Monday Bolts – 2.9.09
Men: Don’t forget the Slam Dunk Competition Valentine’s Day is just, uh, let’s see… five days away. And no, don’t email me asking for ideas. Because I don’t have any either.
UPDATE: Marc Stein’s Power Rankings are out and OKC is this week’s biggest mover, all the way up to No. 21: “Leave it to us to spoil the moment and fixate on the downside of OKC’s 9-9 record — with six of those losses by four points or less — in 2009: Winning the rights to Blake Griffin in the lottery gets tougher with every W.”
The Root on Kevin Durant: “Pardon the cliché; but change has come to Durant’s game. It arrived around the time that 
final appointees for cabinet positions were announced. In December, Durant mounted an impressive stat line: 25.1 points and 7.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 6.5 free throw attempts per game while shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from behind the arc. Then in January, he showed it was no fluke, notching 27.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 8.7 free throw attempts per game while shooting 49.4 percent from the floor and 39.6 percent from deep.”
BDL Behind the Box Score: “LeBron might be the league’s greatest offensive force, Dwyane Wade may have led the league in scoring for most of the year, and Kobe Bryant’s always a bad room service experience away from dropping 57 on you, but I’d be awfully surprised if Kevin Durant didn’t lead the league in scoring in 2010-11. I wouldn’t even mind putting money on him to lead the NBA in points per game next season. No weirdness or exaggeration. Just watch. At this rate, the kid is going to be right there. 39 jaw-dropping points for Durant on Sunday (OK, the four free throws he hit didn’t make my face go all funny, but the other 35 were crazy-hep), and it’s safe to note that this guy absolutely has it. I don’t care that it came against Sacramento, the league’s worst defense. Not interested. Durant is just as pure as they come. The next 17 years are going to be fun as hell.”
Sactown Royalty’s reaction: “When you don’t overcommit, you stand the risk of not really committing. This wasn’t so much a problem against OKC because no team in the league takes fewer threes than the Thunder. But it’s been a problem all year, and the lack of catch-up speed/effort also affects interior rotations. Spencer Hawes commits on rotations, but that usually results in an And-1. Jason Thompson commits on rotations, but that usually results in two free throws. There’s never a back-up plan. If a guard overcommits on a shooter to deny the open three, the player can step in and get an open jumper … because no one is backing up the initial defender.”
Sacramento’s beat writer left the Ford Center with bells in her ears: “My head is still ringing. Oklahoma City fans are loud, even if Spencer Hawes doesn’t want to admit it. As I wrote about in Monday’s Bee, Hawes was quite outspoken about his disdain for the Seattle SuperSonics relocating to Oklahoma City. He called it a “travesty.”
This Mock Draft has OKC taking someone other than Blake: “The Thunder, who have Jeff Green currently at the 4 spot, would surely not pass up on drafting another Hoya if Monroe drops this far. With Russell Westbrook at the point and Kevin Durant playing the 3, the center spot is the obvious position the Thunder would look to draft. With the basis that Thabeet is off the board now, OKC takes the best available player.”
A good story about Brian Davis and his move to Oklahoma: “The capital city of the nation’s 46th state is Davis’ seventh home. But the Sunday morning walks, as well as the outpouring of kind words and thoughtful acts, have convinced the 52-year-old he’d like to keep an Oklahoma address. “It’s always very, very peaceful, but always very, very striking to me,” he said of the memorial. “Every time I walk through there, I’m reminded of the phrase, ‘Tomorrow is not promised.’ So be as good as you can today. Despite all your good intentions, you may not get a chance to live them out tomorrow.”
With Malice’s Power Rankings – if teams were movie stars: “Oklahoma City: Elisha Cuthbert. Young, hot star that is oh so fine… that can appear shallow upon closer inspection.”
Desmond Mason wants to finish in Oklahoma City: “Desmond Mason long has been a fan favorite among Oklahoma basketball fans. Apparently that affection goes both ways. The Oklahoma City guard will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, but Mason, a nine-year NBA veteran, says he’d like to finish his career with the Thunder. “I’ve talked to a few people about that,” Mason said. “This is a special place for me. I’ve enjoyed my time here. I’ve enjoyed the things I’ve had going on in my life here and the opportunities I’ve had here. “Obviously this summer I’ll be an unrestricted free agent, but if I had the opportunity to finish my career here, it would just be icing on the cake. I have a lot of people here who support me and that I care about, so it would be a great opportunity for me.”
SI’s top five draft picks: “The 6-10, 250-pound Griffin is the consensus No. 1 pick and a potential All-Star. “He’s not a polished offensive player, but he’s bigger and stronger than everyone he plays against right now,” a GM said. “And that’s another thing in college basketball: It’s so small. There are 6-7 centers everywhere and 6-5 power forwards all over the place, and there’s just very little size and length. And so that’s why some of the big guys aren’t quite as good, because they’ll have such an adjustment to make in the NBA. But Blake Griffin is strong and quick and athletic, and he plays with intensity. He can’t possibly fail.” Geez. Thanks a lot Mr. Scout.
Trade outlook for each team: “Outlook: The 11-win Thunder have some of the league’s most desirable assets. Because interim coach Scott Brooks has done a good job settling players into their roles, a major shakeup is doubtful. But don’t expect GM Sam Presti to pass up a cost-cutting, draft-pick-returning deal for Watson or one of his big men.”
Spencer Hawes fashion statement backfired: “Melody Gutierrez of the Sacramento Bee reports that Hawes also wore a Sonics jersey on the team flight. Unfortunately, the only he had in a size that fit was a Nick Collison jersey. (They sell Nick Collison jerseys?) In perhaps a twist of Oklahoman fate, a key rebound late in the game bounced away from Hawes … into the hands of Collison. OKC went on to win, though Hawes played well.”
ESPN talking Amare trades, with a no-chance OKC deal that includes Jeff Green: “The Thunder would struggle to re-sign Stoudemire in 2010, especially if they weren’t a contender by then. If a big-market team such as the Knicks or Heat came courting, OKC could lose him for nothing, setting back the franchise. The Suns like Green, but is he enough? He’s been frustratingly inconsistent and just doesn’t look like the type of player you can build around.”
And if you’re an ESPN Insider, Scott Brooks on the trade talk.
That’s fine (about Green)… We’d rather keep him Green. Who wants Stoudemire anyway?…
Trade Jeff Green? Um… yeah. That will happen whenever one of the following happens:
a) Hell reaches 31 degrees fahrenheit
b) It’s one minute past 11:59pm on the 11th of Never
c) Hogs sprout wings and fly circles over the Ford Center
Ok, I’ve had an idea that I’ve been meaning to post. So I better do it before we hit the road and (likely) get spanked with two losses.
Everyone who follows the Thunder know it’s been a team in flux and thus not really fair to compare the current performance with that at the beginning of the season. Those who don’t simply look at the full season standings and think “wow, the Thunder really suck”.
You could divide the team’s performance into three phases.
1) the first 13 games under PJ where we played not-so-great and lost pretty much every game
2) the first 13 games under Scotty where we played much better and still lost pretty much every game
3) ever since, where we’ve been much improved (offense and defense) and have actually won quite regularly
The turnaround seemed to occur on New Year’s Eve when we beat the Golden State Warriors in a gritty and exciting performance. We were showing hints of improvement before then, but that really seemed to mark the point. I will call this the “Great Turnaround”.
(continued in next post)
Thus I will divide the season (quite arbitrarily – so sue me) at the New Year’s Eve game. The early phase is called BGT for “Before the Great Turnaround”. And the remaining period is called AGT for “After the Great Turnaround”. The record for the BGT era is 3-29. Which is easy to remember – just think of Royce’s classic phrase “3 and FREAKING 29!!!”
The record of the BGT era is horrendous. Always will be. Nothing can be done about it. The AGT era, however, is fluid and (so far) looking pretty good. Given that we are 13-38 after the Kings win, that makes the AGT record 10-9.
10-9! That’s 0.526. Woohoo! We kick ass in the AGT era!!! (sort of)
So when someone mocks the Thunder’s record, you can say “Well, do you mean BGT or AGT?”
Royce ought to copyright that and make some T-shirts…lol.
Haha, I dig it Daniel.
I do think people still assume OKC is that crappy 3-29 team though when they say “the lowly Thunder” or how embarrassing it is to lose to us.
I don’t think they realize good we’ve been playing.
#21 in ESPN’s Power Rankings this week, #23 in SI’s, and #24 in NBA.com’s. Surprising to see that ESPN is looking at the downside of us winning like we have been…
OKC shouldn’t draft Griffin. The last thing the Thunder need is another 6′10 forward. James Harden is the way to go.
@Vega
There is no way, no way at all that Presti passes on Griffin. If Griffin is there when we pick, he’ll be the pick. Brooks can then rotate, mix and match, and play them together however he sees fit.
I’m pretty much sold that whoever Presti decides to draft will be an eye opening contributor. Presti just has the knack for finding the guys that turn heads. You could do a lot worse than drafting a local hero who’ll do no worse than lead all rookies in rebounds, and doesn’t mind being a high draft pick playing in a small market.
This year especially, when the draft class is considered weak, will be Presti’s time to shine. With 3 first round picks in a “weak” draft, he’ll have to turn on the magic to come up with 3 contributors.
Your post is sort of putting in words what I’ve been noticing and thinking for awhile.
Before the season started, I made a little spreadsheet that I keep parked on Google docs where I have the score, the offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, turns, steals, fga, fta and such. Sort of a quick reference guide for me for the blogging. I highlight the wins with a green tint. For the longest time, there was only one line with green on it (that game 3 win against Minny), then 14 white lines before the next green, then 8 white lines before the next green, then 5 white lines before the next green, then the New years eve game against the Warriors. Since then there’s been more green than white, and never very long between green lines. It’s a totally different feel than it was in November and December that’s for sure.
If your interested, you can see the spreadsheet here:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pvKFOMzP1V7HC3j8rQSOBZw
Thanks for sharing the spreadsheet Joe.
So the drift is toward the Thunder playing slower and far more effectively on offense, though they turn it over more. 3 point attempts up 75% over November. Getting to the line more. PJ/Westhead were offensive jokes. The quick 2 point shooting was the worst thing you could do.
Generally good trends. Only 80 shots to divide now though. Can they really fit another big time scorer in and make it a big 4 instead of big 3? Nobody else would get more than a few shots.
But if they make it a big 4 I hope the new guy is a real #2, moving Green into a better #3 position and sorry Russell at this point you should be #4.
But are Green and Westbrook going to settle for #3 and #4? Heck no. So I guess try to blur it and let the other 3 after Durant all think they are #2. Maybe they will trade off night to night. It could work or not. But seems like Presti for all the talk about D is trying to win with offense. Now maybe more defense comes with experience and feeling good and pride. Maybe.
NewsOK just posted a blurb that sources say the mascot will be a bison to be unveiled at the Hornets game on Feb. 17.
Thanks for the heads up Martz.
@AD
My dream scenario sees us getting Boozer- either through a sign and trade by Feb 19th, or at the season’s end, and picking up Harden in the draft. If it looks like that’s not going to happen, I’m for moving heaven and earth and future 1st rounders to move up and get Griffin (assuming the lottery Gods don’t hand him to us on a platter).
Yeah, we tossed this around earlier in the season when we were wondering “how they would play”. It looks like the model is something like the Trailblazers with speed=good offense, just enough defense, but a fast version. It is actually more like Denver’s model, except Denver actually plays good defense, and we really are below average.
Does any one really see us taking Monroe if Harden is still on the board? I understand taking Blake because he is the best player, but why would we add to the logjam at PF by adding Monroe when a talented SG is on the board?
Boozer? For one thing, I’m not comfortable with his health, and I don’t know that Utah would send him to another team in the division. As more time passes – and the fact that the players other teams want are the ones we don’t want to trade – I’m less inclined to think Presti is going to make a big move before the deadline.
Yeah Joe I sometimes repeat myself, sometimes on purpose, though sometimes I could pass on it.
It will interesting to see how far Portland gets with their offense/defense split this season and how happens long-term and same with Denver.
Right now 13 of the best 15 offenses are playoff seeded and 12 of the top 15 defenses. Be one of the other and you have about an 85% chance of being in the playoffs. The top 4 in both divisons are top 15 on both so that is clearly the long-term goal but hard to do. In the west Houston and Utah achieve this and still rank 6th and 8th.
Make that 9th for Utah at the moment.
The worst a top 15 offense is ranked is Golden State at 11th in the conference (not “divison”). You don’t want to be like them.
The worst a top 15 defense is ranked is Charlotte at 13th so you don’t want to be like them either.
The worst a team ranked 20th or better on both is Indiana at 12th so that ultimately isn’t enough.
The worst that a team ranked 15th on one and no worse than 20th on the other is 9th. That is the minimum to shoot for in near-term.
The only way to beat a 20th or worse rank is to play in the east and be at least average on the other.
Actually Portland is doing it. 21st on defensive efficiency but 2nd best on offense. Hard to follow that latter example, especially this Thunder team as currently constituted. But with time, change in personnel and prospects.
Over last 18 games Thunder most like efficiency split of Phoenix. Good for Thunder. Not good for Suns.
Improve point differential by just 3 points from they’ve put up in this stretch and you should not only make playoffs (with a fresh season start), you should win first round. A lot of ground covered. From here you got to sweat the fine details.
With how well the Thunder are playing, it is unlikely that they will get the 1st pick, and since Griffin is pretty much the consensus 1st pick, all of this discussion is pretty much pointless.
I didn’t mean revisiting this conversation was bad by any means. No worries on repeating. I enjoy good basketball conversation.
Phoenix is a very good comparison; hadn’t thought of them. Their roster makeup is nothing like ours, but the results are similar.
Don’t be so sure about that Vega. 2 and 1/2 years ago, the Blazers had the sixth worst record and got Oden with the first pick. That same year, Boston had the second worst record and got the fifth pick, Jeff Green, which we now have. Since 94, the worst team has only gotten the first pick two times. Last year, the Bulls had the eighth worst record and got the top pick Derrick Rose, while the worst team, the Heat got the second pick. We were the second worst team and got the fourth pick. It is not as simple as worst=first pick.
You are right Phoenix’s roster makeup is nothing like this team. So they may not be the best comparison in one way but it also shows that individual player details get swallowed up in team sums. And ultimately it is a game decided by team sums. Wherever possible Presti needs to improve shooting, cut turnovers and improve defense. By these standards Westbrook probably has to still work on 2 out of 3, Durant and Green at least one, same for Weaver, Kristic and Collison. New players hopefully won’t be deficient in more than 1 and push team numbers up a bit net.