Comments on: How the Thunder can contend for a title

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:08:24 +0000

Er… Allen is just short of 20k at the moment but will get there.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:04:10 +0000

Allen is #2 on 3s made all-time and has a good shot to end up #1. He is over 20,000 points and as a Celtics champion I doubt the HOF in Mass would leave out a hoped for tourist draw.

Pierce is getting towards 20k and probably hits 25k and could go higher depending on health and how long he wants to play.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 00:24:29 +0000

Yao is only about half way thru his career so his cumulative score isn’t as high as older players. There should be a table by age to project ultimate HOF probabilty rather than just probability based on stats to date. But he will probably get HOF with size and ethnicity helping if he needs it. Low voting for him on MVP hurts some.

By: Ryan Schwan

Ryan Schwan — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 21:11:24 +0000

Hey Joe. I feel warm and fuzzy to be quoted.

I didn’t say as much, but it’s always been my opinion it’s harder to find skilled, efficient scorers than players of mediocre scoring ability able to play defense. If you land two true Class A scorers and surround them with defensive specialists who can hit an open shot or two, you’ve got a good chance as long as those Class A scorers are at least competent at defense.

The key is first finding those scorers, and then giving them the appropriate support.

By: Jax Raging Bile Duct

Jax Raging Bile Duct — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 19:58:14 +0000

That’s a cool link Crow. I’m surprised to find Yao so low a probability. I’d bet he’ll make it more on a social agenda than a stats/championships agenda.

And Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have better chances than I thought.

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 19:08:22 +0000

Billups’ Hall of Fame chances put at 1 in 4 here
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

I’d guess it is higher but the HOF is run unfair people and a weird process. And I don’t respect their decisions.

Part of the offensive design question is salary management. If you can get a top level class A you are off to go a good start. After that you have to look at performance / salary and what else you can afford & when. If Green stays low class B that is the level you should pay him or move him.

By: Joe

Joe — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 15:59:37 +0000

The idea of having a sure fire HOF’er on a championship team is interesting. It makes me wonder if that would be Chauncey Billups on the Pistons that one year.

I wouldn’t really consider him a HOF, but maybe I am wrong.

By: Jax Raging Bile Duct

Jax Raging Bile Duct — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 15:54:53 +0000

Well of course there is no way to cover the entire spectrum of what it takes to win a championship in one blog post. But as a microcosm I think this holds merit. You always hear the phrase “Great one-two punch”, and the teams who have them, win. Especially, a diversified one-two punch. Kobe and Gasol are a great example. You need great defenders at the 2 and the 5 to have a chance at holding them down. Compare that to the one-two punch of Rose and Gordon in Chicago. Defensive success there only requires good backcourt or perimeter defense, not BOTH perimeter and paint defense.

I’ve also heard that it takes one sure fire hall of famer to win it all, but with the help of a 2nd ballot guy as well. Lately, it sure seems each championship team has at least two. Tim Duncan is sure fire, while Parker or Ginobli might be considered. Kevin Garnet is sure fire, and Ray Allen or Paul Pierce might be considered. Kobe is sure fire, Gasol might be considered. Every time Shaq has won it, he’s had a sure fire hall of famer with him. Kobe and Wade.

Anyway, I think the grading method works pretty well for this. LeBron is an A scorer, and he has several B scorers on his team, but they didn’t show up consistently enough to win. Which is why they’re B scorers, of course. I don’t know the numbers, but I’d say Rashard and Hedo are B scorers, both bordering on A scorers, who show up with their best game 6 games out of 7. And the one game they don’t show up, it’s because their shot isn’t falling, not because they didn’t give effort.

Now I’m rambling.

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 07:24:38 +0000

Joe I understood you are just looking at offense. My mentioning of defense beyond that was just my choice, an extension, an idea that was rattling around in my head and this seemed a decent place to put it and certainly not a criticism as I am well aware you see the full picture.

By: Joe

Joe — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 19:49:11 +0000

@Kev No, I didn't really discuss defense. It's an obvious conclusion that defense is half of the equation here, and of course we need to have two way players, but when you are the worst offensive team in the league in so many categories, but just a bit below average defensively, I think the offense is a good place to start.