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Thursday Bolts – 5.14.09

The full Draft Combine list: 52 players will be there in all and the list includes Blake Griffin, DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark, thunderbolt239Stephen Curry, James Harden, oh heck, you just click the link and look for yourself.

Darnell Mayberry writes about the “mythical All-NBA Fourth Team,” saying KD would have made it because he got 34 points and finished honorable mention. He goes on to say Durant could easily replace Pau Gasol, Paul Pierce, Tim Duncan or Dirk as early as next year. But then he says this: “What it’ll take, though, is at least 20 more wins for the Thunder and for Durant to string together an entire season of performances similar to those he showed us every night from January through the end of February. Durant’s numbers, which are already worthy of placing him on an All-NBA Team, are likely to increase again next season and only bolster his case. But of the players on this year’s All-NBA Teams, Dwyane Wade’s Miami Heat finished with the worst record at 43-39. The Thunder finished 23-59. A 20-game improvement for the Thunder next season is not far-fetched. And by the looks of it, neither is Durant earning his first All-NBA Team selection.” Hey, I’m all for 43 wins next year. But as we piddle through this offseason, I can just feel expectations beginning to rise. It’s not far-fetched I guess, but it’s kind of a long shot.

I played ESPN’s Lottery Generator yesterday, and OKC won the lottery three straight times. That was after about 50 misses, but still.

The Lost Ogle on the lottery and yes, they argue that Rubio might be the best choice: “Snatching up a point guard of that caliber could be the magic bullet to make the Thunder an instant contender.  Think about it:  the Bulls’ second best player is Luol Deng who isn’t great and was injured for the Boston series, yet they still nearly knocked off the defending champs.  Get a guy who knows how to run a team feeding Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, and Russell Westbrook, and suddenly everyone on the team is a potential all-star … A player like this does not come along often, whereas power forwards are a lot easier to find.  For that reason, I would be thrilled if the Thunder lucked into the #2 position just like the year they drafted Kevin Durant (and Greg Oden was the “safe pick” at #1).” Should I form a rebuttal, or not? Hmm… I will say this: Everybody is making the “Derrick Rose almost beat Boston!” argument, but why was that series even close to start with? Because Kevin Garnett was out for the Celtics. And what is Kevin Garnett? A dominant big man. Again, this article from yesterday. Next question.

SI has a top five of the best and worst owners in the NBA. Guess who’s not on either list??? That’s progress right?

Nate Tibbetts will have some new responsibilities with the 66ers: “Tibbetts will spend most of the summer with the Thunder in Oklahoma City. He’ll help with pre-draft workouts, mini-camps and summer leagues. He’ll absorb as much as he can from Brooks and his coaching staff before heading north to lead a 66ers squad coming off a 15-35 season. “I just think the big thing with Tulsa is the development and teaching these young guys how to be pros, just as far as work ethic and preparation,” Tibbetts said. “In the D League, guys come and go a lot but the thing we can control is getting good guys and getting guys who can work.”

David Berri looks at the MVP for each team: Looking at KD’s stats, he’s produced 10.5 wins, but that was 42.6 percent of the total wins, which was eighth best in the league. I also thought Berri’s “Team Wins Produced If Player Became Average” stat was very interesting. If KD simply were an average player, OKC would have lost three wins. Interesting.

ESPN has each team’s draft history and let me tell you, this franchise hasn’t drafted very well.

Malcolm Gladwell has a few interesting (I’ve been saying interesting a lot today) ideas about the NBA draft: “Another more radical idea is that you do a full lottery only every second year, or three out of four years, and in the off year make draft position in order of finish. Best teams pick first. How fun would that be? Every meaningless end-of-season game now becomes instantly meaningful. If you were the Minnesota Timberwolves, you would realize that unless you did something really drastic — like hire some random sports writer as your GM, or bring in Pitino to design a special-press squad — you would never climb out of the cellar again. And in a year with a can’t-miss No. 1 pick, having the best record in the regular season becomes hugely important.

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I think the chance that the Thunder draft stephon curry have to be at or near 0%

I just can't get the Thunder to have better odds than 11%

:) I kid...

Not sure how well that mock draft is actually working. I ran it 50 times and the Thunder never made it past the 4th pick, while the Bucks, with a theoretical 1% chance of winning got the 1st pick 3 times in a row and 9 times overall.

@Pennington

lol . . . I am just wishing for Blake, Curry, Harden, or Rubio . . .

@Kev
I just meant that one of the perennial cellar dwellers will waste a pick on him.

wait are we in that category?

What is the word on Chris Richard? I thought he played with the 66'ers? Has anyone seen him first hand? How does he look? Does he have any future with this team?

Speaking of Navarro, would anyone like to see him here? He can certainly shoot the three! What would it take? Too expensive to bring him? Is he a presti guy? Probably not, but an interesting thought to bring a little experience and shooting to the team. I guess to me it would depend on what it takes to get him and what his mind set is. I haven't seen a bunch of him, but when I did watch - he was just deadly on the three. Let me know what your thoughts are. By the way, I switched to some budlight tonight from the captain. So maybe its just the brewskies talkin! :)

@Joe

good point, but as a coach and a former low post player, I don't think he'd sign off on Thabeet. He could get overruled obviously, but they have other needs besides a project big man . . .

The Clippers seem like the type of franchise who would drool over Thabeet, even though they don't really need him...

Well apparently McHale isn't calling the shots anymore in Minny. He was told he could come back as a coach, but not at all as a front office guy.

I don't see the Wolves grabbing him - McHale already has Jefferson and Love . . .

Minnesota or Milwaukee or someone will draft Thabeet. He will be a bust. And no one will care because its the T-Wolves and the Bucks.

I was going to reply to the same effect - Morey (GM) has been great the last few years - I can't see him signing off on Thabeet . . .

It was probably like a Houston ballboy or someone who said that about Thabeet...

@Kev If that's true about the Rockets, that's really strange because they've typically been great at evaluating talent....Finding guys like Brooks, Lowry, Landry, Scola, Wafer, etc....They just seem to be really good at it...

I remember Sean Rooks. That makes me laugh a little.

dork :Hoopsworld just had a blurb about some of the people from the rockets thinking thabeet could be better than Olajuwon… kind of gave me a chuckle..

hoopsworld must be a comedy website . . .

I can't believe he used Sean Marks (or Rooks) in his defense of Thabeet's post prowess - that's just sad . . .

@Nix

agreed . . . It's simple; you can't have your main posst defender being afraid of contact . . . add in the fact that his post offense stinks and you have bust written all over him . . .

@Alex
Is that like Carlos Mencia being in the comedy business his whole life and never actually saying anything funny?

Skadosh

Sean Rooks? I had to look that one up too...He played 12 seasons in the NBA and yet had his career-high averages in all the major statistical categories during his rookie year...I can't believe he played 12 years.

@Alex

Maybe it was a typo Alex. When I read the article it said Sean Rooks, not Sean Marks.

Also, I had to look up Sean Rooks. From what I can tell, my grandma could have scored on him too.

From Chad Ford's article on Thabeet:

"He also showed good form in the post. His footwork still needs improvement, but he scored with both his left and right hand over former NBA big man Sean Marks."

Poor Sean Marks...He played less than a month ago in the Playoffs and yet Chad Ford refers to him as a "former NBA big man."

"Part of the reason Thabeet loved soccer was that to him, basketball looked like a contact sport. The players were meaner and more physical. He kept telling coaches he just didn't have what it took to play the game."

Not exactly what you are looking for when you draft a franchise center!

@Dylan
...well, yeah, what he said. :)

I think the point is that if you luck into the No. 1 pick, you thank your lucky stars and draft griffin.

if you luck into the No. 2 pick, you thank your lucky stars and draft rubio.

Still didn't address everyone's biggest concern and it can't in a workout scenario: grit.

It's been made abundantly clear that Thabeet does not like contact and for a post player, that's a giant red flag. As is the lack of confidence in his abilities. I hope more than anything that Thabeet becomes an amazing player who has a long and successful career, but he's going to take time to develop and I wouldn't personally take that big of a risk on a HUGE hit or miss prospect because this draft is too important to have the luxury of a miss.

And remember, Yi Jianlian wowed everyone in workouts, too. And that's saying something, because those plastic chairs they dribble around during drills can play some pretty tight defense.

Chad Ford has turned off the hate Thabeet button. (I haven't yet)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/columns/st...

Hoopsworld just had a blurb about some of the people from the rockets thinking thabeet could be better than Olajuwon... kind of gave me a chuckle..

I just noticed Taylor Griffin didn't get a combine invite. I wish he would of after reading Chad Ford's comments towards him.

@Nix

He's not worth 8-10 million - we can't overpay even though we might have the financial means to do that . . .

@J.G.

I'm on the Gortat bandwagon - I like what I see from him this year . . .

@Royce
cool - we can agree to disagree - hopefully they will be corrected - I'd just prefer a natural point at that position . . .

@J.G.
Definitely agreed...but I think it's going to cost you more than 4-6...I thought I read 8-10 somewhere but I could be wrong...

We're one of the few teams who can afford him...

We just have this awkward log jam at 4/5

Kristic/Collison/White/Green(whose really a 3)

@Nix
I say sign Gortat REGARDLESS of who we get in the draft. 25 year old big man who is mobile, blocks shots, loves to rebound and defend the post? Can't pass that up for $4-6 million a year.

@Pennington
It's a good question..

But I really doubt we'd go after Boozer in any way...and Bosh hates Toronto...I'm not sure he'll like OKC better and he would most likely leave the next season...

If you get Rubio just try to sign Gortat is an FA...he has a lot of potential...

@kev
No argument on the out of position, but I think that also boils down to him learning when to crash the boards and when to stay back on transition. Again, hopefully more of a rookie thing then an out-and-out disaster.

And there are actually quite a few comparisions to be made and parallels between RW and Durant's rookie seasons, especially turnover rate, FG%, forcing too much, being out of position (although in Durant's case it was coach mandated, hi-o! I'll be here all week!), etc. Yet both were still considered to be one of the top 5 rookies in the league (and rookie of the year for one).

@kev
Eh, what you're calling "serious flaws" I'm calling "rookie learning mistakes." I don't know if he'll be playing point guard in five years, but I think it's FAR too early to abandon ship.

@J.G.

it left him out of position several times a game - I'd say many times more than the 2-6 points he provided on the boards . . .

Ok here is how I see it. If we get the first pick, great. Take the big man from Norman. What do we do with Jeff Green though? I say we trade him for Rip Hamilton. Then our starting 5 is...RW, Rip, KD, Griffin, and Nenad. Off the bench we have Weaver, Thabo, DJ White stc.

But if we get the second pick, amd we take Rubio, what else do we do?

Do we pick up Boozer from FA?
Do we trade for Chris Bosh?
Or do we keep Jeff Green starting?

there is no comparison between Durant's rookie year and Westbrook's. I gave details where I thought Westbrook was faltering - and LOTS of rookies have good years without serious flaws in their game.

J.G. :@kev

Well, all I can say is that if you can’t accept it when a promising start is messing up on several levels…then don’t ever watch rookies, EVER.

*cough* Kevin Durant and Jeff Green *cough*

@kev
Well, all I can say is that if you can't accept it when a promising start is messing up on several levels...then don't ever watch rookies, EVER. :)

I definitely agree that a point guard who has only played point guard will have an advantage over a converted one. And yes, his crashing the boards did result in SOMETIMES being out of defensive transition position, but it also resulted in him scoring 2-6 points a game on put backs. That's the dilemma (or as I like to call it, the Wade phenomenon of risk versus reward).

Lastly, do you know how many people have mediocre shooting % who never even sniff 15 points a game on average FOR THEIR CAREERS, let alone their Rookie season?

@Nix
I don't see White being able to displace Collison anytime soon, especially at the 4, let alone the 5.

I have a question...

If we draft Blake who is our 6th man?
my answer: Livingston

If we draft Rubio who is our 6th man?
my answer: D.J. White (If he bulks up enough he could come in at the 5 before Collison..I know that's a stretch though)

@kev
K...sorry I didn't read were you said you would prefer Rubio at the one as well...

@kev
My point would be that if you draft Rubio you only have to develop RW's shot.

And you have a great core...pick up a solid big in FA or a trade and you're ready to go...

We all want an effective one. But if you have been a point guard your whole life, you have a CLEAR advantage over a converted PG. Your point is valid about stars taking time to gel. It took Nash and Parker several years to be stars. But at least they were already PGs before entering the NBS.

The 5 rebounds don't matter because he gets two of them on the offensive end. Usually that means he's out of defensive transition position (I've documented this in my posts in one or two of this years games). The 15 doesn't matter if you have a mediocre shooting percentage.

Sorry, I can't accept it when a "promising" starter is messing up on several levels.