Russell Westbrook: the future at point guard?
Russell Westbrook had an interesting quote last week. He said something to the effect, “I know what I’m doing wrong and I know what I need to improve on, but with 82 games and playing every night, it’s not easy to change and learn on the fly.”
Nailed it, young fella. That’s why players get better year-to-year. They have a summer to reflect and take a breath. They can watch video, slow down and focus on details. Instead of just watching a little tape and getting an earful from a coach and then turning around and playing that night with all those thoughts running through their head, they can take time and progress naturally.
Some have been grumbling lately about Russell. He’s not a point guard. He’s a two trapped in a point guard’s body. He’s solid but he’s not the point guard of the future. He takes too many bad shots. He forces it all the time. Way too many turnovers. He’s not getting it. And on. And on. And on.
I can understand those gripes sometimes, especially when he tosses up seven and eight turnover games. I’ll admit to having headbutted my coffee table on more than one occasion when Russ forces a pass or takes a quick shot. The fact that he’s shooing 39 percent with over four turnovers a game this month is understandably frustrating.
But sometimes while we watch, it’s easy to forget what’s going on. He’s a rookie that’s never exclusively played point guard, even in college. Most didn’t think he was worthy of being the No. 4 pick. Most thought he would be a “project” or just a defensive stopper. And now look at him – possibly the Rookie of the Year and averaging 15 points, five assists and five rebounds, something not too many rookies have ever done. Seriously, that list is pretty thin – just nine other rookies have ever done it with names like LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson on it. Uh, that’s pretty good.
He does have his faults though. Sometimes it seems like he goes tunnel vision and completely forgets he has four teammates on the floor with him. He knows he can get by almost anybody, so he’ll penetrate and force a bad shot. Or he’ll drive and try and squeeze a bounce pass through a crowded lane. I don’t get the same feeling when he has the ball in his hands as I do when I watch Tony Parker, Deron Williams or Chris Paul. I don’t get that, “He’s in total control” feeling. With those three guys, you know they are looking for a teammate to set up and shooting is kind of their Plan B. With Westbrook, I feel like right now he kind of has to pick one or the other. Am I going to score? Or am I going to pass? Score! OK dribble-drive! The game is moving so fast that I don’t think he’s been able to really visualize plays and slow things down. It’s all in the moment.
It seems like Westbrook goes Point A to Point C, totally skipping B. Point A is getting around the man guarding you and into the lane. Point C is the choice of passing or taking a shot. But Point B is the crucial part that hasn’t slowed down and entirely clicked for Russ. It’s the part where you actually make your decision. I’ve gotten around my man, now what do I do? I’ve got Krispy popping at the top of the key, KD on the wing and Uncle Jeff cutting to the bucket. Or I could throw this lob to Thabo. What to do, what to do… Instead, Westbrook seems to skip Point B. It’s straight from A to C. Shoot or pass, right now!
Chris Paul is the master of Point B. Get into the lane, take your time, assess the situation and then make your offensive move. Westbrook starts to the cup and either finishes at the rim, gets it stripped or gets fouled trying. As easy as it is for him to get aroud defenders, he just needs to slow down and survey his options. He does this sometimes and it results in easy buckets and good kickouts. But it needs to be something he does everytime, all the time. Once that happens (and I really, really think it will) he’ll be in the company of Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Devin Harris and anybody else. Westbrook can be a great point guard. He has every tool necessary. He’s just learning right now and the results are coming, albeit sometimes painfully slow.
Some people are obsessed about the so-called “rookie wall” and they think Westbrook may be hitting it with his last two games. Just seven and 10 points on 2-10 and 2-11 shooting. And he’s gotten to the line considerably less than he did last month. But one thing about Westbrook – he always seems to do at least one thing well every night. He never has a completely bad game. Against Minny where he had just seven points, he had 10 assists and eight rebounds. Against the Lakers he had just 10 points, but had six assists and five boards. The guy brings it every single night, and that’s something you have got to love.
And despite the poor scoring, I saw some major improvement in just the last two games. He went airborne with an idea of what he was doing. Instead of attacking the rim like he was on fire, he slowed down and dished to a cutting teammate (I specifically remember a sweet pass to Nick Collison for a dunk against L.A.). And while he’s a combined 4-21 in his last two games, two months ago he might have been 4-21 in just one of those. He didn’t force the issue late and try and make up the difference all on his own. He took just two shots in the fourth quarter against the Lakers and just three shots in the second half against the Timberwolves. (And one thing about Westbrook’s shooting percentage is so many times – I’m estimating three or four times a game – he is stuck with the ball in his hands after a failed offensive set with four on the shot clock and he has to take a tough, contested shot. So instead of being 6-13 for the game, he’s now 6-17 and it looks bad. Granted, maybe if he had executed the set better that situation wouldn’t have happened, but I digress. Whatever that means.)
You almost have to keep reminding yourself he’s a rookie. Alright, bad pass. He’s a rookie. Stupid shot! He is a 20-year-old rookie. Geez dumb foul! He’s just a rookie you know. Serenity now, serenity now. He’s started 54 games and we’re kind of getting used to him being the starting point guard. But as some have noticed, his rookie year is strikingly similar to Dwayne Wade’s. Wade averaged 16.2 ppg, 4.5 apg, 4.2 rpg and turned it over 3.2 times a night in 35 minutes a game. And I think he turned out alright. Tony Parker averaged just 9.2 ppg, 4.3 apg and 30 minutes a night his rookie year. Deron Williams averaged 11 points and 4.5 assists in 29 minutes as a rook. Chris Paul put up 16 and eight in 36 minutes as a rookie. And Russell Westbrook is averaging 15.7 ppg, 5.1 apg, 4.8 rpg in 34 minutes a night.
Sure his shooting percentage is low (40 percent from the field and 29 percent from three), but remember, he is a rookie. Paul shot 43 percent from the field and 28 percent from three his first year. Parker 42 percent and 32 percent. Williams 41 percent. Now they’re all above 45 percent. The game started to slow down for them and I would assume Westbrook’s shooting percentage will too once he starts to settle. (He has some basic mechanic issues that I want to get into in the future though.)
I don’t know if Westbrook is the point guard of the future. I think he can be. But the future will just kind of have to determine that. I do know that he’s far exceeded expectations this year already and he’s made rapid improvement each month. His shot selection can drive me nuts at times, like when he’ll pull up from 20-feet with 19 on the shot clock, but think back to Kevin Durant’s shot selection his rookie year. Think back to Jeff Green a year ago. Both have come a looong way in their development. By next year, Westbrook may be right behind them. I want him to be this team’s point guard because I think he has every tool he needs to be a good one. We just have to be a bit patient with him. But if he wants to turn out like Dwayne Wade, I’m cool with that too.
He’s the point guard of the future. Give the dude some time.
Great work…We are used to the Wade comparison but I really like the Parker one…that would definitely be a better fit for our team…(at least…I think?)
I understand where you’re coming from. I can see how all the stats are similar for other point guards in their rookie years. I know he’s got room to improve and athleticism to burn.
But I just wonder, can you learn court vision, or is that something you either have or you don’t? How about ball handling skills? Some guys practice their whole lives trying to improve their dribbling and handling skills, and they only marginally improve. DWill and CP3 may not have had the best shooting % as rookies, but they certainly had ball skills. RW doesn’t pass the eye test for me. I’m not sure you can learn court vision, and I’m not so sure you can develop the kind of ball skills you need to handle the ball in traffic like a point guard should, not from where RW is right now.
I think court vision is his main obstacle like you said. But I hoping (fingers crossed) that comes when the game slows down a bit for him next year.
Does the American public not understand PATIENCE anymore? Damn people calm down. He’s a 20 year old rookie making the adjustment to playing the position exclusively which isn’t easy to do. I’d say he’s having a fine rookie campaing doing so. Now if he is still playing like a rookie in year 3 then I can understand all the B*****g.
The 15/5/5 list is indeed very small as Royce notes.
Westbrook is currently a bit below 5 on rebounds, but I get and accept the point.
Relax the list to 15/4/4 and there are 35 names.
But that is still quite an achievement.
Plenty of opportunity that usually only 5-10 rookies get their first season each season but still quite an achievement.
Some combo guards it is pretty obvious they will be that or mainly a shooter always. Russell could figure it out and became more PG. If he wants to. If Durant and Green ask him to and let him and remind him and won’t let him chose otherwise. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. He can still be useful in a different role if it doesn’t. Give it a shot.
15/5/5 is a list small for rookies.
And in general. An average of just less than 5 a season over last 5 seasons for the entire league.
Any only 11 different names. All but 2 have been named all-star.
Folks will probably come after Westbrook hard if he goes to unrestricted free agency. Watching what Rondo does and what happens with him may be instructive. But that is a long way away and may not happen.
Team is 24th on 3 pt FG% for season and the bottom has fallen out last 10 games with them hitting only 25%. Last in makes. Utah is the only .600 win team in bottom 10. But it is also true 6 of the 10 are within spitting distance of .500. Maybe the 3 pt game gets fixed / realized by year 4. I certainly would try hard / harder to do so.
Westbrook has big leads on Weaver and Thabo on pts/rebs/assists per game and even per minute but that is largely because of role- at the PG with the green light.
Weaver and Thabo pretty close on all 3 rates per minute. Thabo actually has shot up to clearly a career high on assist per minute. That is encouraging.
This article needed to be written, and I am glad you did it Royce. I’ve been thinking about this most of the season, and probably others have as well. The correct answer is your conclusion: We don’t know. But I agree with Lady Gee, we don’t make assumptions based on the rookie season. He definitely needs time. He ought to get a lot of mentoring in the offseason.
I remember a few years ago, after Luke Ridnour’s rookie or second season, can’t remember which, he sought out the recently retired John Stockton and took some time with him in the offseason. That can’t be bad. Both Washington guys, they had a connection. A good mentor would be fabulous for RW.
As far as Jax’s point, yes I truly believe you can learn good court vision and awareness, much as you can learn many other skills, like man defense, like rebounding etc. It comes in watching tape, coaching, mentoring, practice, on and on. Over and over. Repetion is the mother of skill. Like a quarterback reading defenses. In time it should come like second nature because he has been over the floor in his head tens of thousands of times.
But, I do believe to have that “truly great” floor vision and awareness may be a gift. I’m not sure RW will ever be truly great in that department, but I believe he is hardworking enough, coachable, smart enough, diligent enough to learn to be proficient and to get the guy the ball in the right place, and to see the court well enough for success.
Chris Paulian court vision is certainly a gift, a knack that only a few people are born with. But Russell, who we’re not quite sure of if he has that specific gift or not yet, has a unique gift all his own that almost no point guard out there has: A raw combination of strength, speed and explosiveness as the top athlete of his rookie class, which is just as much a gift as court vision–if not more.
You can’t teach speed, strength or explosiveness. You can improve upon what you have and become more efficient to utilize every ounce of those things within your possession, but you can’t ‘teach’ it. As a great man once said, “You can’t put in what God left out.”
But court vision can be learned, can be improved upon to a much more significant degree than a lack of explosive athleticism can (see: James Harden Syndrome).
All this to say, if RW can use what he has now and improve upon the more skill-driven aspect of the point guard position, then…look out, seriously. Would you want to try and stop him?
And we didn’t even talk about his knack for rebounding, steals or overall tenacity, did we?
Another thing to take into account is character…When you have a quality character guy surrounded by other character guys their habits will rub off.
Jeff and KD have character and offseason work habits, if those rub off on Russ we are in phenomenal shape. I hope we can add another guy in the draft with the same traits.
Exactly. With all his intanglibles and effort, just imagine his game once things slow down and he starts to “get it.” I genuinely picture him averaging 17-7-7. I don’t think he’ll ever be a great jumpershooter, but I think he can get relatively consistent, much like CP3. Like someone said, CP didn’t have a mid-range jay his rookie year either.
“Our” problem is… we had Chris Paul here.
Thats who we are comparing RW0 to… Thats the level of point guard play we’re used to… Thats what we expect to see…
Folks… the majority of NBA teams would absolutely love to have RW0. We have to step back and let him develop. The improvement we’ve seen this year alone is nothing short of amazing. Did you expect this when we drafted him? Honestly now… the answer is no. Now just imagine next year as he has settled in and his rookie season is behind him… Just how good is this young fella gonna get? Especially with KD and Green (and others) as teammates…
Is he Chris Paul?… nope. Can he be Chris Paul?… probably not. Can he be something equally impressive, but with different strengths?… you better believe it. Will he mature and become the player we think he will be?… oh, I’m looking forward to it.
RW improvement? Lets take a look two ways.
Pres and post all-star break, minutes adjusted:
Higher post break- FGAs, FT%, Rebounds by about .2
Worse- everything else
March monthly highs and lows compared to other months:
Best- FT%, defensive rebounding
Worst- 3 ptrs made, FTAs, offensive rebounding, turnovers, steals, blocks, fouls.
How much is rookie wall or RW just being so eager to make his mark and how much is the league knowing how he plays as an athletic freak now but not earlier? Someone said how good you are is only determined after there is a “book” on you and beat that book or at least battle that book pretty well.
Also, February’s competition was not so great overall. March has had it’s share of good teams though, so I’m not surprised to see RW with a dip this month.
I think Dwyane Wade is the wrong example. Wade is the single most important player on his team. He became “the man” from the moment he was drafted (Shaq came along the next year). Westbrook isn’t and shouldn’t be that guy for the Thunder. They’ve already got Durant. I think the real comparison is Tony Parker.
Parker was not considered a steal until his 4th or 5th year in the league. He is now one of the top PGs in the league because he has developed his skills, and more importantly, developed them alongside his teammates. Parker can be “the man” if he has to be. But when Duncan and Ginobli are healthy, they both find themselves taking more shots. Westbrook needs to figure out what Parker figured out. He needs to realize that his teammates can do far more than he can individually. I still wouldn’t say Parker has great court vision actually. But he knows his teammates. He doesn’t have to see Duncan, Ginobli, Bowen, or whoever else wide open on the wing or in the post. He knows, from playing hundreds of games with them, exactly where they’ll be.
Westbrook can be that player. His court sense will never be like Chris Paul, but he can get to know his teammates to such a degree that he doesn’t need it. He can improve his game to the point that he can carry the team for stretches, but he needs to focus first in trying to get his TEAM to play themselves into a position that he doesn’t need to take over.
RW might be described as Devin Harris on offense and Rondo on defense.
Wonder is he hangs with or idolized / idolizes Baron Davis.
He is a mixed bag, not exactly what I’d want for a role model but not totally dissing him either.
How much better will Westbrook be long-term than Ramon Sessions? Could easily have had him buying back in to tail of second round 2007 or holding onto one the 2nds they originally had.
Speaking of D-League guys, I wonder how Sean Livingston is doing?
Right now- with 2 1/2 yrs age advantage but equal NBA minutes played- Sessions is the better shooter, scorer, passer. Westbrook ahead on 3 pt FG% and rebounds. They are close on getting to line, steals, pts per minute this season and fouls. Sessions better overall PER, defensive PER and net counterpart PER. Westbrook’s 1-1 defense has slipped back to fairly average. The same level of team defensive efficiency when on the court- bad
Livingston is at about 8 pts, 6 assists, 4 rebs, 43 FG% in almost 30 minutes a game. Have to consider that encouraging but probably doesn’t get him more than a training camp invite, chance to prove it.
I disagree about court vision – it is NOT a gift, it can be learned. It can easily be coached IF the PG is willing, and that’s a big IF in US basketball today. If you are truly a team player, you will have the team game in mind and you can be caoched to always look for the open man. IF you are worried about your individual numbers, you will NEVER have good court vision because you are focused on yourself. This is why 2 on 1 and 3 on 2 breaks are routinely botched in today’s game.
I dont think court vision and awareness can be learned. I think Westbrook can learn to make better decisons with the ball that will lead to him becoming a better point guard. I believe his model should be Tony Parker, who is someone who blows by defenders and gets to the rim as Westbrook can do , but plays under more control when doing it and more often will finish, where as Westbrook does not. Parker also has a mid range game that Westbrook does not at this point , but I think he is more than capable of hitting that pull up mid range jumper that Parker hits all the time.
Consider Gary Payton. Of similar size and athleticism to Westbrook, Payton was college player of the year with a 4-year career, and he still had 2 sub-par seasons in the NBA before hitting stride. Westbrook is much younger than Payton. Have patience.
bad comparison – Payton was a pure point guard and (if I remember correctly) led the nation in assists in his last year of school . . .