Thursday Bolts – 7.9.09
Chad Ford ranks the summer for each team (Insider): “The Thunder are the “it” team among NBA junkies, who have a 
crush on Sam Presti for quickly turning a bad team into the best young team in the league. Kevin Durant is a superstar in the making. Russell Westbrook could be special. And Harden is a nice addition — a savvy guard with an old-school game who will be fine playing third fiddle to Durant and Westbrook. If you factor in that last year’s other draft pick, Serge Ibaka, has been looking pretty good in summer league, and that Mullens has enormous potential, the Thunder appear to be bursting at the seams with talent.”
The Blazers are planning to make a “generous offer” to Paul Millsap: “After a series of trades fell through this week, the Trail Blazers have settled on their next target: Utah power forward Paul Millsap. Although Millsap is a restricted free agent, meaning the Jazz can match any offer, the Blazers are preparing what one source called a “toxic” offer designed to exterminate interest from other teams.”
The Cavs will re-sign Varejao: “Cleveland is committing to Anderson Varejao long term. Sporting News’ Sean Deveney has learned Cleveland agreed to a six-year, $50 million contract with the free agent forward after passing on several sign-and-trade proposals. Deveney also reports the Cavs likely will make Varejao their starting power forward, giving them a frontcourt of Varejao, LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal.”
And the Hawks re-signed Zaza Pachulia: “The free-agent center agreed to terms with the Hawks on a new four-year deal worth an estimated $19 million, according to two people familiar with the situation. His deal comes a day after the Hawks agreed to terms on a three-year, $18 million deal with veteran point guard Mike Bibby. That puts two of the Hawks’ coveted free agents from this past season back on the roster. Forward Marvin Williams, a restricted free agent, and guard Flip Murray, an unrestricted free agent, have yet to come to terms on new contracts, though it’s unclear as to whether the Hawks plan to pursue a future with Murray.”
Darnell Mayberry on yesterday’s game: “The first thing I noticed about Livingston – because I didn’t catch Monday’s first game and he didn’t play Tuesday – is he is no longer wearing the bulky brace that once covered most of his left leg. Now, Livingston is wearing only a sleeve over his rehabilitated left knee. I’m not sure whether this is just something he’s doing for summer league or if he will bring back the brace during the season. But if he’s shed the protective gear, it’s a good sign that his knee is closer to full strength and bodes well for his prospects of regaining some of the explosion that many believe he’s forever lost.”
Celtics Hub: “The Celtics fell again today in Summer Ball play this afternoon in Orlando 94-82 to a talented Thunder squad featuring Russell Westbrook among other potential rotation candidates for Oklahoma City. As could be expected, the C’s had a number of up and down performances from their young prospects.”
The AP recap: “Some words to describe Russell Westbrook include; electrifying, passionate and smooth. It’s becoming more and more evident why the Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t draft a point guard like some thought they would with their third pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. Westbrook is clearly the answer for OKC, and the franchise recognizes he can be the one to lead the Thunder up the mountain. The former UCLA standout recorded 26 points on 9-of-16 shooting from the field and added five assists as the Thunder coasted past the Boston Celtics, 94-82, on Wednesday at the 2009 Orlando Pro Summer League. “I’m very motivated,” he said. “Right now I’m just trying to work on some things to be ready for the season.”
P, L & T: “The thing is, during his first two games in Orlando, on the heal of news that he would join the team during the 2009/10 season, Ibaka actually lived up to some of the hype. Personally, I expected an extremely raw, but athletic, kid who would look lost on the floor but occasionally do something spectacular athletically…kind of like Saer Sene used to do. Instead, he looked somewhat polished … If his legend turns out to be more fact, I may end up eating the words I wrote about Sam Presti as a talent evaluator from last week.”
It just really seems like Thunder management is on top of things: “Thunder management thought so highly of the job they did with Ibaka in Spain that they invited Ricoh Manresa coach Jaume Ponsarnau to be a part of their Summer League staff in Las Vegas starting next week. Ponsarnau will help ease the transition for Ibaka, who arrived in Oklahoma City only a few weeks ago.”
Take 2? The Hornets are shopping Tyson Chandler: “The Hornets could make a trade with a team under the new $57.7 million salary cap. Under that scenario, they can trade a player such as Tyson Chandler and obtain draft picks instead of having to acquire players with contracts within 75 percent of his salary. The nine teams under the salary cap are Charlotte, Sacramento, Minnesota, Portland, Toronto, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Detroit and Memphis.” And actually, only one team has enough cap room to bring on Chandler’s big deal. Guess who….
The salary cap could lower as far as $50.4M next year and Henry Abbott took a look at the positives of that: “One of the biggest effects this could have will be on players who are soon to come off rookie deals hoping for max contracts. Think about someone like Brandon Roy. The maximum contract for veterans like LeBron James or Dwyane Wade is calculated as a percentage of his previous year’s salary — basically, they can get a 5% raise. So they’re largely unaffected. But Roy is still earning rookie scale, and is looking for much more than a 5% raise. His maximum is based on the league’s basketball-related income, which has gone down and could go down further.”
Berry Tramel looks at what it could mean for OKC: “What does all that mean? Less money to spend on free agents, and since franchises already have the advantage in signing their own free agents – with longer contracts – the news should play well into the Thunder’s plans. The Thunder would do everything in its power to keep Durant and Co., but the price might not be driven as high under the current economic conditions.”
Ross Siler writing for TrueHoop: “Shaun Livingston never has watched a replay of the breakaway that nearly ended his career, though the grotesque video from February 2007 of Livingston dislocating his knee and tearing three ligaments has been viewed more than 184,000 times on YouTube. Livingston has no plans of watching it, either, at least not until his playing days are done. There are enough reminders already, from the brace on his left knee to his new position on the floor to his new home in Oklahoma City.”
And another story about Livingston. The better he does, the more we’ll see.
I wanted to toss up these two interview videos because 1) They’re interesting and 2) They have really clear, high-quality footage from the Summer League games. You can clearly see Serge Ibaka’s jumpshot, James Harden’s hand kiss and get a really good look at the action. (For a bigger video, click here.)
No way does Presti make a move for a free agent. DJ White and Ibaka are both showing promise, and Kirstic is likely to improve somewhat. Outside of trading away dead weight for another piece, I don’t see Presti doing anything dramatic for now.
He is in no rush to make the playoffs. He just added all these players – some of whom contributed nicely in the final few games – why not let it ride, get all of the players some court time and see who’s stock rises or falls. Then you re-evaluate those assets with a better understanding of chemistry and need, perhaps make some moves after the season has progressed a bit. People might not be salavating over those expiring contracts just yet, but they will be when they realize that some of their decisions did not work out as well as they had hoped, and the trade deadline approaches (just before a great FA season).
Just my opinion….let it ride baby! There isn’t anyone worth the risk as far as I am concerned. Aim for 30 games, but keep your eyes on the long-haul presti.
@Bryan
30 games you say?
lets take a poll as to how many games you honestly think the Thunder will win this year.
though i’m tempted to put down 42. i’m going with ..
37 wins
@Mark!
JG is right, the list is improve, not improvement or loss from the norm of a given team. Detroit upgraded a lot because they were terrible last year and got rid of their worst problems (Wallace and AI) while adding quality players (Gordon and Charlie V) who are young and one of whom is actually signed to a reasonable contract. OKC is so low because they haven’t done anything but draft a player. Sure, Harden could be a big deal, but we haven’t actively gone out and gotten any sure thing to make us better.
@J.G.
I agree that standing pat is a bad idea. With the cap crunch looming, our space is only going to lose value over time. Also, spending to spend is dumb, but hording money in a buyers market is just as dumb. Everyone wants to dump salaries to make a final push for the big names next year. We are one of the few teams who honestly doesn’t care. Because of that, we are in a very interesting situation whereby we can pick up quality players on the cheap. We can’t expect to just luck into a one-sided trade in the future, we have to jump on the opportunities while they present themselves.
@Bryan
Both White and Ibaka got killed in a summer league game against Hansbrough and “foul happy” Hibbert. I know we all expect great things from our players, but let’s be realistic. Both Ibaka and White are likely role players and can be near assured of never beating out Green. What we need is an upgrade at the 5. Presti should be looking for a deal like that no matter who we have developing.
I’m going to say around forty wins.
I think they are capable of winning 35 or more – if things go right. I’m still not sure how Scott Brooks will work out long term (just haven’t seen enough yet). He lost some games to rotation errors and coaching mistakes in my opinion.
The team is still turnover prone and will likely not improve much in that respect this year. Maybe I’m just trying not to get my hopes up (OU football bowl games disease).
Based off of the similarities of the Trailblazers year 3 in their rebuilding process (which the Thunder are now in)…
Anything over 32 wins is ahead of schedule.
Chris Sheridan said that Samuel Dalembert has a 7.5 percent trade kicker in his contract, so I think that would keep Presti from trading for him. Not only would we have to eat a sizeable amount of his contract, but we’d have to give him 1.65 million upfront.
@Keith
I’m not exactly pinning playoff hopes on Ibaka and White…lol. I get it. All I’m saying is that if I were Presti, I would be more interested in a trade deal than signing any of the current FA’s. That’s all.
What center is out there that would be worth trying to get? Bynum, Biedrins and Bogut aren’t going anywhere, Okafor’s contract is awful, Camby is old, and Kaman is injury-prone. I don’t think that there is any need to make a move unless we get an absolute bargain on Kaman. Krstic isn’t that bad, people!
@J.G.
What are we counting as the start of their rebuild? Roy and Aldridge joined them in 06-07, where they won 32 games (increase of 11 games). Portland then increased its win total by 10 (roughly) each year they had Roy/Aldridge. The Sonics won 31 games and before landing Durant/Green. After which, we have had 2 20 win seasons.
I know there has been a ton of improvement from that first 20 win season, but I don’t really like the Portland comparison. We’re not Portland. We aren’t going to be. We won’t see the steady rise that Portland did, instead probably moving up in a couple big (15-20 games) jumps.
@Vega
I wouldn’t be so sure on Bynum, his injury history as well as the fact that the Lakers were more effective against teams with good centers with Bynum out makes me think they are sincerely regretting that big contract extension. I agree that Biedrins and Bogut shouldn’t be moved though.
@Keith
Bynum’s salary is horrendous. No way we get him.
anyone else having issues with the video feed today? seems like the stream rate is low for some reason.
There isn’t anyone…go with what we got and move things around after the season starts – unless something irresistable comes along. And I don’t know what that would be.
@J.G.
My problem with Ford’s ranking is that he seems to rank Move > No Move, when I think it should be Good Move > No Move > Bad Move. If the purpose of the list is to tell us that Iverson -> Gordon/Villanueva is a good thing, then what’s the value? He even says that it’s to judge improvements, roster reconstruction and the overall value of the moves made given the situation the team faced.
For example, I don’t consider Detroit signing Gordon and Villanueva to $90M / 5Y as a good move for a myriad of reasons:
*Large, long-term salaries tied up in non-All Star players
*Shoot-first pass-maybe team play
*Defensive liabilities
*Play style out of character with the foundation of the club
*Don’t fill needs left by vacated players (post D? anyone? no?)
*One of the reasons Curry was fired was because of how he handled two star players who played the same position (Hamiliton/Iverson); Detroit then pays big $$$ for another SG
*Fires a first year head coach due to “lack of experience” then hires another first year head coach
And this is rated as 3rd best overall, I suppose simply because moves were made?
I wouldn’t place the Lakers at the top.
At the top of the list would be all the teams that made good moves. San Antonio, Boston, Clippers & Washington at the top; Golden State & Portland next assuming GS gets Amare w/o trading Curry and Portland doesn’t pay too much for Millsap (although I suspect they will); Cleveland and Atlanta next since Cleveland grabbing Carter is good (new since I posted) but they still paid way too much for Varejao, and even though Atlanta added Crawford I’m not sure how he fits into their system.
Those are the good moves IMO. Next are the non-movers, where I would put Lakers, OKC, Indiana ahead of the teams that didn’t make moves but deteriorated or remain stuck in a similar, non-ideal state as they did last year like Miami, Utah, etc.
That puts the Lakers around 9-10. 23 is ridiculous.
@Sammy
I don’t like the Magic’s moves this off-season because I think they lost more than they’ve gained.
VC is a question mark; the potential is definitely there, but he’s been a locker room cancer in the past. Hedo fit into their system, whereas it’s not a certainly that VC will mesh. But, even if we said VC = Hedo, Anderson does not equal Alston (expiring), Lee (rookie), Battie (expiring) and Gortat. Those guys played 30% of the Magic’s total minutes in the playoffs. Now they’ll have Reddick/Anderson/Johnson coming off the bench for quality minutes. That is a significant downgrade.
Excuse me, I meant “Iverson -> Gordon/Villanueva is an improvement.” Obviously, I don’t think it’s a good thing
@Mark!
Here is what simmons said about Detroit
“Link: Detroit as No. 3 best offseason? Chad Ford, here’s a cup – I’d like you to pee in it please. http://tinyurl.com/l7x7s2“
If Charlotte would trade Okafor, he’d be a good fit in Oklahoma City. He’s a great defensive presence, and scores well for a center. Plus, he’s exactly the kind of personality that Presti seems to be targeting. I’d give up Collison and take on the contract.
The point about using cap space is that, at this point, you’re using it just to use it. No one on here is arguing that the Thunder are going to contend for a title in the next two years. So, if you sign Chandler or Dalembert, you are going to pay them $20-25M for two years to go from winning 35 games this year and 43 next to winning 38 games and 46 next. Best case scenario. Then they’re free agents again — signing much smaller contracts — so owning their rights is basically worthless (since there’s no cap benefit to owning rights if you’re paying them less. And it’s hard to picture Chandler or Dalembert re-upping for 17M a year in 2011.)
On the other hand, if Chandler proves that his toe is sound, or Dalembert looks like a good fit in 2011, you can sign them for roughly the same amount of money you would have extended them for without having paid 20-25M, lost a roster spot, and hurt your chances at the 2010 trade deadline and in the 2010 FA market.
Long story short, if someone’s contract expires BEFORE KD/Green/Russ et al, then they’re basically of no value to us, unless they’re a future star who we can re-sign with an offer better than any other NBA team, or someone we’re developing (ie Livingston or our draft picks).
@Clark Matthews
I’d call Charlotte and offer Collison and Watson for Okafor. While Okafor’s contract is pretty bad, he is one of the premier defensive bigs in the league, and would fit very well here.
Okafor would be a very good asset to add to the stable. He is worth much more than Collison however. I can’t imagine getting him for only that.
@Vince
If you really think a healthy, 100% Tyson Chandler would only make a 3 win difference then I’m not going to even have a discussion about it.
The risk/reward on Tyson Chandler just comes down to how much Presti really thinks Tyson can contribute at a high level. Obviously if that possibility is too low, you don’t make the deal. But to say that adding Tyson Chandler, one of the BEST defensive bigs in the league when healthy, would only take your team to 3 more wins (from 35 to 38) is borderline crazy.
And the argument that if someone’s contract expires before KD and Green’s do, then they’re of no value to us, is even more ridiculous. Have a look at our entire roster of “keepers,” (Thabo would be a great example) and see who’s contracts expire. There’s a thing called chemistry that takes YEARS to develop. You sign players for the future AND for the immediate help, hence why they signed Desmond last year, for both his defensive production but also his veteran leadership.