Thoughts on our shooting guards – Part 1
I was thinking recently how similar Desmond Mason, Kyle Weaver and T-Bone Selofosha are in physical stature and then the thinking branched out into some similarities in their style of play. They are all within an inch or so in height (variously listed between 6’5″ and 6’7″) at around 6’6″, and all having skinny frames. Desmond is probably the bulkiest, but would still be considered thin. They all can play multiple positions and have a reputation for being above average defenders. None of them however possesses much of a jumpshot. These however are the guys that Presti has assembled at the shooting guard position.
I thought I would take a look at how these guys stack up so far and what direction the team might go with the position going forward.
First, here are Kyle Weaver’s averages so far this season as a backup wing coming off the bench:
G Min fg% 3fg% ft% stl blk ass rebs to pf pts
9 13.1 51% 40% 67% .4 .2 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.0 3.2
Based on Kyle’s numbers backing up the wing in limited minutes it seemed like a good bet that he might prosper playing alongside the starters when Desmond went down a few weeks ago. Per minute statistics usually correlate well when they are extrapolated out. Unfortunately for Kyle and the Thunder, here are his numbers so far as a starter:
G Min fg% 3fg% ft% stl blk ass rebs to pf pts
9 29.6 32.7 18.2 100 .9 .7 2.1 3.0 1.1 2.8 4.6
Kyle’s overall production has increased with his increased minutes, but his shooting percentages have fallen off a cliff. If you break that down into a metric, Kyle’s Win Score per 48 minutes looks like this:
Off the bench Win Score/48: 8.24
As a starter Win Score/48: 1.79
NBA Shooting guard average win score/48: 6.20.
Kyle went from being an above average NBA bench player (on a per 48 minutes basis) to a very below average starter. It’s sort of an interesting dynamic. On one hand when Kyle is coming off the bench he is usually facing the other teams bench players. Here he seems like a nice fit. He plays defense, hit some shots and basically kept the team rolling at that position while the better players got a breather. On the other hand, you might think that when placed alongside better players like Jeff Green, Westbrook and Durant, that the opponent’s focus would be on them and Kyle would be able to “get his” by sort of being the invisible man. Apparently not. It’s a double edged sword. Now instead of matching up against some lesser known on the bench, he has to guard Kobe Bryant (as he did last week) and Bryant is of course matching up with his on the other side.
The only statistic that attempts to allow for the defensive abilities of a player is the adujusted +/-. Here, Kyle has a + .64, one of only three players on the team who is positive. The adjusted +/- encompasses all of his minutes as a starter or bench player. On that basis Kyle seems to still be earning his pay. Another way to look at a player’s value is with on/off numbers. When Kyle has been on the court the Thunder have been slightly outscored (a little over 2 points per 10o possessions), but when he is off the court the Thunder have been outscored by 7.39 points per 100. Kyle has made a difference overall when he is in the game.
Tomorrow I will stack up his game against Desmond Mason’s and see how he fares. Any guesses?
Des has to be better…
Oh definitely, Kyle’s offense has gone down the drain since he became a starter. But he is still doing a great job defensively, so it’s not all bad.
I don’t think it’s because he’s matched against better players as a starter. He was regularly coming off the bench early in games and seeing other teams’ good players too. I think he is just nervous and feeling the pressure. He was more comfortable in a supporting role. As a starter, I think he tenses up, and that will screw up your shot.
He actually did hit a trey last night. So I think his shooting will come back as he gains confidence. Thabs may take over the starting 2 if what we hear about him is correct. But Thabo doesn’t have a great offensive reputation either. I think both will grow as offensive weapons over time.
Actually, I’m quite bullish on Kyle for the long run. He’s just taken on a big burden for a rookie (“trial by fire”) and it shows a bit.
I’m sticking by Weaver. He’s a rookie and he’s already done a decent job defensively. I think he can shoot but like you said, he lacks confidence. If in three years we’re sitting in the same spot with him, then yeah, I’ll change my mind.
Agreed. The similarities between Sefolosha(just rolls off the fingers doesn’t it?)and Dez were what jumped out at me first as well. A team could do a whole lot worse than a young Desmond Mason on defense, especially a team that likes to get out and run the way we seem to. Too many fast breaks for the opponent if we don’t connect on our end. I think he makes Watson much more expendable, because in a pinch he can play the point as well!
“I think he is just nervous and feeling the pressure. He was more comfortable in a supporting role. As a starter, I think he tenses up, and that will screw up your shot.”–Amen to this too.
Weaver didn’t take this team seriously at first, then they went and gave him the starting job (that’ll show him!) Temporary of course, and it will be curious to see how long before Sefolosha gets the chance to take that spot away….
No offense Royce, but nobody is giving Weaver three years to get it right! I like his game, but he better get real deadly, really fast to get the shooting guard position off the top of our wish list!
@girlballer
I meant that as, I’ll give Weaver three years before I’m standing outside his front door with a chainsaw if he doesn’t start knocking down those open looks.
Remember, Dez was no great offensive force either. Pretty much all season long, we’ve been using the 2 spot for defense mostly (not that we wouldn’t appreciate some offense if we can get/find it).
Dez did have a few nice moves, though. His post-up, back to basket, turn around and hoist a half-hook/half-floater. That was sweet. Not a move I’d expect to see from Weaver. (come to think of it, it was pretty suprising from Mason since he’s not a big).
Sure, lets just ignore Wilkins. ;-D
A young Peja with be the perfect 2 for this team…play solid D and hit the open shots…
They say Harden is that kind of player…(in the draft)
@Zorgon
Who?
Harden would be a real nice fit. Plays good D, is under control offensively, and definitely wouldn’t mind deferring to KD. Plus he could relieve Westbrook of some ballhandling duties. If you miss out on Griffin, Harden is a nice consolation prize.
I’d love Harden in Thunder blue.
I’m hoping that the offseason will be as productive for Bullweva as it was for Green last year. Uncle Jeff had a similar drop off in FG percentage when he started getting more minutes, but look at him now.
I doubt Harden is the answer. In fact, I don’t think there is a shooting guard in the draft this year that really addresses what the Thunder needs. Harden is easily the best of the bunch, but he’s not very athletic, AND he’s undersized. Bad combination. For the long term, I would like to keep Sofolosha as a defensive specialist and try to sign Ben Gordon to provide the outside presence that will relieve some of the pressure on Durant.
Gerald Green will be a free agent this Summer, too. He could be a good player to take a flyer on. If anyone ever teaches him how to defend, he will be really good.