Learning a little about lotto history
I’m a big history guy. No, not that kind of history. Sports history. And for some reason, I always convince myself that in sports, history repeats. Trends and patterns can sometimes show us the future. So with the lottery this Tuesday, I figured I should educate myself on some recent lotto history. Especially the history of where the team with the fourth worst record has ended up in the lottery over the last 15 years (the current lottery format was installed in 1994).
Teams with an 11.9 percent chance (or fourth best) have never technically gotten the No. 1 pick. Well, eff. The one time it happened was in 1994, but three teams were tied with a 20-62 record and the Bucks got it. The fourth best chance in that draft was the Bullets Wizards and they wound up fifth. The fourth best chance has landed the No. 2 pick two times in the last 15 drafts. Actually, the pick the fourth slot landed the most was the fifth pick (six times).
2008 – Memphis Grizzlies (3)
2007 - Atlanta Hawks (3)
2006 – Atlanta Hawks (5)
2005 – Utah Jazz (6)
2004 – Clippers and Hawks tied (Clips got third pick)
2003 – Miami Heat (5)
2002 – Denver Nuggets (5)
2001 – Vancouver Grizzlies (6)
2000 – Vancouver Grizzlies (2)
1999 – Toronto Raptors (5)
1998 – Vancouver Grizzlies (2)
1997 – Denver Nuggets (5)
1996 – Milwaukee Bucks (4)
1995 – Philadelphia 76ers (3)
1994 – Washington Wizards (5)
Ok, so that’s not great news. But there’s a first time for everything, right? Especially when you start looking at the past 15 winners and what chances they had. It actually almost seems the less chance you have, the better chance you have.
2008 – Chicago Bulls (1.7 percent chance)
2007 – Portland Trail Blazers (5.3 percent chance)
2006 – Toronto Raptors – (8.8 percent chance)
2005 – Milwaukee Bucks – (6.5 percent chance)
2004 – Orlando Magic – (25 percent chance)
2003 – Cleveland Cavaliers – (22.5 percent chance)
2002 – Houston Rockets – (8.9 percent chance)
2001 – Washington Wizards – (15.7 percent chance)
2000 – New Jersey Nets – (4.4 percent chance)
1999 – Chicago Bulls – (15.7 percent chance)
1998 – Los Angeles Clippers – (22.5 percent chance)
1997 – San Antonio Spurs – (21.6 percent chance)
1996 – Philadelphia 76ers - (33.75 percent chance – had two lottery picks)
1995 – Golden State Warriors - (9.4 percent chance)
1994 – Milwaukee Bucks – (16.3 percent chance)
Looking up and down that, the team with the best chance has is only 2 for 15. In fact, the third slot has won the lottery the most times with five. Really, it’s anybody’s game. We shouldn’t even rule out Phoenix or New Jersey or Toronto winning this thing. Because it can absolutely happen. The lowest OKC can fall is the seven spot, but the fourth worst record has never fallen past six.
And just because I looked it up, teams that landed the second slot and their chances. Interesting that very few long shots have ever snuck in to the second slot (the lowest was the Clippers at 2.9 percent in 2001).
2008 – Miami (25 percent chance to win the lottery)
2007 – Seattle (8.8 percent chance)
2006 – New York (19.9 percent chance)
2005 – Atlanta (25 percent chance)
2004 – Clippers (10.5 percent chance)
2003 – Memphis (6.4 percent chance)
2002 – Chicago (22.5 percent chance)
2001 – Clippers (2.9 percent chance)
2000 – Vancouver (12 percent chance)
1999 – Vancouver (25 percent chance)
1998 – Vancouver (15.09 percent chance)
1997 – Philly (12.24 percent chance)
1996 – Toronto (15.7 percent chance)
1995 – Clippers (25 percent chance)
1994 – Dallas (25 percent chance)
So technically no team with an 11.9 percent chance (or somewhere around there) has ever won the lottery. That can either depress you to the point of sleeping in a pizza oven tonight, or it could excite you because it’s bound to happen. The reality is, we have no idea what will happen. We really don’t and it’s stupid to even guess. All I know is that I’m excited about Tuesday so that I don’t have to keep thinking about this crap. And how about this – from now on we make the playoffs so we never have to worry about it again. Everybody good with that?
The lottery is gravy to me – I hope Presti feels the same – my theory is (absent a trade) you’re a failure if you enter the lottery. I’m with Royce – in the future let’s make the playoffs and render the lottery irrelevant . . .
how about for next year we make the playoff, and kick phoenix into lottery area. That sounds good to me.
I like that idea…being in the playoffs is much more exciting than trying to hope for #1.
@Kyle
amen . . .
Oh man…
It’s so crazy..I was raised a Phoenix fan…Charles Barkley was my hero…then the Hornets came and I quasi adopted them, but quickly went back to Phoenix when they left…Now I’m completely Thunder and I’m hoping the Suns become the worst team in history…geez…I feel like a band wagon fan, but I can’t put myself in that category because I never had a team of my own.
I’m beginning to think that if we get the #3 we can trade down to #5 and still get Harden…(just an easy way to pick up another late round pick for next year)
@Nix
I think you’re right. The more I think about it, the more I think if OKC doesn’t get No. 1 or 2, Presti is going to do something. Maybe not, but I think he’s going to try and do some moving around.
I think Harden should make a lovely consolation prize if we don’t pick #1 or #2- I think he is clearly the best fit on the board after Griffin and Rubio, and can’t see Presti jeopardizing our abaility to pick him up. I honestly don’t see us trying to wrangle for additional picks down the road. We have two first rounders next yer already- and 8 guys under contract that definitely merit time in a playing rotation (KD,Westbrook,Green,Thabo,Krstic,Collison,Collison and White- yep, DJ goes on that list too), with Ibaka on the hook for next year or the year after. I say screw future picks- add a quality veteran or two through trade/free agency- Griffin,Rubio or Harden- and let the good times roll from there.
Sorry- for some reason put Collison in there twice and left off Livingston.
@Anonymous
One extra pick can go along way in a trade…
Certainly you don’t drop from #3 to #5 if it means losing Harden…
It really all depends on what Presti sees. He could completely pull out of the lottery if he feels like it. Presti is the master at doing things no one would expect and a year or so later you call him a genius for it…
I’m completely fine with getting out of this draft (if we don’t get the #1 or #2) and getting a ton of picks in the next draft where EVERYONE will be trying to make cap space so they can sign people in that amazing free agent class…
Picks=More Money=Cap Space=High Profile Free Agents
Sorry…Just to kind of further that thought…
Teams are known for making gutsy moves to bring in players…for example… Mavs trade Harris for Kidd so they can win now.
What’s to keep the Pistons from trading Rip so that they would have the Cap space to try for a big name in that FA summer?
What if Toronto is willing to trade Jose Calderon or Jason Kapono away in order to re-sign Bosh and some other big time FA?
I know Bosh isn’t happy in Canada, but the point is…Teams do crazy things to get Free Agents and that means dropping excellent young players to get a Super Star Vet…
In order to get a great FA you have to have Cap Space and with picks we can provide that…
We definitely want to get a FA or two when the opportunity presents (helloooo Gortat?), but it’s also important to get these young guys and develop them. When you are getting good players in the draft, they will play for you for the first 4 years or so at an incredible discount on their rookie deal. It’s when you have to resign them that it gets ugly. It’s a great opportunity to see them and learn about them and see if they are the guy that you want to go to war with.
I think there are guys that can help us in this draft at both draft spots in the first round, even if we go #7. Especially considering that Swift and Mason and Rose and hopefully Damien could be elsewhere next season. So there are roster spots to fill.
Also, Portland has 4 second round picks and can’t possibly use them all with their already jam packed roster. It would be an easy thing to get one or two of those babies.
If the miracle did happen, and we got Blake, I would even be in favor of trading Nick, my favorite player, so that there wasn’t a log jam with the bigs. He would fetch something of value.
@Joe
Good points Joe as always.