None of this 34 minutes, two rebounds crap. He had 20 games last year where he pulled down fewer than five. But I know he’s capable of being a quality rebounder. Look at his production from February of last season – 9.5 a game with 12 a game in the last five. Then he got hurt and the number went down to 6.3 for March and 4.4 a game in April. If he commits mentally to being a good rebounder before each game, I think he can be OKC’s main guy on the boards.
Right at or over 40 percent from 3. Uncle Jeff went from a “Nooo!!! Dont’ shoot!” kind of guy into a “Take that!” guy in one season (27.6 to 38.9). He can hit an open 3 and that evolution in his game was one of the best things from last season. He put in the work during the offseason and it showed on the floor. As long as he maintains and hovers around that 40 percent mark, he’ll be a nightmare matchup for other power forwards.
Post scoring, post scoring, post scoring. Like I said, last year the evolution for Green was the 3. This year, let’s hope it’s a post game. He played basically everything outside of the paint last year, but at times he showcased some nice post offense. I just don’t think he’s confident enough in himself to go down on the block and try to score consistently. I’m not saying he needs a sky hook, but if he could back down and score more in the paint, I’d be a happy fan. It would open up more for Kevin Durant on the outside, but also with Green’s outside shooting ability it could make post scoring easier. 
Become a quality interior defender. Look, I know some don’t think there’s any way Jeff Green can play the four in this league. I understand that. But right now, you’ve got to deal with it because that’s where he’s playing. So when he matches up with Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan and Blake Griffin (!), he’s got to be able to contain them. He didn’t do a horrible job of it last year, but he wasn’t the best. He doesn’t move his feet extremely well and he’s not very physical. I’m not thinking he’ll be a three block a game kind of player, but a little help defense and a little bit of a wall on the block would certainly be nice.
Don’t disappear late. How many times did Jeff Green have a first half that looked like this: 10 points on 4 of 6 shooting, six rebounds, four assists, two blocks. But he finished the game with a line that looked like this: 14 points on 5 of 10 shooting, eight rebounds, four assists, two blocks. Not only did his production disappear sometimes, but it seemed like he just faded away in the game. He became overly passive and didn’t have the eye of the tiger late. I understand that KD is the go-to guy in crunch time, but Green has got to be there.
Take over 13 shots a game. Stay aggressive, but don’t overdo. He can’t be afraid to be the Robin to KD’s Batman. He’s more than willing to hand off the spotlight, but it seems like sometimes he does it to an extreme degree. He took 13.7 a game last year and although the addition of James Harden might take away a few, the reality is Green is OKC’s second best scorer right now. He has to continue to add support. In games he was productive, the Thunder was as well more often than not.
Ideal stats: 17.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 bpg; 46 percent from the floor, 39 percent from 3. Lost in KD’s great season and Russell Westbrook’s stellar rookie campaign was Green’s excellent improvement. His numbers went up across the board last year – more points, more rebounds, better percentages, more free throws. He really went from being a potential top five disappointment into an excellent pick. And if things continue to move forward for him, he could be in for an outstanding season. He put up 16.5 a game last year and if he can get to the line more and become a little more efficient, I don’t even think 20 a game is out of the question. But that would likely mean he’d be shooting more, which unless he explodes into a big time scorer, we don’t want. So a nice season would be another point per game while sticking around the same amount of attempts. Rebound better, distribute the ball (he’s a really nice passer) and bump the percentages up.
Your turn. What did I miss?
For me, and you kind of went over it, he needs to “learn” defense. He is out of position alot on different plays. When he covers “side” pick and rolls, he got in the way of our other player recovering and would give up easy layups as a result. It is one thing to get beat by a better player, but to get beat because you are constantly out of position is another. I contribute some of that to the switch from sf to pf, so hopefully he learned or will learn that. Strength is the other thing I hope he gained this summer. If he gaines some strength and picks up the defense then I would be happy with him putting up the same numbers as last season. The rebounds are not as big for me since the team rebounds well, so if we get the rebound I don’t care who got it.
Almost all of the things that you want out of Greene are non-basketball things. They are mental. You want him to be a more aggressive player, for longer periods of time. This will never happen. It just isn’t his mindset. They waited for him to show that at Georgetown and it never happened. He is not an aggressive person, and you cannot expect him to be able to change that. You can improve shooting ability, but you cannot improve tenacity for long stretches of time.
@Mitch
All non-basketball? How so? How is “playing better interior defense,” “25 double-doubles,” “average eight boards a game,” and “take over 13 shots a game” non-basketball? Sure “not disappearing late” is a mental thing, but that’s definitely something that can be improved.
This is off topic, but kd, westbrook, and harden are having quite the back and forth on twitter. It is pretty funny actually. Awesome how much all these young guys seem to like each other.
@Mitch
Did he have to be aggressive at Georgetown? I assumed Hibbert took care of much of that…
Royce, count me as someone who thinks Green is not a 4 in this league.
I’ll qualify that by saying that he can be a 4 on this team though, in the same way that Ra Lewis was a power forward playing beside Dwight Howard. Except sadly, we don’t have a Superman.
I guess Presti envisions our frontline becoming 2008-9 Orlando-lite, with Durant and Green as similarly skilled forwards with a natural inclination to shoot from mid-long range. I agree in a sense with Mitch that being a grunty power forward is unlikely to be in Green’s makeup if it hasn’t come through already.
Also, if the Orlando-lite model is to be followed, the worst centre to be paired with on our current roster is Krstic.
I’m in favour of starting Green with a (healthy) Thomas/Collison, and have Thomas/Collison and Krstic to come off the bench together. Yin-yang. Offence-defence pairings. Green-Krstic offers pretty minimal d and rebounding and too much replication of favourite shooting spots – that is, not from 8 feet. It is imbalanced IMO.
Apologies in advance if I have said this before.
ps welcome back Crow.
Thanks Walter. I’m still going to try to keep quiet as best I can til after the season starts. But I granted myself a brief exception because I wanted to.
If Green makes no improvements at all on offense from his year last year, but he improves his defense, then that’s all I want.
@Royce
What I meant by “non-basketball” is that, with the exception of improving his interior defense, none of those things are about getting better. They are about playing harder and being more aggressive for longer stretches of time. That just doesn’t happen. You can’t change a player’s mentality. Someone did a study a few years ago about rebounding rate and realized that guys do not become better rebounders. Rebounding is 90% about how much a player wants it. Sure you can say go play hard, but short bursts are different than keeping up aggressiveness over a whole season.
@Mitch
Oh, well I’d agree there. But there’s a ton of cases in players becoming better rebounders. Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett… all their rebounding numbers went up season by season. I’m not saying Green is in their category, but improvement there isn’t far fetched.
Well one of the 3 durant, westbrook or green needs to shoot less this season, they all took over 1000 shots last season, thats too many now with harden, livingston and white all being decent to good shooters, if westbrook and green each took a hundred less shots that would be better for the team, they need to improve their efficiency, really if green plays more in the post he will get to the line more which will help his scoring and inside shots will be better percentage, if he only shot 12 times a game but shot 48 or 49% it would be better.