Daily Thunder.com

Durant at SG gives OKC its best lineup, allowing the team to benefit from Green's versatilty; he needs more time on the court. Harden's development will benefit from coming off the bench, though I think he'll contribute as a rookie. Kristic at center makes most sense, with Collison starting and playing primarly at PF.

I try not to worry too much whether folks like me or not, something I continue to work on, but thanks johnnyco.

I agree with you that Westbrook would be wise to get the most out of drive n dish by studying the masters about how and when to dish. He probably does some but how much and whether it is enough of a focus we will see. I get the impression that Baron Davis makes some impression on him as a UCLA forebearer and as a summer pickup 'mate. Pluses and minuses to that. A dual threat guy can be a good thing. But Baron hasn't always blended it well.

@Crow

Don't worry Crow, I like you. Maybe I'm a bit of a nerd but I enjoy your stats and the way you present the topic at hand.

I totally agree with your point about the midrange game. While most people agree that Westbrook needs to improve his J (so do I), the larger issue in my mind is his decision making when he drives to the hoop. I think for the purpose of the team that he would be better emulating Magic than Jordan, and by that I mean he doesn't have to take over with scoring but can score as needed while making great decisions to get the others involved. I'd rather see him drive and dish any day than attempt an 18 footer. Now if he actually develops Jordan's tendency for making those shots, that's a different story. Regardless, I think Westbrook holds the keys for this team. If he makes a big leap this year then the Thunder will be in the playoffs.

The logjam idea is a very interesting take on Presti's whole scheme. On one hand, having someone able to move and switch on just about anyone else could be a boon on the court. On the other, it may mean sacrificing something important at a necessary position (I'm looking at you Jeff Green).

We have logjams at positions that, inevitably, still aren't very good. We have a bunch of 2s, but the best of the bunch is a rookie. We have a bunch of 4s, but it was one of our weakest positions last year relative to our competition. We are "set" at the 5, but Krstic isn't a center that can take this team places without a dominant 4. It's nice that we have a dozen guys who can play the 2-4, but not so much that only Durant is a quality starter there.

My personal starting five would be the same as Joe's. My hope is that Westbrook's finishing will improve greatly and that many of his turnovers can be turned into kickouts to Harden and Durant. I don't want to ask much of Harden, but I would love for him to take and hit open threes. No one respected our outside game at all last year, and our SGs had a terrible habit of taking 2 steps inside the 3 before bricking a shot. Harden doesn't need to take over anything, just make those shots he predecessors could not. Durant needs to become a superstar. Collison needs to bang bang and bang some more down low. Krstic needs to either improve his mid-range game or focus on taking 10 footers. Green needs to come off the bench at 110%, and Brooks needs to take him out before he fades. Green was great for short stretches in games, Brooks absolutely has to utilize that or else Green needs to be moved for someone more suited to the 4/5, and less suited to the 3.

A string of comments happens because I am trying to do other stuff at the same time. I'll add a comment then move back to other stuff. And I occasionally have computer issues and lose stuff so I say it and move on.

I can see some might find it intimidating or distasteful but I am sorry I can't help that. I can't wait around to take a turn every hour or few hours or once a day. Everyone has unlimited access to send a comment in at any time.

No real logjam. Comment or don't. You focus on yours.
Mine are mine.

But as I said, have at it, uninterrupted. Til I want to add something.

Comment consolidation would be nice, sorry. But if that is the worst thing happening, I fail to see it as a big issue. Whether it is a new post or not they are just a string of usually short paragraphs. If I am talking to myself sometimes it is because I have things I want to say. Sure it would be nice to get more direct feedback on content and have discussion but I can't control who comments back. Notice I have almost always commented on other people's stuff when I can or when asked. If you don't want to comment on my stuff, that's fine but then don't say it is me talking to myself, it is you choosing not to engage in discussion. I could tell some jokes but frankly I am not interested in doing so. I am not seeking laughs, just interested in basketball.

But have it, I've scratched my comment itch one more time and I'm out for awhile and some day for good.

As for the rotation: Scott Brooks likes to keep the rotation short. He generally played only 8-9 on any given night. Some guys are going to be left out. I think Ibaka will either spend some time in Tulsa, or else be on the inactive roster a lot. Mullens probably the same. Weaver and White will be with the big team, but play sparingly.

I think you're spot on at PG, but I do suspect that Livingston and Westbrook will share SOME time on the floor. I imagine that Sefolosha will begin the season as the starter at SG, but eventually plays less than half the game with Harden (assuming he stops getting a minor injury everytime he steps on the floor) and Livingston taking the rest. I can't argue with your SF prediction, but I would be shocked if Green isn't the starter at PF playing about thirty minues/game there. Krstic will play about 25 minutes at center, with Collison rotating with him there and playing PF when Green is giving Durant his five minutes a night to rest. Thomas will get less than ten minutes, when healthy.

Excellent points. It looks to me like Presti kind of shares my view that there are really only three positions on the floor. Point guard, wings, and post players. It's more nuanced than that, but I generally believe that shooting guards/small forwards and power forward/center are pretty interchangeable. As the NBA progresses to the more uptempo style, which is going to happen because the league always tweaks the rules to benefit whatever sells the most tickets--and D'Antoni ball is the biggest draw right now, versatility is going to be very important.

yea to be honest i don't even read crows comments, no offense, so many comments that feel like your doing a research paper, and the fact that i have yet to hear him say anything humorus or get even chuckle :P

c'mon crow lets hear some random humorus banter! that is oklahoma or thunder related... hehe

@Anonymous

A little comment consolidation on Crow's part would be great. Makes reading these things more than a little difficult.

Boone is the far better defensive rebounder and far less turnover prone. Out of Maryland area. Might know some folks in common with Green or Durant.

Both can run well I believe. Can't say any the 3 vet centers this team has excel at that. Ibaka of course would. People mention Kemp. Might be worth mentioning Amare. As pie in the sky.

Boone is probably the better of the two. Both meet the legit 6'10, good athlete, pretty quick criteria. That type looks attractive for defense. And yet both disappointed on D at least last season. Both were UConn and got good instruction. They probably aren't going to get better- unless they got boat loads of time and attention. Boone isn't quite 25 yet and neither is Armstrong. They'll probably be courted for back-up $2 mil a yr deals. Might find better, many teams do worse.

Here are a couple of guys I think we could get dirt-cheap:

Hilton Armstrong: He's a young center with an expiring deal. I can see Presti trading for him just to see if he is any good. The good thing about him is that we would probably be able to get him for free. New Orleans has plenty of bigs, and would probably be willing to give him up in exchange for a 2037 second-round pick.

Hilton got some decent, if inconsistent minutes last year after Chandler got injured. His minutes fluctuated so much that it is difficult to get a read on him by simply looking at the numbers, although he consistently blocked shots, something we desperately need.

Josh Boone: Boone is an interesting player. He averaged nine points, seven rebounds, and a block in twenty-five minutes per game in '07/'08. Then, Brook Lopez came along and his minutes dropped like dishwasher that has been thrown out of an airplane. Judging by his numbers from '07/'08 and his numbers from games last season in which he played big minutes, he seems to be a younger, taller Nick Collison.

I'll admit, I know nothing about him. I know that his favorite movies are Saw and Independence Day, (So he has horrid taste in movies.) and the only time I've ever seen a game in which he got big minutes was two years ago against Golden State, and the only thing I remember about that game was that Nellie successfully used the Hack-a-Shaq on him. But all that aside, he seems like he would be a decent pickup.

I'm not entirely sure what we would have to give up to get Boone. I doubt that NJ will compromise their cap-space by resigning him after the season, so one of our second-round picks next year might be enough, but I'm not sure.

Personally, I'd prefer Boone because he has proven that he is a decent player in the past, but like I said, we could probably get Armstrong for free, so he would be okay too.

@Royce
I feel worthy of a smart thought.

To get Mullens 200 minutes you'd have to give him 5 minutes every other game or 10 minutes every game the last 20. If you don't how is he going to be ready for much duty (anything close to 500 minutes or above) in 2010-11?

If Ibaka doesn't get 400 minutes how much will he learn? His time is very hard to guess right now. But it might clear up pretty quickly- one way or the other. Or it could reverse sharply at some point- either direction.

Steven Hill is in Chicago's camp.

I smell some smart thoughts of the week in here. Good discussion.

Somebody covering the team on the ground could ask and try to get an answer. If they think it is worth a sentence.

He is still on his Greek team roster but it hasn't been updated since April.

A bit surprised Hardin isn't at least in Thunder camp or explained why he isn't.
I think he was in Greece some last year. Not sure where he is now. This site doesn't say
http://www.devonhardin.com/
and if they don't know, who does?

With more shots from Livingston, Harden, Durant, Green, White, Ibaka and Krstic, all who like or probably like the mid-range, they could easily move to #1 in mid-range frequency. Especially if they are not being told to not do so and to move boldly the other way. Detroit and Toronto are the only "competition" ahead of them and not the right company to be in. True, some good teams aren't far behind but they have other strengths and are pushing their luck doing the mid-range thing as much as they do.

Keep Krstic and Collison at last season's minutes and you have another 10 minute block to offer Ibaka or split with Mullens or add to White's time or even Thomas'. If Krstic and / or Collison play 30 they better be fresh and doing ok or better.

Totally unrelated to training, but slightly interesting. I was looking through some screenshots of 2K10, and I came across a screenshot of the 66ers roster. Most of the guys were computer-generated fakes, but there was a power forward named D. Hardin on the roster. That is either a coincidence of massive proportions, or DeVon Hardin is in the game. I'm inclined to think that Hardin is actually in the game, which is kind of cool.

From every mid-range location the team shot less than 40% FG%. Get a wide-open look or have to take one, understandable. But anything contested and yet "voluntary"- instead of passing around more in search of something better when there is time- is usually a bad bet unless the other team are good thieves. It needs to work about 50% or more often to justify and never does on average.Some mid-range is inevitable, unavoidable, a product of good defense of the high FG% zones. Even Orlando shot 32% from mid-range. But the Thunder shot 49% from there.

3 of the conference finalists were in 9 with the lowest team mid-range frequency. The Cavs a bit higher than average and I think that hurt them some. Thunder were 3rd highest.

As much as DJ White and Ibaka both seem to love the mid-range and seem to have been chosen with that as a high priority skill requirement, I hope they try the inside game more than Green and Krstic and with effectiveness.

If you are spreading the floor with jump-shooting bigs a lot, often 2 at once, and Westbrook isn't finishing much and Durant isn't using it that much and you end up average on team inside game and the worst on mid-range game and worst on 3 point game then you didn't accomplish enough with that strategy.

Westbrook was at 42% for inside shot percentage but his FG% was quite low so it doesn't count for as much positive impact as it might first sound. His inside shooting was equivalent in effectiveness to a 32% 3 point shooter. In other words, nothing special. Then. Let's see what he does with his inside FG%, his inside shot rate, his 3 point and mid-range game and passing...

From a strategic standpoint if you have 2 jump-shooting bigs in the game the main saving rationale would be others driving the lane repeatedly. Westbrook and Durant suggest that kind of thinking.

Durant though didn't change much. His inside shot % went from 26% in year 1 to just 27% in year 2. Need more of that. Drives or post-ups or cuts or back-cuts.

With Thomas the other big probably has to be a decent outside shooter because his jumper is in the 20% FG% range. He can finish the ball inside and that is what he should do only but you usually need some big man range.

It is good to have one big man on the floor who can hit the mid-ranger some to spread the floor and bail things out occasionally but to have 2 trying to emphasize the mid-range doesn't sound like good strategy to me either.

Green's inside shot% fell from 40% to 36% from year 1 to 2. Now he did increase his 3 point game a lot and that is good but it looks like he still increased the mid-range shots per game. Actually he increased his shots from everywhere and from mid-range the least but it might be good to have the mid-range go down and I wouldn't want them to go up much from here.

In the past and even a few days ago some people were saying enough with the player pairs. Now a handful of others have posted things with some attention to player pairs. Interesting.

For interior pairs I initially looked at and built around

Green-Krstic
Green-Collison
White-Krstic
White-Collison
Collison-Krstic
and maybe try Green-White

but I guess you could add
Green-Thomas
Ibaka-Krstic

Ibaka-Collison
and Ibaka-Thomas are there too but might be too little proven shooting and pressure Ibaka a bit much.

@Crow
I thought Green's goal of working on his mid range jumper was odd, considering the limited arsenal we currently employ. Some semblance of a post game I thought would be more of a priority. Maybe this signals the thoughts echoed above about the end of Krstic as a starter - Green will be taking his mid/longer range jumpshots?

Green tripled his 3 point attempts from season 1 to 2. Durant hardly changed at all. Will be interesting to see what each do with it. Both used it less late in the season. Maybe they got tired. but you aren't supposed to. Especially young.

@Dai@Steve
H
Green will continue to start but I agree that down the road he is going to be of more value to the team as a 6th man. The power-finesse combo just seems SO obvious, but hey, who are we to say?

@Joe
I would switch your starting 4,5 for Green and Thomas and have Harden and Krstic the main scorers in the second unit. This means Sefolosha starts at the 2, which is bound to happen initially anyway, potentially for longer if his corner 3 is a legit weapon. There'll be plenty of mix and match until Christmas, which is when a decision needs to be made about starters at 2,4,5 for the rest of the season.

Darnell must read all this collective wisdom - hey Darnell, how about a muse-type column about effective interior player pair options and broach the subject of benching Green as a super-sub? What say you?

How to other teams build up to an average amount of 3 pointers? Looking at a few close to the average it appears they usually have 6 guys who take 100+ 3 points and usually at least 3 of them are up near over 300 attempts.

Thunder had 2 over 200, 1 over 100 and 3 short of 100.

If Durant and Green push toward 300 and Harden does too and the others chipping go up a bit they get up close to average.

But with the inside game currently pretty weak, you'd want to be above average on this ideally.

Green talks about working on his mid-range shot. that's fine but if he takes more of them it will usually be hurting not helping. It will help if he has to take it or he takes instead of somebody worse but it still remains a shot to avoid. I hope he worked on his corner 3 shot and strategies for getting it. I'd think the organization would give the 3 point shooters tapes specifically on how to get the corner 3 to review probably weekly and I'd check with the coach at least monthly on the progress with it.

I didn't think it was long. No surprise there but hardly any post or string of post takes more than a minute or two to read.

On Durant back at SG some... yeah it is yet another option. Maybe best used when the opponent has a physical 3 and a SG who isn't too fast. Probably rare though. I didn't up with the perfect case to use it-maybe Boston or Philly. Maybe the Lakers.

wow that was long... sorry

I would say this about the Collison/Kirstic pairing with respect to Green and Durant. If I remember correctly, the Thunder had a good deal of sucess with Durant injured. During that stretch, they moved Green over to the 3 and played Collison and Kirstic at the 4 and 5.

It seemed to me at the time that the defensive matchups were difficult for teams to deal with.

And I don't necsessaritly buy the notion that Durant improved so much last year because he moved over to the 3. I'm sure it helped, but he was making strides regardless.

I would almost prefer that Durant get a little playing time at the 2 this year when they think they can exploit the other team's size. It would be fun to watch a RW/KD/Green/Collison/Kirstic set get some minutes when it's advantageous.

And for anyone who has seen Ibaka's transition game and high-flying dunk act... you would have to agree that he needs some mintues at the 4. Even if it means losing, I would love to see the Thunder's transition offense with RW/KD/Green/Ibaka/Collison!!! That would be quite the show!

Weaver is signed cheap thru next season with a qualifying offer the following season. Thabo will want to get a long-term deal next summer as a restricted free agent. Maybe he has to take the qualifying offer. He has more to prove to stay at 3 times the price of Weaver this season and 4 times next season if he takes the QO. Thabo won't stay without good money and long-term security and good minutes unless he can't get more elsewhere. Hard to say how high his value is elsewhere.

@Nix
I love the idea of playing full court pressure defense in spurts the way the Bulls used to in their heyday, but I would like to use that as a means of getting Ibaka some more court time, and do it when we are transitioning the starters OUT of the rotation. My line-up would be:
RW
Thabo
KD
Uncle Jeff
Ibaka
Playing up-tempo, helter skelter would minimize Green's bulk deficiency in the four spot, and Ibaka's immaturity on the defensive end. It would also emphasize the athletic advantage those guys should have across the board to disrupt our opponent before putting the second unit in with an emphasis on half-court offense and defense.

I agree that Jeff Green should be starting. The sooner they get the young talent going, the better. With the hopes that the young guns won't get split up, it's better to get them time now in hopes of developing chemistry. I think Weaver should also be getting more time at the 1 and 2 positions. Again, I think the sooner he gets minutes, the more he benefits. Overall, I think it should be Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green, and Kristic respectively in the 1 through 5 positions. With talent like Kollison, Weaver, Thabo, Livingstong and White coming off the bench, the Thunder are looking pretty good.

@Dai
I agree entirely about starting Green and Thomas. Green WILL continue as our starter unless/until White or Ibeka prove themselves to be superior at the PF position. In theory at lest, Green and Thomas give you the same pairing of power/finesse that had Joe starting Collison with Krstic.

The one thing that I don't like about your starting lineup is the lack of scoring-spark on the second unit. I think there will be serious problems if Green is the scoring spark off the bench. He just isn't that great at creating his own shot. He's a spot-up shooter with some very small potential to post-up. I think it would be better to reserve Harden for the second unit. Let him focus on offense as most rookies aren't given the opportunity by refs to play good defence anyway.

I wouldnt be surprised if weaver ends up as part of a trade for a center.

I like pairing Green and Thomas, but I would have them start. I agree Green should be a 6th man, but we need a great PF before Green starts riding the bench.

Since their strengths and weaknesses perfectly compliment one another, Harden and Westbrook will be a terrifying duo. Even though I would not start Harden (yet), I agree that he should get plenty of on-court time with Durant and Westbrook. Harden can rotate playing point on possessions to keep the defense on their toes. Additionally he can punish teams that double team Durant.

Can Harden sneak there?

Westbrook got there 16 times. Close to the same rate as Durant. Just hard to do for some who demand attention.

I temporarily forgot about Thabo. He shot 40 corner 3s for the season, in OKC and Chicago. At that rate he shot from there about once every 9 shots and 25% less per minute than Weaver and also not as well as Weaver. They are guys who are getting that shot, in part because other teams probably work harder to prevent Green or especially Durant for getting it.

I must say that I am extremely happy that the only trouble we're having 2 days into camp is keeping our rookie on the court the entire practice. It's a bad problem, but I believe that it is a little better than what the Cavs are dealing with... missing two days because of hiding guns in guitar cases due to someone being off their medicine. That's a distraction.