Daily Thunder.com

serge hype is spreading!?...

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-42-49/Is-Ser...

@KingGondo

i agree with you, the only thing i would add is many times when i watched games last year there was always at least 1 quarter in a game where the other team would shut us down because of us being one dimensional, now with Harden here and a little more variety hopefully that should change.

I just found that little "top" button. sweet! technology rules!

The biggest thing I want to see next year:

We had leads of 10-15 points in MANY games that we lost. We had small leads at the end of MANY games we lost. I mean, we were up by over 30 points on Minny at one point, and we only won by about 10, iirc.

I want our team to be able to 1) keep a lead and put the game away, leaving no doubt by the 4th quarter, and 2) execute at the end of close games, and not give them away. If we do this, I think 35 wins should be the expectation, and 40 isn't out of the question.

@Happy247
The George Costanza approach. I like it.

Well after being a little critical of Westbrook, I have to say that I sure enjoy watching him. He does need to work on hitting the open man when they are coming open, not after they are open and are then covered. Not something that he can't improve on relatively easily. Should come with experience.
Ibaka is a pretty smooth big man. Some sweet blocks today. I was saying, "Get that shhhh____ot out of here!
DJ on the other hand I have to laugh at sometimes. He reminds me of our offensive lineman doing running drills. Someone commented on the Hogger Shuffle. Cracks me up.

@Sammy
I am with you Sammy, I see a possiblity of playoffs. Its good to dream. I only try to set low expections of myself, not my team.

@tbird26p
I assume you mean 2011 playoffs, not the 2010 playoffs which are next year.

On the 2010 playoffs:
LA, Denver, Utah, Portland, Dallas, and San Antonio are all locks. These teams are all clearly better than OKC and only catastrophe would allow one of them to fall out of the playoffs. New Orleans is a team in trouble, but they still won 49 games last year, and if they can manage to not take on too much water, they should be fine for a 7th or 8th seed. Now, what has to happen for either Houston to bubble out? Let's take a closer look.

Houston: I've learned to never underestimate the Houston Rockets. Honestly, there's nothing this team can do that would really shock me. They could finish with the best record in the league and I'd shrug my shoulders and say "that's Daryl Morey." On the other hand, their top two scoring options are... Luis Scola and Trevor Ariza? Really? I know that team makes its cheddar on defense, but wow. And now with Yao out, who's manning the middle? 6'8" Joey Dorsey? 6'6" Chuck Hayes? I don't think it's a huge stretch to say that Houston has a tough road back to the playoffs, and it doesn't take a lot of imagination to see them scraping along the bottom of the lottery barrel.

To my mind, Phoenix, Golden State and OKC are the only other teams that can feasibly make a run at Houston's spot. I don't think it would take a huge amount of luck for OKC to have a better season than both Phoenix and Golden State (some luck, yes, but it doesn't seem all that far fetched).

I would take the over at 33 and the under at 37

@Cpt. C-Note

Under at 36 wins.

I think that in 2010 we make the playoffs, because our team alone would improve to about 44 wins and our lottery rookies will help us out with winning at least 3 or 4 more games. So i say playoff team at around 48-34 in 2010.

@Sammy
*just missing the playoffs.

P.S. I do think the playoffs are a possibility... not likely but I do think this team has a legitimate chance.

I'm expecting 37 wins and wouldn't be surprised with just missing the lottery around .500. 33 and under and I'm disappointed. If you accept that the Thunder were a true talent 20-30 team (as opposed to a 23-59 team), that's a win percentage of .400. Meaning the team that took to the court in the second half would, over a full season, net 32.8 wins. I'm tacking 5 wins onto my expectations because of the addition of James Harden, full seasons from of Livingston, Krstic, White, and Thabo, and improved play from Westbrook.

KD said that anything less than the playoff is a failed season. (can't remember when/where, but he said it.)
I like his leadership and optomism. COME ON 8 SEED!!!(I know I'm about a season ahead of myself...)

That's kind of what I was thinking. I would be very disappointed with a sub-30 season and would be blown away if they hit 40.

The improvement in guard play from the beginning of last year to should be pretty dramatic if things go right. Sefolosha and Livingston had already added quality minutes to the team and improved overall play. The addition of Harden, with his quality shooting, court vision, high IQ and ability to play the point in certain situations should really improve things for all involved this year. And all that is before they bring back a much improved (keeping my fingers crossed) SOPHOMORE point guard sensation Russell Westbrook.

And there is at least a chance that they improve interior play over last year with the addition of White and Ibaka and perhaps Mullens.

I just don't see how they could miss the 30 mark. And if things really gel, well, look out.

I haven't decided what I think a reasonable win total is. Right now I think 30-35.

Of course they'll be inconsistent. Like all young teams. The best part will be those games against quality teams when the kids are putting it together. That's when they'll start making believers out of the rest of the league. But the real test will be when they start to believe themselves.

Playing 0.500 basketball is a realistic goal. They'll probably start the season on the lower side but finish on the higher side. Just like last year. 2010/11 they're making the playoffs.

well we finished last season 20-30 so if you just put tyhat record over a whole season then thats 33 wins anyway so i do believe that we can add 5-7 to that also. i honestly think 40 wins is possible but i would settle for between 35 and 40

@Vince
41 is still too low for the West. The most vulnerable bottom playoff teams are NO and Houston. Everyone else is either just as good or morgaging their future trying to be a little bit better. Houston I don't think will fall far simply because they have a great defense to fall back on, and have pulled together more than once the past two years without their top players. NO could be worse, but there's no reason to believe that. They were only as bad as they were because of injuries. If they can't find a taker for Chandler, they'll be returning with the same team that nearly beat San Antonio in the WCF.

Danny :@Cpt
. C-Note
Will 41 wins (.500) be enough to wrap up an 8-seed next season?

It's a pretty reasonable question, actually -- everyone raves about the West, but remember that last year the 10th-place finisher in the West was Golden State with 29 wins. If Phoenix and Houston both drop off below .500 (not to mention New Orleans, than 43 wins - or worse - might do it for an 8 seed.

I do think our ceiling is in the 39-win range but I do think it will be fun to be on the board in March writing, "You know, if Dallas stumbles and we put together a winning streak..."

41 won't get anyone into the playoffs in the west, Utah was the 8 seed this year with 48 wins. And I don't see the Thunder being too close to a .500 team. Still nothing to write home about in the post, offensively or defensively, and we're still incredibly young at nearly every position. We're just a couple pieces away, a a year or two more of development, before we're a 45-50 win team. I predict 35 for this year. Anyone know when 09-10 schedules come out?

32 wins would reasonable. 35 wins is pushing it, but possible. Under 30 wins would be disappointing.

@Cpt. C-Note
I want to say 41, but without a significant defensive presence in the Thunder front-court that's probably a little optimistic. I think 37 would be a fairly solid season for this young team.

That said--with how the NBA has shaped this off season--what do you think it will take to make the playoffs?

Will 41 wins (.500) be enough to wrap up an 8-seed next season?

I hope Vaden can get his shot to fall soon. It would be great to have a 3-point specialist. (I think all playoff teams have one, right?)

What's the realistic over/under on wins this year? I say 37.5

What say you?

Good analysis.

I was fairly encouraged by (Byron) Mullens's willingness to battle a little bit more in the paint today. He's clearly not ready to play against NBA caliber centers, but maybe there's hope!

And I think that it's becoming apparent that Harden is going to be a fine NBA talent--he has amazing fundamentals (for a rookie especially), and he has an athleticism that I definitely did not expect.

I'm excited for the season already.

Also, congrats on the new gig, Royce. Your name seemed really familiar to me, and then I remembered that I you once wrote for the Daily. Cool!

I think Russell is really showing how hard he's worked this summer with his performances in these games. He's added all kinds of new wrinkles to his game, and for the first time I can say he's been looking more to create than to score (and he's scoring more efficiently). Very nice few games for Russ, hope it translates into the regular season.

Mullens is just inconsistent. He has project written all over him, but he's more polished than I anticipated. Serge Ibaka is blowing me away.

I wish I would have seen more of the game, but it sounds like things are going well enough. Other than Vaden, there haven't been any serious disappointments (although I do have some concerns in some areas).