Home > Bolts > Friday Bolts – 9.25.09

Friday Bolts – 9.25.09

Sporting News named their All-Decade team in their last issue and Kevin Durant was on the first team. As was Joakim Noah, over Blake Griffin, Shane Battier and Dwyane Wade. Hmm. thunderbolt23

Shaun Powell of NBA.com says this is a make or break year for Greg Oden: “Can you imagine that, two years removed from a no-brainer draft decision, there are rumblings the Trail Blazers should’ve taken Kevin Durant instead? That says plenty about Durant, but also something about Oden, raw and hardly the impact player many expected him to be. Big men develop slowly, and Oden did suffer leg injuries, so patience, please. Still, Oden can make everyone in Portland exhale if he learns a pet move, elevates himself to third option on offense and grabs more than seven rebounds a game. Is that asking too much too soon? No, it isn’t.”

Real GM “honestly appraises” OKC’s championship chances: “Presti is manning an enviable battleship, easily one of the three or four best long-term outlooks in the NBA, but he still has a lot of work left and cannot simply set this current core out into orbit and expect a title to automatically return.” There’s a hefty amount of info about KD in there that’s pretty interesting.

A new Oklahoma sports website has launched called OK Blitz and as part of their marketing campaign, they’ve developed three very good commercials. One features the 2009 Mascot of the Year (don’t you love how people flaunt this, as if it means something), Rumble the Bison. Another is a clever one with Pistol Pete donating “blood”. And the last is the best of the three: Billy Sims yelling “BOOM-AH!” at an inappropriate place. Brilliant.

Oh, it looks like Houston is debuting those alternate jerseys against the Thunder Nov. 6. We’re so special!

Scott Howard-Cooper for NBA.com talking about Tyreke Evans’ point guard ability and using an example: “On the other hand, Russell Westbrook wasn’t experienced at the point coming out last season. The Thunder took him at No. 4 and he ended up making the All-Rookie team. He had a deeper body of work to evaluate (two years at UCLA, although he had a very limited role as a freshman), and was a better athlete and defender. But the Kings can rightly point skeptics toward Oklahoma City as evidence of how this can all turn out right.”

ESPN has their fantasy preview up, with rankings and projections. They have Kevin Durant as the third overall player with averaging 28.0 ppg and 7.4 rpg. Yes please.

Another tiny little site update: There’s now a nice print feature down at the bottom. So when I write a long-winded column or game recap, just print it off, take it to the throne and enjoy.

Share:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • del.icio.us
  • Fark
  • StumbleUpon

Bolts

Post comment as twitter logo facebook logo
Sort: Newest | Oldest

I just sorta agreed to be patient then slipped back into saying ya might want to hurry. Hmmm... how to reconcile?
How about be patient for 120 days then switch to warp drive (if necessary)?

In about 275 days they can offer Durant an early extension. In 640 days they offer Durant a deal that no other team can top. Tick, tock. What will the answers be? I'd be in a hurry to get settled and then better as fast as possible.

Oh and Marcel,

I remember things past and am in search of lost times.
Hence what happened here.

I know hardly anything about you or somebody using the same name, except those words. Though my use of them is my own and my meaning probably will be lost on others.

Ultimately checking player pairs and Adjusted +/- lineup data is intended to help wedding thru and finding what works or might work. I wouldn't propose a set of 12 lineups that I think might be good if I thought it was hopeless or was just in it for pointing out the negative.

I don't think that coaches like Scott Skiles relate well with players. I don't necessarily believe that Brooks was hired because he was weak, but because the players were fighting for him and Presti would have been stupid to not capitalize on that. Coaches... are important, but all the x's and o's don't bring wins if the players don't want to fight for a win. Besides, we aren't sure what level of basketball IQ he possesses yet and if he fails, he'll get fired and we'll try and find the next one. Crow, your reasoning is sound but I think that we should let it ride for a little bit and not be so concerned about "player pairs" that we scuttle all of this development before letting these guys grow up.

@Crow: I give Nate credit for getting some defensive effort out of an almost hopeless lineup in Seattle; the defense is slowly improving in Portland. Blazers are in a good position to get better defensively because they play a slow pace and are very efficient offensively, they are a young team growing together, and they are adding a piece in Greg Oden who could really make their defense gel. Defense tends to take time, for players coming into the league and for players coming together as a team. As far as the Thunder go, one thing they need to understand is that, as I've heard it said, defense begins at the offensive end. Take care of the ball, take shots in the flow of the offense and in the offensive scheme, mark your man, get back, set up. Cut down on the easy baskets (which often come from offensive breakdown). This is something San Antonio does very well--they don't gamble much, and thus don't get out of position and give up the easy points. Improvement on the offensive end will help with defense as well; conversely, it's hard to be elite defensively when your offense is at the bottom in efficiency. That's not to take away from needed defensive scheme, effort, focus, communication, and execution, more a reminder that some of the easiest defensive improvements for this team will come with improvement of fundamentals at the offensive end, which improves defense and sets the stage for further improvements at the defensive end. It can work the other way, too, but given the obsession with offense in the NBA and the fact that offense tends to come sooner than defense for new players, I look for improved teamwork and efficiency to be seen on the offensive first and (hopefully) carry over to the defense. The most important stat in this regard will be point differential, and that should be the benchmark for gauging improvement. Once the differential gets to about even, I would hope for the improvement to continue at the defensive end, because as you emphasize, elite teams are (virtually) always elite at the defensive end--the offense need only be smart and very good.

If it works out that Green and Thabo come off the bench in a year or two, I'll just say I've been saying I'd probably do it earlier. If Krstic gets moved to back up, I'd just been saying I'd have Noah or Lopez in there ahead of him right now. I like Weaver and White, probably more than most. I am not high on Mullens and am wait n see on Ibaka. I'd rather Westbrook shared the PG spot with the right vet or a young pure PG rather than be relied on for 35+ minutes. You'd change out 2 of late last season's starters eventually, I'd go up to 3 or 3 1/2 if count PG job-sharing that way and do it quicker. Style and timing may be more different than the substance.

If I make it scholarly and dispassionate folks snooze or say it is stuffy. If I put spin and heat on the ball, folks say it is too hot. Oh well. I could put a hit of more stuff that was overly peppy or sophomoric to my ears but I don't comment much on style, preferring to talk the substance of the game.

Anyways, think about and enjoy the season your way.

I'd be fine if things work out well for the team and its fans. I don't have to be right, I am just trying to think the game and share my thoughts, like anyone else. Well not exactly like anyone else but like anyone else tries to in their chosen way.

Sorry Marcel. When I let length run, people complain. When I make it dense, people complain. Or they complain about both. It is what it is.

Perhaps a good point Warren. That five might not be the long=run 5. (But isn't that what I am also saying, that it will need to change???) They act like it is now. they may well be biding their time and plan on moving players down the ranks or out. But can you move them down the ranks and keep them after treating them like they are the chosen few?

"If you want a team to be there for more than 3 or 4 years then you go slow, and let the team grow together"

It might work that way... or players may drift away for minutes and money and lack of fit in the eyes of either side. And some who might be better to drift or be moved away might not and eat up money and minutes.

It is too early to tell for sure. I'll agree on that. But future talk is a big part of what makes sports talk interesting.

Crow :If the plan is right about Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant, Green , Kristic then lets see how better that specific lineup does this season compared to last season’s -18 on adjusted +/-. Plenty of room to improve but does that hand-picked lineup get above neutral? And is it better than most of my choices? We’ll know soon enough.

Thats just it, that is not THE plan, more just part of the plan. It would be easy to sit back and spend money and bring in some of the good free agents that have been out there the last couple of years. If you want a team to be there for more than 3 or 4 years then you go slow, and let the team grow together. I think this line-up is just a small part of the overall plan. This team vs last years team are two different teams all together. I think 2 of our starters this year are going to be key bench guys in the next few years. (Thabo and Green) So to think that this is the plan and to base that one line-up as the whole "plan" is just not even close to being right. If it were me playing gm with the Thunder I would take a route close to what Presti is doing. I think if I go out and pick up a key free agent and spend some of that cap money that we have so much of, then I would be jeperdizing the future of "my" core guys. (My core is different than most others)

I really want to read Crow, but am intimidated by the length and density.

If the plan is right about Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant, Green , Kristic then lets see how better that specific lineup does this season compared to last season's -18 on adjusted +/-. Plenty of room to improve but does that hand-picked lineup get above neutral? And is it better than most of my choices? We'll know soon enough.

It is a bit funny that some who "dog" the value of fantasy games or chuckled along with those that do, then turnaround express hot interest in playing fantasy.

I never play traditional fantasy basketball. If you like great, just not realistic enough for me.

But I did join a simulation league at xohoops.com where I played for 1 season. Since most (or all) not know (even if that didn't stop then from scoffing at it) in that league you have to pick together lineups in 4 minute blocks run the quarters within playing time limits and the players are rated on all of the 4 factors on offense and defense and offensive and defensive adjusted +/- and shot usage is governed by actual usage and a simulator runs the team match-up play by play. You have honest lineup match-ups, shot sharing, shared responsibilities, weaknesses and strengths that feed on each other and the application of probability tables. Game by game play and trades within a salary cap, etc. It is not the real thing but it is pretty good and was pretty fun. 2nd best in the regular season wasn't bad. If I sucked at it, I might be less outspoken. But if you want to judge, judge my NBA comments insitead of doggin' that easy straw man target.

A partial checklist to think about(right or wrong):

Westbrook can/will be the starting PG of a contender

Thabo will be playing 20+ minutes and making a positive impact in OKC in 2010-11

Green will be there as the starter when the Thunder win a playoff series

Krstic re-signs, as a starter.

I could add other stuff Durant staying long-term, the level of playing time and success here long-term of recent draft picks, etc. but maybe focus on these. If you want.

Warren. good post. Everyone is entitled to their 2 cents.

To clarify Mike Brown is good enough maybe barely overall but his defense is darn good. Not going to impress many much though 'til he gets it done. But compare how little credit he gets, getting to the finals, compared to a certain GM.

Presti got his break into the tight social club of the NBA in large part because a rich friend invited him to work a basketball camp in Aspen where he happened to meet RC Buford. It all worked out from there with a ton of hard work and surely a good share of smarts but I think a lot more people could handle the second part pretty well if they got in the door.

Other people think their shots at me are clever. Take 'em if you feel it is appropriate or deserved n return but as I've said before check back in 6, 12 or 24 months at what I said and what happens.

My comments are not intended so much to hurt Presti as to show one outsider's alternate opinion and to suggest that the gap between insiders and informed outsiders may not be as great as the insiders think and many others think. But have your opinion and base it off the content and the accuracy of the content... or off style (what you like or don't like) or credentials as much as you want.

Wow Crow, um Mike Brown? He is only as good as Lebron makes him. So far he (Brown) has survived as a coach in Cleavland, not because of his x's and o's but for having LBJ. I agree with you about Green, but I think I will give him at least a full training camp and a full season at pf before I right him off. As for Krstic, I am not sure but wasn't he a starting center on a team that made a pretty deep run in the playoffs. I think he was with the Nets for a couple of post seasons and played pretty good. I think if he gets healthy he will be a better option than he was last season. As for your thoughts on Presti, just think about it like I do, we all have an opinion of what it takes to make a contending team, the only difference is that Presti has a resume that does not include the word fantasy. I think being a real gm of a real nba team is a little harder than running a fantasy league, but I guess it depends on who's fantasy it is. I don't love everything he does, but he is doing it the right way. I hope you don't think I am taking shots at you, because I am not, I am just putting in my 2 cents.

And while you might be able to classify Green as a #2 scorer individually I am not sure you can justify him there from a team perspective as the Green-Durant combo had an offensive efficiency no better than the teams next to last performance. But if Green doesn't help Durant on offense, at least so far, others better help them both on offense or defense and especially where they need it most. There are candidates but a big challenge to met the need. But if you don't think much of that analysis, then ask somebody else or trust in Presti.

Essentially Green would have to be justified right now as the #2 scorer since he isn't much help on protecting the ball or hardly any help getting the ball more. Defensive Adjusted says he is an average defender. He might be alright but he or someone else will have to get much better if they are to fashion a contender around Durant. White and Ibaka with Durant will be a key to watch, if you believe in analysis and what the numbers can help you check.

I'm sorry.

Krstic would be 1 good, 1 a bit below in the midpoint.

To win a championship you need a guy like Nate or the Nate of now at bare minimum.

Champs usually have a great star or stars and a very good or great coach and GM. I can't think of a recent team that didn't have all three and there are probably few exceptions.

Or if you want to be more accurate or charitable it would be one somewhere in the middle, one bad for Green and Krstic each.

But none are high achievers on the combination of these criteria.

That '76 Warriors team got to #2 on offensive efficiency despite being very average as shooters because they were elite at protecting the ball (not turning it over) and at getting the ball again via offensive rebounds.

On these criteria Westbrook is 1-1, Green 0-2, Kristic 1-1.

Nate is a pretty good coach broadly speaking but not so far noton what most think should be his bread n butter- defense. Last season was his first at above average on defensive efficiency and barely.

And yeah hypothetically you'd want a guy like that. Probably stays in the sweet Portland situation. If he ever left it would be to get to spot where he had much more player input. That doesn't sound like what Presti would be offering.

@ Crow-- Wow, I hear that guy Nate down in Portland is pretty good. Wonder where he was coaching before the Blazers? (speaking of identifying that up-and-coming coach...)

And Vince, if you think that doesn't show some ability to analyze the stats then you step up and do it better. My posts may sometimes be frequent but it seems to me that anyone with ideas to share and stones to take flak and willingness to share the space (or fight the clutter) will do so.

If you look at the Cavs and ask why they haven't won a title yet or especially if they don't this season, I think you'd have to say it is largely because they don't have a truly elite coach that adds value (and independence) beyond what management has done. Shaq should give a decent enough #2 scoring punch and it being inside matters a lot so it should be different, probably better than relying on Mo Williams (or an aged too much, too much jump shooting big Z).

I guess it comes down to if you want offense to be a strength that you rely on to be a contender then it has to become a contender level strength. Trying isn't enough.

How does Jackson run the Lakers with Kobe? Kobe as the clear #1, Gasol as the very good #2 and everyone else is a role player mainly building an elite defense. The Cavs are a lot like the 76 Warriors unless you count Mo Williams as a #2 or a good one- I wouldn't. So I can see the design of these teams and they are consistent. Presti probably is going off Duncan-Ginobili-Parker thinking. That can of course work as it did. But again it worked when they had elite defense and an elite coach who was actually higher in the pecking order than the GM. Will Presti eventually go to that Spur-like element? We'll see.

@Derrick
Trust me, I tried. It's that way because it's condensed to fit the width.

One thing you can do is click "agenda". It's a more streamlined look.

In 2 posts up should be
"That" usually comes from a very strong defensive coach...

Im not hatin.. Well except for Joakim Noah cause he sucks, but I cant make out the text in the calendar very well. Is their a way to change the font so we can see the info without clicking on the date.

I guess you could say PJ was a do it my way, defensive minded coach. But he just wasn't any good and being around every day for 7 years Presti didn't get that... or he just used him as a fall guy.

Reina mentions Rick Barry as a comparable to Durant and Rick Barry isn't the name most would pull up, largely because most are too young to know. I didn't watch much warriors in the 70s but know a little about his game. What was the design of his championship 1976 team? Average shooting the ball, below average getting to the line, 2nd on rebounding, above average on assists, 1st on steals, above average on blocks, about average on fouling. Overall #1 on defensive efficiency. Barry won a title in an era where points were quicker and easier than today but they won with 1 elite scorer and the best defense- not other guys trying to be elite scorers. If Durant is comparable to Barry then elite defense around him might be a good way to go. Not the only way but one way. Not usually comes from a very strong defensive coach and strong defensive coaches are usually my way empowered guys. Certainly it does not look good to have 3 guys trying to be strong or elite scorers and see that the offense was last on shooting efficiency and next to last overall. That isn't good coaching, design or talent, at least yet. With Harden they now have 4.

That isn't what I meant. Of course that isn't possible.

You might have the chance to get a Lawrence Frank level guy in the future, if you'd let him do it his way. Might have benefited from a Scott Skiles. Might benefit from a Jeff Gundy. But Presti shows no sign of wanting a strong, do it my way coach, yet and no way an established elite coach comes to just follow orders.

In the past I was thinking about trying to uncover the next elite coach and letting him learn and grow. I don't really know enough about Elston Turner, just speculating based on what I have heard from others, but compared to Scott Brooks I think he should have been considered and if ever given his chance he might prove to be good in a Mike Brown with the Cavs way.

@Crow
Good idea, let's fire Brooks. I hear Phil Jackson wants to come to OKC.

Chris Reina's piece is one of the best I've seen from him and is similar of many points to my assessment of the Thunder except substitute my future skepticism based on the current flaws with his expectation that the young players generally will improve significantly and that Presti will push the right buttons to correct the current flaws. In my view correcting the current flaws essentially involves starting over several places- probably Green and elsewhere. And getting an elite coach and probably letting him make the basketball calls about minutes, shots and chemistry much more freely rather than essentially just implementing the GM's plan.

@Royce

Excellent! Works now.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Whoops. Forgot to make it public. Should be fixed.

@Royce

All I get when I take a look at the calendar is a message that says "Events from one or more calendars could not be shown here because you do not have the permission to view them."

You can put that alternate jersey game against Houston in the win column for us. It's my birthday that day, and my gift will be a Thunder W. Take it to the bank.

I mostly just skip realGM articles due to their propensity to spread even the silliest of rumors, but this article was well done.

thanks for the info, im looking forward to this.

@Ben
Yes there is. The info is on our handy dandy calendar: http://www.dailythunder.com/team/schedule/

October 5.

Did i hear something about an open practice or something? Someone said it happened last year, just wondering.

@Blake
But the problem with that is, when it sucks you can't just turn around and flush it.

i take it to the throne anyways. With my cell phone.

@Dylan
I love that guy.

"Champ champ! What's your take on that rascal bunch from Portland? Word on the up is that they're the bees knees in the West. Does that jive with the talk your hearing?"

@Royce

You need to go in character like that guy from the Ticket in Dallas does. "HEY KEV IT WAS REAL NEAT-O WHEN YOU STROKED THAT LONGBALL!"

@okcnba
Actually I've been invited to media day Monday and from there, I might be getting credentialed. Which will be neato.

Hey Royce, you figured out how to get yourself into training camp?