Daily Thunder.com

Brett Hainline from Queen City Hoops, who is to statistical analysis what William Wallace is to freedom, has put together his own spin on ESPN’s Trade Machine. Basically, he’s got a program that lets you swap a player straight up for ANY other player and his formula tells you how much better your team would be with the new guy.

So ever wondered what it would be like if OKC had Tim Duncan? Or Kobe Bryant? Or what if that Tyson Chandler deal would have stuck? Now we have a better idea than ever before.

Swap Jeff Green for Tim Duncan: the Thunder wins four more games. (That honestly was somewhat surprising. I figured that number would have shot up to 10.)

Swap Thabo Sefolosha for Kobe Bryant: the Thunder wins 12 more games.

Swap Nenad Krstic for a (healthy) Tyson Chandler: Brace yourselves… Oklahoma City improves by almost 14 games. If you trade Chris Wilcox for Chandler, OKC’s “wins” go up to 47, or 30 if Chandler just played Wilcox’s minutes or 34 if Chandler played his usual minutes. For Joe Smith, the numbers are 34, 27 and 28.

You can go all day with this stuff. Now there’s different results based on assuming for example Chandler plays Krstic’s minutes or if Chandler plays his usual minutes. I’d recommend reading this post from TrueHoop to better understand the machine as well. While the wins change, it doesn’t necessarily mean that would be the actual result in the standings. It’s just a formula spitting out numbers. So keep that in mind. But give it a whirl. Brett acknowledges it’s not perfect, but I’d say it’s pretty darn entertaining regardless.

UPDATE: Hainline tweaked his formula a bit so if you’re getting different results, that’s why.

Commentary Swap Machine

No. 5: Durant goes down but Thunder hangs tough in Big D

With about four minutes left in the first quarter, the state of Oklahoma was almost sucked into a vortex because of the collective gasp when Kevin Durant went down clutching his ankle. I feared the worst. Busted ankle, out for the season, surgery, maybe he’ll be back for camp this year. That’s the way I am though. Turns out it was just a little sprain. But he wasn’t able to return to action against Dallas. And that left Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green to pick up the slack. Read more…

Riff Raff Dallas Mavericks

As we said yesterday, Ryan Bowen and Michael Ruffin will be at the Thunder’s camp, but two more players are coming along. Point guard Tre Kelley from South Carolina and Michael Harris, a power forward from Rice who played briefly with Houston last year.

The New York Times with a cool feature on Kevin Durant: ”Some of it is based on where he is. Oklahoma City is the league’s smallest market. And although this city may have accepted its professional basketball team — the Ford Center had 18 sellouts last season, the franchise’s first after a move from Seattle — it is still discovering the players. Most of it, though, is based on who Durant is, a person with a quiet sense of humor and a demeanor so modest that it is as if he is a star who does not quite realize he is one.”

The Orlando Sentinal has a preview/power poll out and OKC comes in No. 24: “The status of the Oklahoma City Thunder is perhaps best explained by a comment Kevin Durant posted on his Twitter account this summer. He said while in Hong Kong, when he told people he played for Oklahoma City, they’d say maybe if he worked hard, he’d someday make the pros. Durant is pretty sure he’ll show them, and the Thunder probably have the most exciting young corps of players with Durant, Russell Westbrook and draft pick James Harden. As those guys progress, so will the team.” Read more…

Bolts

From FanHouse:

In this tough economy, any job for a player these days is a good one. And there is talk the Thunder, with 14 guaranteed contracts and no worries about the luxury tax, might be a rare team that has no problem with a 15-man roster.

That’s why veteran forwards Michael Ruffin and Ryan Bowen will be heading to the Thunder camp on nonguaranteed contracts, looking to earn a job.

Ruffin is a nine-year veteran (out of Tulsa, mind you) and played last season with Portland, averaging 0.5 points per game and 1.0 rebounds per game in just 11 games and 35 total minutes. He’s a 6’8″ power forward that to me, is most famous for this.

Bowen was most recently with New Orleans and is also a nine-year man out of Iowa. The 6’9″ power forward averaged 2.2 ppg and 1.1 rpg in 21 games and 10.4 minutes per game last year with the Hornets.

Bowen’s agent, Guy Zucker, said, “[Oklahoma City] tell[s] us they have a spot … And they’re looking for somebody similar to Ryan. So we think we have a good chance. They’ve got a young team, and they’re looking for [a good veteran influence]. Ryan is incredibly professional, he’s unbelievably smart, he’s experienced, and he has no ego.”

If you remember last year, the Thunder brought swingman Derrick Byers, seven-footer Chris Alexander and former Oklahoma State star John Lucas to camp before cutting all three. So nothing is certain for Bowen and Ruffin. Though OKC does have an extra roster spot open, Sam Presti generally likes flexibility so unless they really knock some socks off in camp, I doubt either one is part of the roster come October 29.

News Michael Ruffin, Ryan Bowen

Thus wraps it up. Apologies to Kyle Weaver, Kevin Ollie and Etan Thomas. I just didn’t feel it that necessary to do it for them.

Uh, defense. Defensedefensedefensedefense. If there’s one thing Durant isn’t elite in, it’s defense. There were flahses last year. Really good flashes. When he switched on Kobe and blocked of his two shots. When he manned up Paul Pierce and defended him well in Boston. The thing about Durant is that he’s made to be an incredible defender. He’s long, he’s athletic and he’s willing to work. It’s just about putting it all together. And when you’re just 20 years old and defense was never a big part of your basketball life previous to two years ago, it takes a little bit to learn it. This year is a big step in his defensive maturation. He needs to be better than last year. He doesn’t have to be Shane Battier or anything, but at least not be a liability when he’s on the floor. Durant’s defensive issues aren’t about effort. It’s about maturity and understanding. He’ll get there.

Five 40-point games. He did it twice last year, or three times if you count the Rookie/Sophomore game. Dwyane Wade had 10 40-point efforts last year. Kobe four, LeBron eight. The thing about KD’s two 40-point outings is that OKC lost both those games. But he’s the star of this team and sometimes stars have to carry their squad. There will be nights Russell Westbrook goes 3-13 from the floor and turns it over six times. There will be nights Jeff Green disappears. There will be nights where it’s left entirely up to KD to keep his group in it. He’s a scoring machine so this actually may be a little low. But if he’s to be a 30-point scorer or lead the league like some are saying, he’s going to have to put up a few big nights because there will be games where foul trouble happens and you’re lucky to score 18. Those outbursts pad the numbers. Read more…

Commentary Kevin Durant

No. 6: Thunder comes up short on Super Sunday in Sacramento

I must admit, this game was kind of boring. It was at like two in the afternoon, nobody was there and it was between two bad teams. But it was just a really good game. Two great scorers went head-to-head as Kevin Durant scored 33 and Kevin Martin had 37 for the Kings. Russell Westbrook got to the line 22 times as he scored 34, assisted eight times and had six rebounds. Oh, and Uncle Jeff tossed in 28 and 13. Read more…

Riff Raff Sacramento Kings

Scott Brooks plans on getting defensive this training camp: ”Training camp will provide Brooks a chance to implement some changes he couldn’t make on the fly last season. During visits with players in their hometowns this summer, taking trips ranging from Washington, D.C., to Los Angeles, Brooks stressed improving defensively is his No. 1 priority.”

Kevin Durant is giving himself some bulletin board material: “If people think Ima lead the league in scoring u must be high…u forgot @dwadeoffical , lebron, Kobe, Danny granger was still n da league?”

D.J. White and rookie James Harden will visit the Oklahoma State Fair on Senior day, Wednesday, Sept. 23. Harden will assist with cinnamon rolls and White will join fairgoers at the carnival games.

The Thunder could see a $3 million increase in revenue this season. Go buy yourself something nice Clay. Read more…

Bolts

If you’re anything like me you must feel like it’s been a very very long offseason waiting for some NBA action. Royce has done an exceptional job keeping fresh content up on Daily Thunder on a…well, “daily” basis. Me, I’ve tried to keep myself busy doing other things this Summer but I’ve always come back to wishing there was a Thunder game on in the evenings; something to write about and discuss on the site. In the absence of fresh games I’ve spent some time re-watching some of the Thunder games I found interesting which I saved on the DVR. I only had room to save about 20 or so, so I didn’t bother to save any of the serious butt kickings we took a few times, mostly I saved wins and games and where we were very competitive right till the end; I know it’s probably not an objective sample, but such is life. I would highly recommend Thunder fans saving some games this season if it’s at all possible.

It’s one thing to “know” that Russell Westbrook is a truly explosive athlete, but it’s really special to be reminded of it visually. Or to watch the effortless shooting stroke Durant possesses, the smooth overall game of Jeff Green, the disruptive defense of Thabo and Kyle Weaver. It’s just great to watch these special athletes perform their craft.

And since we are now just a week away from Media day (the day before training camp actually opens) for the Thunder, I thought I would take a few (ok, several) paragraphs and highlight one of the guys we don’t talk about as much, and a guy who repeatedly catches my eye when re-viewing some of these Thunder games: Nenad Krstic. Read more…

Commentary Nenad Krstic

No. 7: Durant gets the best of Oden in round one

For some reason, video of this game doesn’t appear to exist on the Internet, but I know it happened. I was there. And while it wasn’t especially close, it was the most fun I’ve ever had at a basketball game. The Thunder played one of its best games, Kevin Durant showed up Greg Oden in their first meeting and remember when Jeff Green busted the net? That was awesome. Well, except for the part where we had to sit and wait for 15 minutes while it got fixed. Read more…

Riff Raff Portland Trail Blazers

Kevin Durant’s birthday present from… someone.

A picture from Friday night’s birthday celebration for Kevin Durant. Pictured (for those that don’t know, but should): Jeff Green, Kyle Weaver, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell Westbrook.

SLAM looks at the “Tank n’ Draft” philosophy: “The polar opposite of the Grizzlies are the Thunder. General Manager Sam Presti knows Durant is a lock for superstardom, but still isn’t adding the veteran pieces that will get the Durantuala his first taste of playoffs basketball. And no matter how high Durant’s ceiling is, chances are the Thunder are going to struggle again with James Harden being their only real addition this summer. They’re probably holding onto mediocrity for one more season, trying to grab another top draft pick and adding their veterans during the insanity of 2010. While this strategy has an obvious upside, one has to wonder if Oklahoma is squandering a year’s worth of honestly competing.” Read more…

Bolts

Looks like Lionel Prichard and the Wolfington brothers are back. Or, it’s just a Thunder-obsessed farmer in Shawnee. Either way, it’s pretty awesome.

The Mikles Family Farm in Shawnee has put together this giant maze (five acres and two miles of trails) honoring, well, you know. It’s set up with Thunder trivia so if you know last year’s leading scorer, the name of the Thunder’s home arena, the name of the dance team or what the team colors represent, getting through it should be no sweat.

Oh and remember, they don’t like water and swing away Merrill. Swing away.

Riff Raff Thunder Maze

Throughout the week some of you drop some brilliant or at least somewhat thoughtful comments and so this is a try at highlighting some of them. Disclaimer: It’s not that I necessarily agree with all of them, but they were interesting and for the most part, well put. Consider everything sic’d.

Tell us how you really feel. (Todd): Concerning Jordon’s acceptance speech, let’s just say if and when Kevin Durant or anyone else from the Thunder enters the Hall of Fame, I hope they do it with a little more class than Jordan did. Maybe he tried to “beat down” every opponent as a player, but I didn’t see any opponent up there on the stage with him the other night. No one trying to steal his moment or stop him somehow. It was just Jordon, taking one final shot at everyone whom he ever thought slightest him in the least. He could have tried to be a little gracious, but apparently it was too much to ask. Apparently he’s not content unless he’s rubbing someone else’s face in the dirt, even as he’s being given his sport’s highest honor.

Smart Thoughts

We took a look at a list of goals for the entire Thunder team a couple weeks ago. But let’s get detailed. Let’s get specific. I’m going to dig in and hit on some individual goals for a few players that would define a successful season. So what meters for success should we set for Serge Ibaka and Byron Mullens?

Serge Ibaka

Don’t become Mo Sene. In other words, don’t become best buds with the Gatorade jug. Sene had potential but never found a way onto the floor unless OKC was down 30 with a minute to go. Ibaka showcased a far more polished game in the summer than Sene ever displayed, so that’s encouraging. He’s just 20, so I understand if he gets put on the end of the bench to learn and work. But the point is, don’t get trapped there. Show some improvement throughout the season, forcing Scott Brooks to give you time. Whether it be four minutes at the end of a game or 15 meaningful ones in the first half, just get some time on the floor. Sure, I’d love to see him explode and have a big year, but let’s be realistic and keep our minds set on player development.

Learn help defense. This will be a major goal for Byron Mullens as well, but with Ibaka’s length and absurd athleticism, there’s no excuse for him to not be swatting shots from little guards that try and come to the rim. He was late helping during summer ball, but that’s understandable as he learned the pace and feel of the game. But like I said, if there’s one thing he should do well, it’s rejecting shots from the weak side. Read more…

Commentary Byron Mullens, Serge Ibaka

No. 8: Thunder outlasts Chicago in overtime, 109-98

This game was right at the beginning of the Thunder’s 2009 renaissance. Going in to Chicago, OKC was 5-32, but had just won two of its last five, which was pretty good considering. But this game was on the road and the Thunder had only one previous road win and held a road record of 1-16 coming in. So the chances of victory hedged somewhere between none and none. But after finishing regulation tied at 94-94 and missing out on a last second chance to win, hopes of OKC playing well in overtime were about as low as they could be. But the Thunder shocked the world outscoring the Bulls 15-4 in extra time, to lock away win No. 6 behind Kevin Durant’s game-high 28 points. Read more…

Riff Raff Chicago Bulls

Jeff Latzke on the celebrity rise of Kevin Durant:  “Kevin Durant seems to be everywhere these days. There he is on TV, sporting a Jheri curl and doing his best ’70s rap impersonation. He spent three days in Hong Kong as an ambassador during the NBA Madness 2009 event. He’s back in Texas taking college classes, trying out for the U.S. national basketball team in Vegas and shuttling back and forth between his childhood home near Washington, D.C., and his in-season home in Oklahoma City. And in between, the Thunder’s star is in the gym every chance he gets to work on improving a team that won only 23 games last season.”

ESPN’s Rumors page picked up the Krstic/Gortat thing and had this to say: “We’ll just say, for the record, that the last time we got wind of the possibility that Marcin Gortat could end up in Oklahoma — and went public with it — we nearly crashed the ESPN servers. But, alas, we’re committed to the cause. Information, strap on thy wings … We don’t care if it involves a Croat relaying information to Serbs while hanging in Warsaw. Krstic and Gortat … together? Duncan and Robinson? Never heard of ‘em.”

HoopsWorld on the Kings signing Mason: “The swing positions are already fairly tight. Kevin Martin is locked in as the starter at shooting guard, plus Francisco Garcia behind him. Rookie Omri Casspi, Donte’ Greene, and Andres Nocioni can all play small forward. Rookie Tyreke Evans may also see some time at the two, though he’s officially listed on the roster as a point guard. Mason will bring a good veteran voice though, joining power forward Kenny Thomas as the only players with more than five years of NBA experience.” Read more…

Bolts