Comments on: Tulsa 66ers report; White and Weaver recalled

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 06:22:57 +0000

The current starting lineup is 0 good player pairs and 4 bad ones. Out of 10 pairs. That’s not good and I’d guess it will be an uphill struggle to make it work. the poor +/- lineup results is in synch with the pair data.

Westbrook – Weaver – Green – Collison – Krstic? 3 good, none bad.

Have they tried it? Not a single second all season. Tried hundreds of lineups but not this one. What up Sam?

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 05:29:27 +0000

Both Brooks good and bad pairs might need to be raised some as the 2 accounting methods weren’t exactly equal but the big overall difference would remain.

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 05:22:45 +0000

My average lineup has 3 positive player pairs and 1.5 bad ones.

Brooks in these 2 games was roughly speaking at about .5 good and 2 bad ones.

Pretty big difference.

I might well be overrating this form of analysis but I’d say they are under using it too.

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 05:17:14 +0000

I have noted the good and bad player pairs here and there but I’ll note the good and bad ones again in a broad overview and in specific lineup sets by Brooks and by myself.

Which player pairs are “best”? Hard to say without the adjusted player pairs but using some judgment it looks like the following:

Westbrook- Collison
Sefolosha- Weaver or Collison
Durant …
Green – Weaver
Collison – Kristic
That is really all that might be =consider better than normal.

How many times did my lineup rotation hit these 5 pairs? 20 times. An average of 2.5 times per lineup.

How many times did Brooks hit them in the Portland game? Just 4 times. Once a quarter. How many times did brooks hit them in the Portland game? 4 times. Obviously they aren’t steering the ship by this. Very different results in these games but that isn’t a surprise. Thunder are the 5th most inconsistent team in the league by one study.

I’d certainly recommend a lineup rotation that favored these best pairs far more heavily. It is still guessing but I think it is more likely to be better guessing, better fit.

What about the really bad ones? they are:

Durant- Sefolosha, Green, Kristic
Green -Sefolosha

How many did Brooks play in 2 previous games? 12 and 16.
How many did I use? 16. I should and probably could reduce that.

So I tried a rearrangement and got 26 good pairs and 12 bad ones. In a few minutes work.

Westbrook Livingston Durant White Kristic
Westbrook Sefolosha Green Collison Kristic
Livingston Weaver Durant Green Kristic

Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Green Collison
Westbrook Livingston Durant White Collison
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Green Collison

Westbrook Livingston Durant Collison Kristic
Livingston Weaver Durant Green White
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Collison Kristic

Livingston Weaver Durant Green Kristic
Westbrook Weaver Durant Collison Kristic
Westbrook Sefolosha Durant Green Collison

Westbrook 36
Livingston 24
Weaver 28
Sefolosha20
Durant 32
Green 28
White 12
Collison32
Kristic 28
240

Does it have glitches? Of course. Does it have merit? I think so.

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 01:06:46 +0000

Sefolsha SG – Durant SF -14 in the 3rd. That ain’t fit.

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 00:44:48 +0000

Sefolsha SG – Durant SF puts up another stinker first quarter -13 in less than 10 minutes. Are they going to keep doing that the rest of the season?

Want to make room for White and possibly another big? Slide Durant and Green down some or cut one or both’s time or cut Collison or Kristic’s. I’d do some of the first two more than the latter.

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 00:19:30 +0000

Could you play some with Durant SG / Livingston SF on offense and the reverse on defense? Maybe you call that Durant playing SF still or you could say it is a little different. Could Livingston playing more inside, making hand-offs to cutters or slipping past a big guy work? Might be worth a few minutes look. Might be better than Westbrook-Livingston-Durant all stacked outside.

By: Crow

Crow — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 23:46:40 +0000

If you limited Durant to SG when playing a sub, who is not quick or a good finisher, or a good shooter period and when Durant’s outside shot is falling, and they have the lead or are way behind for 2-4 minute stretches does it work ok? Not great, just ok for the team, which would be an accomplishment given Durant’s overall adjusted and raw +/-? Presti can check those stats is he wants to. Better to know than not know.

By: Crow

Crow — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 23:35:56 +0000

Trying Durant at PF another 50 -100 minutes would probably as or more useful. But that creates even more overlap between Durant and Green.

By: Crow

Crow — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 23:24:11 +0000

But if you or they have totally given up on Durant at SG at all that is fine. I wouldn’t use it more than 8 minutes and I wouldn’t “want” to use it period. If Presti gets the right starting SG they won’t have to. He hasn’t yet.