Comments on: Tuesday Bolts – 7.28.09

By: Crow

Crow — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 07:42:40 +0000

If Durant’s bad adjusted =/- did persist into year 3 I’d of course focus on his defense but I’d also re-evaluate the offensive system and what he does in it, the play-calling and the lineups he plays with and the proportions. As much as adjusted tries to make a value estimate context neutral I don’t think it does a very good job of that yet.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 20:20:29 +0000

If you ran adjusted for players with and without a significant partner you might be able to pick up better when a player pair is significant, bad or good for one or both. When Durant plays with Green 75% of the time it is tougher to tell how much of the negative is fairly assigned to each player.Adjusted tries its best but it is tough. but then again the smaller samples have less power too. So the stats ultimately can’t decide everything with certainty and you have to make judgment calls.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 20:03:12 +0000

Adjusted is a better stat for identifying the great and terrible than it is distinguishing between average and a notch or two higher or lower. If Durant’s adjusted stays terrible for 3 years running that would concern me. But I wouldn’t be able to say with 100% confidence that is right.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 20:00:40 +0000

Green lower his adjusted +/- substantially this season to just -0.7 (per 48 minutes0. So he is estimated at essentially neutral impact, all things considered. This is far better than his estimate the previous season or the estimate for Durant this last season.Of course his good mark may be one of the ones off or his bad one could have been. His 2 year adjusted is -4. Over time the estimate will probably get a bit better. Within the limits of what adjusted can fairly say Green was fairly close to average this past season give or take in either direction and overall for 2 years is somewhere between average and poor.
But what he will be next season is pretty unknown and could be anything. I’d say his 2nd year mark and the year to year improvement “suggests” he is improving but 2 points aren’t enough to be sure of a trend, especially with this stat.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 19:51:46 +0000

I agree with DSMoK1 (from his comment at Berri’s blog) about checking Adjusted +/- since it does cover a player’s defense (1 on 1 and team impact). Adjusted is not perfectly accurate and could be substantially off in up to 1/3 the cases but as a tool for checking who “might” be over or under-rated I think it is helpful. Still compare it to what you have from other stats and your eyes but to completely ignore or dismiss is unwise to me.

By: Royce

Royce — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 18:43:00 +0000

KD continues to amaze with his humbleness:

http://twitter.com/KevinDurant35/status/2894698198

“MAN Y PEOPLE KEEP SAYIN THAT..IM NOT NOWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS LEBRON MAN”

By: Jax Raging Bile Duct

Jax Raging Bile Duct — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 17:33:12 +0000

@David The full article mentions the dunk contest.

By: David

David — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 17:32:12 +0000

i do agree that mason has been somewhat of the “un” he implied, but – correct me if im wrong – didn’t he win the slam dunk contest one year?

of coarse that was probably during the time when no one really cared about the slam dunk contest so i guess that just reinforces the writers point…

By: Royce

Royce — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 16:42:46 +0000

@Jax Raging Bile Duct Prepare yourselves because I'll probably just use that video this Saturday. It's pretty interesting.

By: Jax Raging Bile Duct

Jax Raging Bile Duct — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 16:35:35 +0000

Royce : New on Fanhouse: http://nba.fanhouse.com/2009/07/28/kevin-durant-talks-about-his-twitter-habit/

Great Video Royce. I think it's time to do the whole EdTV thing with KD. I'd watch it. PS. Joe "Beast" Smith raps about KD. That's worth noting.